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Bundesliga Germany

25.04.2026 13:30 UTC Match prediction Prediction

25.04.2026 13:30 UTC

Finished

Bundesliga

1. FC Heidenheim - FC St. Pauli

Germany Football

Stadium Voyt-Arena

1. FC Heidenheim

2 : 0

Finished

FC St. Pauli

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 1. FC Heidenheim — 40%

1 · 1. FC Heidenheim39.8%

X · draw26.7%

2 · FC St. Pauli33.5%

Model estimate: win 1. FC Heidenheim 39.8%, draw 26.7%, win FC St. Pauli 33.5%. Model favourite — 1. FC Heidenheim.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction 1. FC Heidenheim - FC St. Pauli April 25, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like 1. FC Heidenheim.

Strongest: 1. FC Heidenheim - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.37 / X 3.32 / 2 2.94
1X2 market: 1. FC Heidenheim 39.6% / X 28.3% / FC St. Pauli 32.0%
Glicko: 1. FC Heidenheim 39.8% / X 26.7% / FC St. Pauli 33.5%
Total 2.5: over probability 50.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.3%

1 39.7%

X 28.3%

2 32.0%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.0%

Over 2.5 49.3%

Under 2.5 50.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: X

Main outcome X

Agreement 2/4

Confidence 40.0%

Total Under 2.5

Score 1:1

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center

Start 25.04.2026 13:30 UTC

Stadium Voyt-Arena (Khaydenkhaym-na-Brentse)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model 1. FC Heidenheim 40%

💹 Market 1. FC Heidenheim 3962%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

1. FC Heidenheim - FC St. Pauli

1. FC Heidenheim: Win 2.30 1. FC Heidenheim: Draw 3.40 FC St. Pauli Win: 2.90 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.91 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.91 Individualnyy total golov 1. FC Heidenheim bolshe 1.5: 2.20 Individualnyy total golov 1. FC Heidenheim menshe 1.5: 1.62 In…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 2:0

Events 13

Statistics 24

Lineups 39

min Event Player Team

3' 3' Normal Goal | B. Zivzivadze | assist/sub out: J. Schöppner 1. FC Heidenheim

46' 46' Substitution 1 | Mathias Rasmussen | assist/sub out: Eric Smith Linus Lagerbom FC St. Pauli

46' 46' Substitution 2 | J. Fujita | assist/sub out: Martijn Kaars FC St. Pauli

56' 56' Substitution 1 | A. Beck | assist/sub out: L. Kerber Ahmed Al-Kassar 1. FC Heidenheim

63' 63' Substitution 3 | M. Saliakas | assist/sub out: Lars Ritzka FC St. Pauli

64' 64' Substitution 4 | Andreas Hountondji | assist/sub out: Abdoulie Ceesay FC St. Pauli

76' 76' Yellow Card | Martijn Kaars FC St. Pauli

82' 82' Normal Goal | E. Dinkçi | assist/sub out: D. Ramaj 1. FC Heidenheim

Metric 1. FC Heidenheim FC St. Pauli SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.61 1.06 final

Zablokirovannye udary 4 3 final

Shots off target 3 6 final

Shots on target 5 2 final

Udary vsego 12 11 final

Fouls soversheno 7 6 final

Zheltye kartochki 0 1 final

Offsides 1 3 final

1. FC Heidenheim #2 M. Busch, #3 J. Schöppner, #6 P. Mainka, #8 E. Dinkçi, #11 B. Zivzivadze, #18 M. Pieringer, #19 J. Föhrenbach, #21 A. Beck, #26 Hennes Behrens, #30 N. Dorsch, #41 D. Ramaj

FC St. Pauli #2 M. Saliakas, #3 K. Mets, #5 H. Wahl, #7 J. Irvine, #10 D. Sinani, #11 A. Pyrka, #15 T. Ando, #16 J. Fujita, #20 M. Rasmussen, #22 N. Vasilj, #27 A. Hountondji

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Beck 1. FC Heidenheim Dribling popytki 6

A. Beck 1. FC Heidenheim Dribling uspeshno 2

A. Beck 1. FC Heidenheim Edinoborstva vyigrano 11

A. Beck 1. FC Heidenheim Fouls soversheno 1

A. Beck 1. FC Heidenheim Fouls na igroke 1

A. Beck 1. FC Heidenheim Seyvy 0

A. Beck 1. FC Heidenheim football.player.minutes_played 56

A. Beck 1. FC Heidenheim Tochnost pasov % 1

A. Beck 1. FC Heidenheim Klyuchevye pasy 26

A. Beck 1. FC Heidenheim Reyting (staryy) 7.5

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

1. FC Heidenheim 40.1% 39.8% market and model agree

Draw 28.3% 26.7% draw risk

FC St. Pauli 31.6% 33.5%

xG - 1.33 : 1.20

Total 2.5 Over 50.7% - Under 49.3%

Model check - - Difference 0.02

Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.02

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 39.8% / 26.7% / 33.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,358 / 1,406 1. FC Heidenheim / FC St. Pauli

RD 78 / 76 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.94 market consensus · no value · model 33.5%

X 3.32 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 2.37 market consensus · no value · model 39.8%

Double chance

X2 1.56 market consensus · no value · model 60.2%

12 1.31 market consensus · no value · model 73.3%

1X 1.39 market consensus · no value · model 66.5%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.59 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.24 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 2.85 market consensus · line only

2 +1 5.33 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.93 market consensus · no value · model 50.7%

Under 2.5 1.88 market consensus · no value · model 49.3%

Both teams to score

No 2.07 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.70 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	2.32 43.1%	2.47 40.5%	2.38 42.0%	2.30 43.5%	2.40 41.7%	2.40 41.7%
X	3.35 29.9%	3.44 29.1%	3.10 32.3%	3.40 29.4%	3.35 29.9%	3.50 28.6%
	2.95 33.9%	3.13 32.0%	2.88 34.7%	2.90 34.5%	3.00 33.3%	2.90 34.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	2.05 48.8%	2.08 48.1%	2.10 47.6%	2.05 48.8%	2.05 48.8%	2.05 48.8%	2.05 48.8%	2.06 48.5%	2.06 48.5%
yes	1.73 57.8%	1.68 59.5%	1.70 58.8%	1.70 58.8%	1.72 58.1%	1.73 57.8%	1.67 59.9%	1.68 59.5%	1.70 58.8%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.57 63.7%	1.61 62.1%	1.53 65.4%	1.57 63.7%	1.60 62.5%	1.53 65.4%
home_away	1.25 80.0%	1.36 73.5%	1.33 75.2%	1.30 76.9%	1.31 76.3%	1.25 80.0%
home_draw	1.38 72.5%	1.42 70.4%	1.40 71.4%	1.40 71.4%	1.42 70.4%	1.36 73.5%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.05 95.2%	1.02 98.0%
Over 0.75	—	1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0	—	1.02 98.0%
Over 1.25	—	1.14 87.7%
Over 1.5	1.30 76.9%	1.26 79.4%
Over 1.75	—	1.32 75.8%
Over 2.0	—	1.43 69.9%
Over 2.25	—	1.66 60.2%
Over 2.5	1.93 51.8%	—
Over 3.5	3.40 29.4%	—
Over 4.5	6.50 15.4%	—
Under 0.5	9.00 11.1%	—
Under 1.5	3.40 29.4%	—
Under 2.5	1.85 54.1%	—
Under 3.5	1.30 76.9%	—
Under 4.5	1.10 90.9%	—

Match center

1. FC Heidenheim

Founded 1946

FC St. Pauli

Founded 1910

Match center

1. FC Heidenheim

L W D D L

19.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

1. FC Heidenheim 1:2 Frayburg

11.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

1. FC Heidenheim 3:1 Union Berlin

04.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

1. FC Heidenheim 2:2 Borussia Mönchengladbach

21.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

1. FC Heidenheim 3:3 Bayer Leverkusen

14.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

1. FC Heidenheim 0:1 Eintracht Frankfurt

1 Wins

2 Draws

2 Losses

1.8 Scored

1.8 Conceded

5 Points

FC St. Pauli

D L D L L

17.04 18:30 UTC Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli 1:1 1. FC Köln

11.04 16:30 UTC Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli 0:5 Bavariya

05.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli 1:1 Union Berlin

22.03 16:30 UTC Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli 1:2 Frayburg

13.03 19:30 UTC Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli 0:2 Borussia Mönchengladbach

0 Wins

2 Draws

3 Losses

0.6 Scored

2.2 Conceded

2 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head history1. FC Heidenheim - FC St. Pauli

1. FC Heidenheim

1 matches total

FC St. Pauli

1. FC Heidenheim: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

FC St. Pauli: 1 (100%)

Biggest win FC St. Pauli 1:2 (13.12 14:30 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 3 goals (1:2, 13.12 14:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 2

2 Goals conceded 1

Match history

13.12 14:30 UTC

Bundesliga

1. FC Heidenheim

1:2

FC St. Pauli

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.