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Bundesliga
Bundesliga Germany
25.04.2026 13:30 UTC Match prediction Prediction
25.04.2026 13:30 UTC
Finished

Bundesliga

Germany

1. FC Köln - Bayer Leverkusen

Germany Football
Stadium Reyn-Energi-Shtadion
1. FC Köln
1. FC Köln
1 : 2
Finished
Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Bayer Leverkusen — 54%

1 · 1. FC Köln22.6%
X · draw23.9%
2 · Bayer Leverkusen53.5%

Model estimate: win 1. FC Köln 22.6%, draw 23.9%, win Bayer Leverkusen 53.5%. Model favourite — Bayer Leverkusen.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction 1. FC Köln - Bayer Leverkusen April 25, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Bayer Leverkusen.

Strongest: Bayer Leverkusen - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.76 / X 3.90 / 2 1.85
  • 1X2 market: 1. FC Köln 25.0% / X 24.1% / Bayer Leverkusen 50.9%
  • Glicko: 1. FC Köln 22.6% / X 23.9% / Bayer Leverkusen 53.5%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 40.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.3%
1 25.0%
X 24.1%
2 50.9%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.5%
Over 2.5 61.4%
Under 2.5 38.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 52.7%
Total Under 2.5
Score 0:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 25.04.2026 13:30 UTC
Stadium Reyn-Energi-Shtadion (Keln)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Bayer Leverkusen 54%
💹 Market Bayer Leverkusen 5088%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

1. FC Köln - Bayer Leverkusen

1. FC Köln: Win 3.80 1. FC Köln: Draw 3.75 Bayer Leverkusen Win: 1.83 Obschiy total golov bolshe 3.5: 2.30 Obschiy total golov menshe 3.5: 1.62 Individualnyy total golov 1. FC Köln bolshe 1.5: 2.50 Individualnyy total golov 1. FC Köln menshe 1.5: 1.50 Individualnyy total g…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:2
Events 16
Statistics 24
Lineups 40
min Event Player Team
10' 10' Yellow Card | Edmond Tapsoba Bayer Leverkusen
43' 43' Penalty | Patrik Schick O. Sonne Bayer Leverkusen
45' 45' Yellow Card | Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson 1. FC Köln
52' 52' Normal Goal | Patrik Schick | assist/sub out: Nathan Tella O. Sonne Bayer Leverkusen
62' 62' Substitution 1 | L. Maina | assist/sub out: A. Castro-Montes 1. FC Köln
62' 62' Substitution 2 | M. Bülter | assist/sub out: J. Thielmann 1. FC Köln
62' 62' Substitution 1 | I. Maza | assist/sub out: M. Tillman Bayer Leverkusen
72' 72' Substitution 3 | K. Lund | assist/sub out: F. Chávez 1. FC Köln
Metric 1. FC Köln Bayer Leverkusen SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 3.04 1.33 final
Zablokirovannye udary 7 2 final
Shots off target 8 3 final
Shots on target 10 3 final
Udary vsego 25 8 final
Fouls soversheno 11 5 final
Zheltye kartochki 1 2 final
Offsides 1 2 final
1. FC Köln #4 Jarell Quansah, #8 R. Andrich, #12 E. Tapsoba, #14 P. Schick, #20 Álex Grimaldo, #23 N. Tella, #24 Aleix García, #25 Exequiel Palacios, #28 J. Blaswich, #30 Ibrahim Maza, #42 M. Culbreath
Bayer Leverkusen #1 M. Schwabe, #6 E. Martel, #13 S. El Mala, #16 J. Kaminski, #18 Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson, #22 J. Simpson-Pusey, #28 S. Sebulonsen, #30 M. Bulter, #32 K. Lund, #37 L. Maina, #39 C. Ozkacar
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Castro-Montes Bayer Leverkusen Edinoborstva vsego 1
A. Castro-Montes Bayer Leverkusen Edinoborstva vyigrano 1
A. Castro-Montes Bayer Leverkusen Seyvy 0
A. Castro-Montes Bayer Leverkusen football.player.minutes_played 8
A. Castro-Montes Bayer Leverkusen Klyuchevye pasy 5
A. Castro-Montes Bayer Leverkusen Reyting (staryy) 6.5
A. Castro-Montes Bayer Leverkusen Shots on target 1
A. Castro-Montes Bayer Leverkusen Otbory vsego 4
A. Castro-Montes Bayer Leverkusen Yellow cards 1
C. Ozkacar Bayer Leverkusen Dribling popytki 4
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
1. FC Köln 24.5% 22.6%
Draw 23.7% 23.9% draw risk
Bayer Leverkusen 51.8% 53.5% market and model agree
xG - 1.02 : 1.71
Total 2.5 Over 40.4% - Under 59.6%
Model check - - Difference 0.02
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.02

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 22.6% / 23.9% / 53.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,444 / 1,596 1. FC Köln / Bayer Leverkusen
RD 74 / 77 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.85 market consensus · no value · model 53.5%
X 3.90 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 3.76 market consensus · no value · model 22.6%
Double chance
X2 1.25 market consensus · no value · model 77.4%
12 1.23 market consensus · no value · model 76.1%
1X 1.94 market consensus · no value · model 46.5%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.26 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.07 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.84 market consensus · line only
2 +1 2.45 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.53 market consensus · no value · model 40.4%
Under 2.5 2.43 market consensus · value +44.9% · model 59.6%
Both teams to score
No 2.47 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.50 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
3.65 27.4% 4.01 24.9% 3.60 27.8% 3.80 26.3% 3.75 26.7% 4.00 25.0%
X 3.90 25.6% 4.16 24.0% 3.80 26.3% 3.75 26.7% 3.95 25.3% 4.00 25.0%
1.85 54.1% 1.90 52.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.88 53.2% 1.80 55.6%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 2.50 40.0% 2.48 40.3% 2.50 40.0% 2.38 42.0% 2.42 41.3% 2.50 40.0% 2.50 40.0% 2.44 41.0% 2.50 40.0%
yes 1.50 66.7% 1.49 67.1% 1.50 66.7% 1.53 65.4% 1.52 65.8% 1.50 66.7% 1.45 69.0% 1.49 67.1% 1.48 67.6%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.25 80.0% 1.29 77.5% 1.25 80.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.30 76.9% 1.22 82.0%
home_away 1.20 83.3% 1.27 78.7% 1.25 80.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.24 80.7% 1.20 83.3%
home_draw 1.91 52.4% 2.00 50.0% 1.95 51.3% 1.91 52.4% 1.95 51.3% 1.91 52.4%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.0 — 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.5 1.17 85.5% 1.12 89.3%
Over 1.75 — 1.15 87.0%
Over 2.0 — 1.19 84.0%
Over 2.25 — 1.34 74.6%
Over 2.5 1.55 64.5% 1.50 66.7%
Over 2.75 — 1.62 61.7%
Over 3.5 2.35 42.6% —
Over 4.5 4.20 23.8% —
Over 5.5 7.50 13.3% —
Under 1.5 5.00 20.0% —
Under 2.5 2.40 41.7% —
Under 3.5 1.57 63.7% —
Under 4.5 1.22 82.0% —
Under 5.5 1.08 92.6% —
Match center
1. FC Köln
Founded 1948
Bayer Leverkusen
Founded 1904
Match center
1. FC Köln
D W D D D
17.04 18:30 UTC Bundesliga
1. FC Köln 1:1 FC St. PauliFC St. Pauli
12.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
1. FC Köln 3:1 Werder BremenWerder Bremen
05.04 15:30 UTC Bundesliga
1. FC Köln 2:2 Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt
21.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga
1. FC Köln 3:3 Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach
14.03 17:30 UTC Bundesliga
1. FC Köln 1:1 Hamburger SVHamburger SV
1 Wins
4 Draws
0 Losses
2.0 Scored
1.6 Conceded
7 Points
Bayer Leverkusen
L W W D D
18.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen 1:2 FC AugsburgFC Augsburg
11.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen 1:0 Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
04.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen 6:3 VfL WolfsburgVfL Wolfsburg
21.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen 3:3 1. FC Heidenheim1. FC Heidenheim
14.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen 1:1 BavariyaBavariya
2 Wins
2 Draws
1 Losses
2.4 Scored
1.8 Conceded
8 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head history1. FC Köln - Bayer Leverkusen

1. FC Köln
1 matches total
Bayer Leverkusen
1. FC Köln: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Bayer Leverkusen: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Bayer Leverkusen 0:2 (13.12 17:30 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 2 goals (0:2, 13.12 17:30 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 2
2 Goals conceded 0

Match history

13.12 17:30 UTC Bundesliga
1. FC Köln
0:2
Bayer Leverkusen
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.