AI verdict
Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Levski Sofia. Full breakdown below.
Picks locked before kickoff results verified after public accuracy log →
02.09.2026 17:00 UTC
Bulgaria. League 1
Slavia Sofia go head-to-head with Levski Sofia in football, in Bulgaria. League 1, on 2 September 2026. Our Glicko-2 rating model leans to Levski Sofia: roughly 68% to win. The bookmaker consensus (2 books) implies about 69% for the same outcome. The model puts the chance of a draw at 21%.
Latest form: Slavia Sofia 1 won, 3 drawn and 1 lost; Levski Sofia 3 won, 0 drawn and 0 lost. Levski Sofia come in having won their last matches. On the Glicko scale it is 1473 for Slavia Sofia against 1724 for Levski Sofia - a gap of 250 points.
Our model and the market consensus broadly agree on this match. Model confidence in the favourite is moderate. That is a 1-point gap to the market. On a hit-rate basis the steadier pick tilts to a covered market on Levski Sofia - double chance looks calmer than a clean win. Key markers: an edge of 250 Glicko rating points, the model's 68% for Levski Sofia. Below on this page: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PropickAI AI breakdown. This is a probability read from our model plus the market line, not a guaranteed outcome.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)
2 Levski Sofia — 68%
Model estimate: win Slavia Sofia 10.8%, draw 21.3%, win Levski Sofia 67.9%. Model favourite — Levski Sofia.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Double chance — Levski Sofia or draw 1.02
How often this pick wins on our settled history — not a profit forecast.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Form over 10 matches (SStats)Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
Market consensus
Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.
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Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Match markets| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.50 66.7% |
| yes | 2.49 40.2% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.12 89.3% | 1.14 87.7% |
| 1x | 3.37 29.7% | 3.50 28.6% |
| x2 | 1.01 99.0% | 1.02 98.0% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 11.60 8.6% | |
| X | 2.56 39.1% |
| 1.66 60.2% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1 | 1.71 58.5% |
| Under 1 | 2.03 49.3% |
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pari | 11 | 4.6 | 1.32 |
| Winline | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.31 |
| Fonbet | 11 | 4.6 | 1.32 |
| Betcity | 11 | 5.2 | 1.28 |
| Liga Stavok | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.32 |
Slavia Sofia
Septemvri Sofiya
Botev Vratsa
Lokomotiv Sofiya
Arda
TsSKA Sofiya
Levski Sofia
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Lokomotiv Sofiya
Dunav Ruse
Full head-to-head history: Slavia Sofia - Levski Sofia
The Slavia Sofia - Levski Sofia breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Levski Sofia. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.
Live odds for Slavia Sofia vs Levski Sofia from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.
September 2, 2026.
