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Bundesliga Germany

12.04.2026 13:30 UTC Match prediction

12.04.2026 13:30 UTC

Finished

Bundesliga

1. FC Köln - Werder Bremen

Germany Football

Stadium Reyn-Energi-Shtadion

1. FC Köln

3 : 1

Finished

Werder Bremen

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 1. FC Köln — 42%

1 · 1. FC Köln42.1%

X · draw26.3%

2 · Werder Bremen31.6%

Model estimate: win 1. FC Köln 42.1%, draw 26.3%, win Werder Bremen 31.6%. Model favourite — 1. FC Köln.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction 1. FC Köln - Werder Bremen April 12, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like 1. FC Köln.

Strongest: 1. FC Köln - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.32 / X 3.41 / 2 3.06
1X2 market: 1. FC Köln 41.0% / X 27.9% / Werder Bremen 31.1%
Glicko: 1. FC Köln 42.1% / X 26.3% / Werder Bremen 31.6%
Total 2.5: over probability 43.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.1%

1 41.0%

X 27.9%

2 31.1%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.0%

Over 2.5 53.8%

Under 2.5 46.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 4/4

Confidence 42.9%

Total Under 2.5

Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Start 12.04.2026 13:30 UTC

Stadium Reyn-Energi-Shtadion (Keln)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model 1. FC Köln 42%

💹 Market 1. FC Köln 4102%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

1. FC Köln - Werder Bremen

1. FC Köln: Win 2.20 1. FC Köln: Draw 3.50 Werder Bremen Win: 3.20 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.73 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.10 Individualnyy total golov 1. FC Köln bolshe 1.5: 1.91 Individualnyy total golov 1. FC Köln menshe 1.5: 1.80 Individualnyy total golo…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 3:1

Events 20

Statistics 26

Lineups 40

min Event Player Team

7' 7' Penalty | Said El Mala 1. FC Köln

24' 24' Red Card | Marco Friedl Werder Bremen

46' 46' Substitution 2 | Yukinari Sugawara | assist/sub out: Karim Coulibaly Werder Bremen

46' 46' Substitution 1 | Kristoffer Lund | assist/sub out: Alessio Castro-Montes 1. FC Köln

46' 46' Substitution 1 | Yukinari Sugawara | assist/sub out: Karim Coulibaly Werder Bremen

47' 47' Goal Disallowed - offside | Alessio Castro-Montes D. Pushkarev 1. FC Köln

65' 65' Normal Goal | Ragnar Ache 1. FC Köln

67' 67' Substitution 3 | Jan Thielmann | assist/sub out: Marius Bülter 1. FC Köln

Metric 1. FC Köln Werder Bremen SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 3.33 0.99 final

Zablokirovannye udary 11 1 final

Shots off target 6 3 final

Shots on target 8 2 final

Udary vsego 25 6 final

Fouls soversheno 16 7 final

Red cards 0 1 final

Zheltye kartochki 3 2 final

1. FC Köln #2 O. Deman, #3 Yukinari Sugawara, #5 A. Pieper, #10 L. Bittencourt, #11 J. Njinmah, #14 S. Lynen, #17 M. Grüll, #20 Romano Schmid, #27 F. Agu, #30 M. Backhaus, #32 Marco Friedl

Werder Bremen #1 M. Schwabe, #6 E. Martel, #9 R. Ache, #13 S. El Mala, #16 J. Kaminski, #18 Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson, #22 J. Simpson-Pusey, #28 S. Sebulonsen, #29 J. Thielmann, #32 K. Lund, #39 C. Ozkacar

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Castro-Montes Werder Bremen Dribling popytki 1

A. Castro-Montes Werder Bremen Edinoborstva vyigrano 4

A. Castro-Montes Werder Bremen Fouls soversheno 1

A. Castro-Montes Werder Bremen Conceded golov 1

A. Castro-Montes Werder Bremen Seyvy 0

A. Castro-Montes Werder Bremen football.player.minutes_played 52

A. Castro-Montes Werder Bremen Tochnost pasov % 2

A. Castro-Montes Werder Bremen Klyuchevye pasy 27

A. Castro-Montes Werder Bremen Reyting (staryy) 6.7

A. Castro-Montes Werder Bremen Otbory vsego 23

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

1. FC Köln 43.3% 42.1% market and model agree

Draw 27.1% 26.3% draw risk

Werder Bremen 29.6% 31.6%

xG - 1.41 : 1.18

Total 2.5 Over 43.2% - Under 56.9%

Model check - - Difference 0.02

Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.02

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 42.1% / 26.3% / 31.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,432 / 1,430 1. FC Köln / Werder Bremen

RD 76 / 76 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 3.06 market consensus · no value · model 31.6%

X 3.41 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 2.32 market consensus · no value · model 42.1%

Double chance

X2 1.62 market consensus · no value · model 57.9%

12 1.29 market consensus · no value · model 73.7%

1X 1.36 market consensus · no value · model 68.4%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.64 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.28 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 3.00 market consensus · line only

2 +1 5.20 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.77 market consensus · no value · model 43.2%

Under 2.5 2.06 market consensus · value +17.1% · model 56.9%

Both teams to score

No 2.28 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.58 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	2.26 44.3%	2.31 43.3%	2.40 41.7%	2.35 42.6%	2.35 42.6%	2.30 43.5%
X	3.35 29.9%	3.50 28.6%	3.50 28.6%	3.40 29.4%	3.35 29.9%	3.40 29.4%
	3.00 33.3%	3.10 32.3%	3.19 31.4%	3.00 33.3%	3.05 32.8%	3.00 33.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	2.30 43.5%	2.36 42.4%	2.22 45.1%	2.25 44.4%	2.30 43.5%	2.30 43.5%	2.25 44.4%	2.19 45.7%	2.33 42.9%
yes	1.57 63.7%	1.60 62.5%	1.60 62.5%	1.57 63.7%	1.57 63.7%	1.57 63.7%	1.57 63.7%	1.60 62.5%	1.55 64.5%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor
draw_away	1.60 62.5%	1.64 61.0%	1.67 59.9%	1.62 61.7%	1.57 63.7%	1.55 64.5%
home_away	1.25 80.0%	1.35 74.1%	1.28 78.1%	1.31 76.3%	1.25 80.0%	1.30 76.9%
home_draw	1.36 73.5%	1.40 71.4%	1.36 73.5%	1.40 71.4%	1.36 73.5%	1.33 75.2%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.05 95.2%	—	1.00 100.0%
Over 0.75	—	—	1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0	—	—	1.02 98.0%
Over 1.25	—	—	1.12 89.3%
Over 1.5	1.25 80.0%	—	1.22 82.0%
Over 1.75	—	—	1.28 78.1%
Over 2.5	1.75 57.1%	—	—
Over 2.75	—	2.01 49.8%	—
Over 3.5	2.80 35.7%	—	—
Over 4.5	5.25 19.1%	—	—
Under 0.5	9.50 10.5%	—	—
Under 1.5	3.85 26.0%	—	—
Under 2.5	2.05 48.8%	—	—
Under 2.75	—	1.89 52.9%	—
Under 3.5	1.42 70.4%	—	—
Under 4.5	1.15 87.0%	—	—

Match center

1. FC Köln

Founded 1948

Werder Bremen

Founded 1899

Match center

1. FC Köln

TH T. Hübers Knee Injury

LK L. Kilian Knee Injury

Werder Bremen

MW M. Weiser Knee Injury

JS J. Stage Muscle Injury

1. FC Köln Founded: 1948

Werder Bremen Founded: 1899

Match center

1. FC Köln

D D D L L

05.04 15:30 UTC Bundesliga

1. FC Köln 2:2 Eintracht Frankfurt

21.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

1. FC Köln 3:3 Borussia Mönchengladbach

14.03 17:30 UTC Bundesliga

1. FC Köln 1:1 Hamburger SV

07.03 17:30 UTC Bundesliga

1. FC Köln 1:2 Borussia Dortmund

27.02 19:30 UTC Bundesliga

1. FC Köln 0:2 FC Augsburg

0 Wins

3 Draws

2 Losses

1.4 Scored

2.0 Conceded

3 Points

Werder Bremen

L W L W W

04.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

Werder Bremen 1:2 RB Leipzig

21.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Werder Bremen 1:0 VfL Wolfsburg

15.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Werder Bremen 0:2 Maynts

08.03 16:30 UTC Bundesliga

Werder Bremen 4:1 Union Berlin

28.02 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Werder Bremen 2:0 1. FC Heidenheim

3 Wins

0 Draws

2 Losses

1.6 Scored

1.0 Conceded

9 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head history1. FC Köln - Werder Bremen

1. FC Köln

1 matches total

Werder Bremen

1. FC Köln: 0 (0%)

Draws:1 (100%)

Werder Bremen: 0 (0%)

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 2 goals (1:1, 29.11 14:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (29.11 14:30 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 1

1 Goals conceded 1

Match history

29.11 14:30 UTC

Bundesliga

1. FC Köln

1:1

Werder Bremen

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.