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Bulgaria: First League Standings
Bulgaria: First League Standings
3-y Round 03.08.2026 18:15 UTC
03.08.2026 18:15 UTC 3-y Round
Not started

Bulgaria: First League Standings

Spartak Varna - Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Football
Stadium Spartak (Varna, Bulgaria), vmestimost: 12000
Referee Nikola Popov (Sofiya, Bulgaria)
Spartak Varna
Spartak Varna
- : -
Not started
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Spartak Varna face Lokomotiv Plovdiv on August 3, 2026 in the Bulgaria: First League Standings.

Recent form (W-D-L): Spartak Varna 0-1-1, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-0-1. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PrognozAI AI breakdown.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv — 40%

Pure model vs market (2 · Lokomotiv Plovdiv): model 34% · market 40% Δ −6 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Spartak Varna31.3%
X · draw28.9%
2 · Lokomotiv Plovdiv39.8%

Model estimate: win Spartak Varna 31.3%, draw 28.9%, win Lokomotiv Plovdiv 39.8%. Model favourite — Lokomotiv Plovdiv.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Lokomotiv Plovdiv (odds2.33) Score 0:1 confidence 50%
  • • Model backs Lokomotiv Plovdiv: probability 50% vs 43% on the line (odds 2.33)
  • • edge over the line +7 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 0:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Spartak Varna - Lokomotiv Plovdiv August 3, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Lokomotiv Plovdiv. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.10 / X 3.21 / 2 2.36

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.8%
1 30.5%
X 29.4%
2 40.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

First League
League table
Spartak Varna
#54 ptsGP 21-1-05:2
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
#83 ptsGP 21-0-12:2
Best price across 14 books
1 3.15 Unibet
X 3.30 Betfair
2 2.36 Pinnacle

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Spartak Varna
W-D-L 4-3-3 Scored 1.56 Conceded 0.90 xG 1.23 xGA 1.35 Corners 4.0
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
W-D-L 4-2-4 Scored 0.81 Conceded 1.00 xG 1.03 xGA 1.52 Corners 1.3

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
Spartak Varna
Rating 1558 xG 1.03 Win 31%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Rating 1556 xG 1.22 Win 40%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Spartak Varna 1 : 1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv
13.04
X3.20
22.32

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Match center
Stadium Spartak (Varna, Bulgaria), vmestimost: 12000
Referee Nikola Popov (Sofiya, Bulgaria)
Start 03.08.2026 18:15 UTC
Market 1 30.5% @ 3.10 / X 29.4% @ 3.21 / 2 40.1% @ 2.36
Match center

Spartak Varna - Lokomotiv Plovdiv

football, Spartak V - Lokomotiv Pl, 3 avgusta 2026, smotret onlayn translyatsiyu matcha. Vo skolko nachalo matcha Spartak V - Lokomotiv Pl, gde smotret pryamoy efir. Championship Bolgarii po futbolu (First League) — 2026/27, 3-y Round.

Form 2/2 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Tournament Referees Line
More needed
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Spartak Varna 30.6% 31.3%
Draw 29.3% 28.9% draw risk
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 40.1% 39.8% market and model agree
xG - 1.03 : 1.22

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 31.3% / 28.9% / 39.8% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,481 / 1,498 Spartak Moscow / Lokomotiv Plovdiv
RD 292 / 248 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 897-2,064 / 1,001-1,994 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.33 market consensus · no value · model 39.8%
X 3.20 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 3.06 market consensus · no value · model 31.3%
Double chance
12 1.31 market consensus · no value · model 71.1%
1X 1.55 market consensus · no value · model 60.2%
X2 1.33 market consensus · no value · model 68.7%
Handicap
2 0 1.64 market consensus · line only
1 0 2.16 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.92 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.81 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.05 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.72 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 2.05 48.8%
yes 1.72 58.1%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.29 77.5% 1.32 75.8%
1x 1.53 65.4% 1.56 64.1%
x2 1.32 75.8% 1.34 74.6%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
3.59 27.9%
X 2.17 46.1%
2.94 34.0%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.80 55.6%
Under 1 1.90 52.6%
Match center
Spartak Varna
L D
26.07 14:00 UTC Bulgaria: First League Standings
Spartak Varna 1:3 Cherno MoreCherno More
17.07 14:00 UTC Bulgaria: First League Standings
Spartak Varna 2:2 TsSKA 1948TsSKA 1948
0 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.5 Scored
2.5 Conceded
1 Points
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
W L
26.07 16:15 UTC Bulgaria: First League Standings
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2:1 Septemvri SofiyaSeptemvri Sofiya
18.07 16:15 UTC Bulgaria: First League Standings
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0:1 LudogoretsLudogorets
1 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
3 Points
Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1 Spartak Varna
Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket
Team 2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Spartak Varna Team comparison Lokomotiv Plovdiv
2 Games 2
1 Wins 1
1 Draws 0
0 Losses 1
5 Scored 2
2 Conceded 2
4 Points 3
91 Attacks 102.5
46 Dangerous attacks 65.5
0 Big chances 0
10.5 Shots on goal 12.5
3.5 Udary v stvor 5
2 Games 2
1 Wins 1
1 Draws 0
0 Losses 1
5 Scored 2
2 Conceded 2

Spartak V Lokomotiv Pl 2 Games 2 1 Wins 1 Draws 0 Losses 1 5 Scored 2 Conceded 2 4 Points 3 91 Attacks 102.5 46 Dangerous attacks 65.5 0 Big chances 0 10.5 Shots on goal 12.5 3.5 Udary v stvor 5 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 3 Uglovye 4.5 2 Offsaydy 2 11 Foly 9.5 33.5 % vladeniya myachom 42.5 2.5 Warnings 1.5 0 Sendoffs 0 Rezultaty golosovaniya Iskhod v osnovnoe vremya 71% 15% 14% Double chance 43% 42% 15% CHAMP({ name: 'commentsWidget', params: { appId: CHAMP.comments['appId'], xid: 'match_1319982' } }); CHAMP('tournamentTabs'); CHAMP('swipingTabs'); CHAMP('match'); CHAMP('stickyVertical');