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Bundesliga Germany

11.04.2026 13:30 UTC Match prediction

11.04.2026 13:30 UTC

Finished

Bundesliga

1. FC Heidenheim - Union Berlin

Germany Football

Stadium Voyt-Arena

1. FC Heidenheim

3 : 1

Finished

Union Berlin

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Union Berlin — 43%

1 · 1. FC Heidenheim30.4%

X · draw27.1%

2 · Union Berlin42.5%

Model estimate: win 1. FC Heidenheim 30.4%, draw 27.1%, win Union Berlin 42.5%. Model favourite — Union Berlin.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction 1. FC Heidenheim - Union Berlin April 11, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Union Berlin.

Strongest: Union Berlin - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.87 / X 3.44 / 2 2.42
1X2 market: 1. FC Heidenheim 33.1% / X 27.6% / Union Berlin 39.3%
Glicko: 1. FC Heidenheim 30.4% / X 27.1% / Union Berlin 42.5%
Total 2.5: over probability 38.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.2%

1 33.1%

X 27.6%

2 39.3%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.8%

Over 2.5 51.3%

Under 2.5 48.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome

Agreement 3/4

Confidence 41.6%

Total Under 2.5

Score 0:1

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center

Start 11.04.2026 13:30 UTC

Stadium Voyt-Arena (Khaydenkhaym-na-Brentse)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Union Berlin 43%

💹 Market Union Berlin 3925%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

1. FC Heidenheim - Union Berlin

1. FC Heidenheim: Win 2.80 1. FC Heidenheim: Draw 3.50 Union Berlin Win: 2.40 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.91 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.91 Individualnyy total golov 1. FC Heidenheim bolshe 1.5: 2.50 Individualnyy total golov 1. FC Heidenheim menshe 1.5: 1.50 In…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 3:1

Events 17

Statistics 24

Lineups 38

min Event Player Team

9' 9' Normal Goal | Mathias Honsak | assist/sub out: Julian Niehues 1. FC Heidenheim

31' 31' Yellow Card | Oliver Burke H. Gray Union Berlin

36' 36' Normal Goal | Mathias Honsak | assist/sub out: Patrick Mainka 1. FC Heidenheim

62' 62' Substitution 1 | Derrick Köhn | assist/sub out: Tom Rothe Union Berlin

62' 62' Substitution 2 | Oliver Burke | assist/sub out: Tim Skarke H. Gray Union Berlin

70' 70' Substitution 3 | András Schäfer | assist/sub out: Ilyas Ansah Union Berlin

70' 70' Substitution 4 | Diogo Leite | assist/sub out: Livan Burcu S. Colombatto Union Berlin

70' 70' Substitution 1 | Stefan Schimmer | assist/sub out: Budu Zivzivadze 1. FC Heidenheim

Metric 1. FC Heidenheim Union Berlin SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.85 0.99 final

Zablokirovannye udary 0 2 final

Shots off target 4 5 final

Shots on target 3 3 final

Udary vsego 7 10 final

Fouls soversheno 7 13 final

Zheltye kartochki 0 2 final

Offsides 2 1 final

1. FC Heidenheim #2 M. Busch, #3 J. Schöppner, #6 P. Mainka, #8 E. Dinkçi, #9 S. Schimmer, #16 J. Niehues, #17 M. Honsak, #18 M. Pieringer, #19 J. Föhrenbach, #26 Hennes Behrens, #41 D. Ramaj

Union Berlin #1 F. Rønnow, #4 Diogo Leite, #5 D. Doekhi, #7 O. Burke, #8 Rani Khedira, #13 A. Schäfer, #14 L. Querfeld, #19 J. Haberer, #23 A. Ilić, #33 A. Král, #39 D. Köhn

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Beck 1. FC Heidenheim Dribling popytki 2

A. Beck 1. FC Heidenheim Edinoborstva vyigrano 2

A. Beck 1. FC Heidenheim Seyvy 0

A. Beck 1. FC Heidenheim football.player.minutes_played 6

A. Beck 1. FC Heidenheim Klyuchevye pasy 1

A. Beck 1. FC Heidenheim Bloki 2

A. Beck 1. FC Heidenheim Otbory vsego 1

A. Ibrahimović 1. FC Heidenheim Edinoborstva vsego 1

A. Ibrahimović 1. FC Heidenheim Seyvy 0

A. Ibrahimović 1. FC Heidenheim football.player.minutes_played 17

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

1. FC Heidenheim 32.6% 30.4%

Draw 27.7% 27.1% draw risk

Union Berlin 39.7% 42.5% market and model agree

xG - 1.10 : 1.35

Total 2.5 Over 38.3% - Under 61.7%

Model check - - Difference 0.03

Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 30.4% / 27.1% / 42.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,342 / 1,450 1. FC Heidenheim / Union Berlin

RD 80 / 77 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.42 market consensus · no value · model 42.5%

X 3.44 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 2.87 market consensus · no value · model 30.4%

Double chance

X2 1.40 market consensus · no value · model 69.6%

12 1.29 market consensus · no value · model 72.9%

1X 1.56 market consensus · no value · model 57.5%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.43 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.16 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 2.36 market consensus · line only

2 +1 3.85 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.86 market consensus · no value · model 38.3%

Under 2.5 1.96 market consensus · value +21.0% · model 61.7%

Both teams to score

No 2.13 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.66 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	3.00 33.3%	2.95 33.9%	2.96 33.8%	2.80 35.7%	2.85 35.1%	2.80 35.7%
X	3.40 29.4%	3.40 29.4%	3.58 27.9%	3.50 28.6%	3.45 29.0%	3.40 29.4%
	2.26 44.3%	2.40 41.7%	2.52 39.7%	2.45 40.8%	2.47 40.5%	2.40 41.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	2.15 46.5%	2.23 44.8%	2.13 47.0%	2.10 47.6%	2.12 47.2%	2.20 45.5%	2.10 47.6%	2.11 47.4%	2.14 46.7%
yes	1.67 59.9%	1.67 59.9%	1.65 60.6%	1.67 59.9%	1.67 59.9%	1.62 61.7%	1.62 61.7%	1.65 60.6%	1.64 61.0%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor
draw_away	1.36 73.5%	1.46 68.5%	1.40 71.4%	1.45 69.0%	1.36 73.5%	1.40 71.4%
home_away	1.25 80.0%	1.34 74.6%	1.28 78.1%	1.30 76.9%	1.25 80.0%	1.29 77.5%
home_draw	1.60 62.5%	1.59 62.9%	1.53 65.4%	1.57 63.7%	1.53 65.4%	1.50 66.7%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.05 95.2%	—	1.01 99.0%
Over 0.75	—	—	1.00 100.0%
Over 1.0	—	—	1.01 99.0%
Over 1.25	—	—	1.12 89.3%
Over 1.5	1.28 78.1%	—	—
Over 2.5	1.85 54.1%	1.91 52.4%	—
Over 2.75	—	2.01 49.8%	—
Over 3.5	3.10 32.3%	—	—
Over 4.5	6.00 16.7%	—	—
Under 0.5	9.00 11.1%	—	—
Under 1.5	3.55 28.2%	—	—
Under 2.5	1.93 51.8%	1.99 50.3%	—
Under 2.75	—	1.89 52.9%	—
Under 3.5	1.35 74.1%	—	—
Under 4.5	1.12 89.3%	—	—

Match center

1. FC Heidenheim

Founded 1946

Union Berlin

Founded 1966

Match center

1. FC Heidenheim

MK M. Kaufmann Injury

LP L. Paqarada Knee Injury

Union Berlin

RS R. Skov Muscle Injury

MR M. Raab Hand Injury

1. FC Heidenheim Founded: 1946

Union Berlin Founded: 1966

Match center

1. FC Heidenheim

D D L L L

04.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

1. FC Heidenheim 2:2 Borussia Mönchengladbach

21.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

1. FC Heidenheim 3:3 Bayer Leverkusen

14.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

1. FC Heidenheim 0:1 Eintracht Frankfurt

07.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

1. FC Heidenheim 2:4 1899 Hoffenheim

28.02 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

1. FC Heidenheim 0:2 Werder Bremen

0 Wins

2 Draws

3 Losses

1.4 Scored

2.4 Conceded

2 Points

Union Berlin

D L W L L

05.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

Union Berlin 1:1 FC St. Pauli

21.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Union Berlin 0:4 Bavariya

15.03 16:30 UTC Bundesliga

Union Berlin 1:0 Frayburg

08.03 16:30 UTC Bundesliga

Union Berlin 1:4 Werder Bremen

28.02 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Union Berlin 0:1 Borussia Mönchengladbach

1 Wins

1 Draws

3 Losses

0.6 Scored

2.0 Conceded

4 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head history1. FC Heidenheim - Union Berlin

1. FC Heidenheim

2 matches total

Union Berlin

1. FC Heidenheim: 2 (100%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Union Berlin: 0 (0%)

Biggest win 1. FC Heidenheim 3:0 (10.05 13:30 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 3 goals (2:1, 29.11 14:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

5 Goals scored 1

1 Goals conceded 5

Match history

29.11 14:30 UTC

Bundesliga

1. FC Heidenheim

2:1

Union Berlin

10.05 13:30 UTC

Bundesliga

1. FC Heidenheim

3:0

Union Berlin

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.