Bulgaria: First League Standings
Spartak Moscow face Lokomotiv Plovdiv on August 2, 2026 in the Bulgaria: First League Standings.
Recent form (W-D-L): Spartak Moscow 0-1-1, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-0-1. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PrognozAI neural-network verdict.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv — 40%
Pure model vs market (2 · Lokomotiv Plovdiv): model 34% · market 40% Δ −6 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Spartak Moscow 31.3%, draw 28.9%, win Lokomotiv Plovdiv 39.8%. Model favourite — Lokomotiv Plovdiv.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 2.05 48.8% |
| yes | 1.72 58.1% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.29 77.5% | 1.32 75.8% |
| 1x | 1.53 65.4% | 1.56 64.1% |
| x2 | 1.32 75.8% | 1.34 74.6% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 3.65 27.4% | |
| X | 2.18 45.9% |
| 2.89 34.6% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1 | 1.80 55.6% |
| Under 1 | 1.90 52.6% |
Spartak Moscow
Cherno More
TsSKA 1948
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Septemvri Sofiya
Ludogorets
Full head-to-head historySpartak Moscow - Lokomotiv Plovdiv
The Spartak Moscow - Lokomotiv Plovdiv breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
