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Bundesliga Germany

18.04.2026 13:30 UTC Match prediction Prediction

18.04.2026 13:30 UTC

Finished

Bundesliga

1899 Hoffenheim - Borussia Dortmund

Germany Football

Stadium PreZero Arena

Capacity 30 164

1899 Hoffenheim

2 : 1

Finished

Borussia Dortmund

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Borussia Dortmund — 41%

1 · 1899 Hoffenheim33.7%

X · draw25.1%

2 · Borussia Dortmund41.2%

Model estimate: win 1899 Hoffenheim 33.7%, draw 25.1%, win Borussia Dortmund 41.2%. Model favourite — Borussia Dortmund.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction 1899 Hoffenheim - Borussia Dortmund April 18, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like 1899 Hoffenheim.

Line favourite market consensus: 1899 Hoffenheim. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.45 / X 3.84 / 2 2.60
1X2 market: 1899 Hoffenheim 38.7% / X 24.7% / Borussia Dortmund 36.6%
Glicko: 1899 Hoffenheim 33.7% / X 25.1% / Borussia Dortmund 41.2%
Total 2.5: over probability 33.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.3%

1 38.8%

X 24.7%

2 36.5%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.5%

Over 2.5 63.9%

Under 2.5 36.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome

Agreement 3/4

Confidence 40.1%

Total Under 2.5

Score 1:1

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center

Start 18.04.2026 13:30 UTC

Stadium PreZero Arena (Sinsheim)

Capacity 30,164

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Borussia Dortmund 41%

💹 Market 1899 Hoffenheim 3874%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

1899 Hoffenheim - Borussia Dortmund

1899 Hoffenheim: Win 2.40 1899 Hoffenheim: Draw 4.00 Borussia Dortmund Win: 2.60 Obschiy total golov bolshe 3.5: 2.20 Obschiy total golov menshe 3.5: 1.67 Individualnyy total golov 1899 Hoffenheim bolshe 1.5: 1.83 Individualnyy total golov 1899 Hoffenheim menshe 1.5: 1.83 I…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 2:1

Events 17

Statistics 24

Lineups 40

min Event Player Team

31' 31' Yellow Card | Wouter Burger 1899 Hoffenheim

41' 41' Penalty | Andrej Kramarić Ferdi Kadıoğlu 1899 Hoffenheim

42' 42' Substitution 1 | Niklas Sule | assist/sub out: Ramy Bensebaini Alex Muralha Borussia Dortmund

60' 60' Substitution 1 | Wouter Burger | assist/sub out: Grischa Promel 1899 Hoffenheim

60' 60' Substitution 2 | Bazoumana Touré | assist/sub out: Alexander Prass 1899 Hoffenheim

60' 60' Substitution 2 | Fábio Silva | assist/sub out: Serhou Guirassy Borussia Dortmund

71' 71' Substitution 3 | Daniel Svensson | assist/sub out: Julian Brandt Borussia Dortmund

72' 72' Substitution 4 | Daniel Svensson | assist/sub out: Julian Brandt Borussia Dortmund

Metric 1899 Hoffenheim Borussia Dortmund SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.25 0.7 final

Zablokirovannye udary 5 2 final

Shots off target 4 3 final

Shots on target 4 3 final

Udary vsego 13 8 final

Fouls soversheno 14 11 final

Zheltye kartochki 2 3 final

Offsides 6 3 final

1899 Hoffenheim #1 G. Kobel, #3 Waldemar Anton, #4 Nico Schlotterbeck, #7 J. Bellingham, #14 Maximilian Beier, #17 Carney Chukwuemeka, #20 Marcel Sabitzer, #21 Fábio Silva, #24 Daniel Svensson, #25 N. Süle, #26 Julian Ryerson

Borussia Dortmund #1 O. Baumann, #5 O. Kabak, #7 L. Avdullahu, #11 F. Asllani, #13 Bernardo, #18 W. Burger, #19 T. Lemperle, #21 A. Hajdari, #27 Andrej Kramarić, #29 B. Touré, #34 V. Coufal

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Meyer 1899 Hoffenheim Seyvy 0

Carney Chukwuemeka 1899 Hoffenheim Dribling popytki 5

Carney Chukwuemeka 1899 Hoffenheim Dribling uspeshno 1

Carney Chukwuemeka 1899 Hoffenheim Edinoborstva vyigrano 12

Carney Chukwuemeka 1899 Hoffenheim Fouls soversheno 2

Carney Chukwuemeka 1899 Hoffenheim Seyvy 0

Carney Chukwuemeka 1899 Hoffenheim football.player.minutes_played 101

Carney Chukwuemeka 1899 Hoffenheim Klyuchevye pasy 34

Carney Chukwuemeka 1899 Hoffenheim Reyting (staryy) 6.2

Carney Chukwuemeka 1899 Hoffenheim Bloki 2

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

1899 Hoffenheim 37.5% 33.7%

Draw 24.4% 25.1% draw risk

Borussia Dortmund 38.1% 41.2% market and model agree

xG - 1.33 : 1.50

Total 2.5 Over 33.3% - Under 66.7%

Model check - - Difference 0.04

Market vs Glicko gap: 0.04

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 33.7% / 25.1% / 41.2% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,574 / 1,687 1899 Hoffenheim / Borussia Dortmund

RD 77 / 79 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.60 market consensus · no value · model 41.2%

X 3.84 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 2.45 market consensus · no value · model 33.7%

Double chance

X2 1.55 market consensus · weak value +2.7% · model 66.3%

12 1.25 market consensus · no value · model 74.9%

1X 1.48 market consensus · no value · model 58.8%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.56 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.27 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 2.54 market consensus · line only

2 +1 4.11 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.47 market consensus · no value · model 33.3%

Under 2.5 2.60 market consensus · weak value +73.3% · model 66.7%

Both teams to score

No 2.73 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.42 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	2.50 40.0%	2.67 37.5%	2.51 39.8%	2.45 40.8%	2.30 43.5%	2.42 41.3%
X	3.85 26.0%	4.10 24.4%	3.98 25.1%	3.60 27.8%	3.90 25.6%	3.90 25.6%
	2.44 41.0%	2.37 42.2%	2.73 36.6%	2.50 40.0%	2.70 37.0%	2.62 38.2%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet
no	2.75 36.4%	2.71 36.9%	2.73 36.6%	2.70 37.0%	2.62 38.2%	2.67 37.5%	2.80 35.7%	2.75 36.4%	2.69 37.2%
yes	1.42 70.4%	1.47 68.0%	1.41 70.9%	1.44 69.4%	1.44 69.4%	1.44 69.4%	1.40 71.4%	1.40 71.4%	1.41 70.9%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.50 66.7%	1.59 62.9%	1.53 65.4%	1.53 65.4%	1.60 62.5%	1.57 63.7%
home_away	1.20 83.3%	1.29 77.5%	1.25 80.0%	1.25 80.0%	1.25 80.0%	1.22 82.0%
home_draw	1.53 65.4%	1.52 65.8%	1.50 66.7%	1.44 69.4%	1.52 65.8%	1.40 71.4%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	—	—	1.02 98.0%
Over 1.0	—	—	1.03 97.1%
Over 1.5	1.14 87.7%	—	1.11 90.1%
Over 1.75	—	—	1.14 87.7%
Over 2.0	—	—	1.17 85.5%
Over 2.25	—	—	1.32 75.8%
Over 2.5	1.48 67.6%	—	—
Over 3.25	—	2.07 48.3%	—
Over 3.5	2.20 45.5%	—	—
Over 4.5	3.70 27.0%	—	—
Over 5.5	6.50 15.4%	—	—
Under 1.5	5.50 18.2%	—	—
Under 2.5	2.60 38.5%	—	—
Under 3.25	—	1.83 54.6%	—
Under 3.5	1.65 60.6%	—	—
Under 4.5	1.25 80.0%	—	—
Under 5.5	1.10 90.9%	—	—

Match center

1899 Hoffenheim

Founded 1899

Borussia Dortmund

Founded 1909

Match center

1899 Hoffenheim

D L L D W

10.04 18:30 UTC Bundesliga

1899 Hoffenheim 2:2 FC Augsburg

04.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

1899 Hoffenheim 1:2 Maynts

20.03 19:30 UTC Bundesliga

1899 Hoffenheim 0:5 RB Leipzig

14.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

1899 Hoffenheim 1:1 VfL Wolfsburg

07.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

1899 Hoffenheim 4:2 1. FC Heidenheim

1 Wins

2 Draws

2 Losses

1.6 Scored

2.4 Conceded

5 Points

Borussia Dortmund

L W W W W

11.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund 0:1 Bayer Leverkusen

04.04 16:30 UTC Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund 2:0 VfB Stuttgart

21.03 17:30 UTC Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund 3:2 Hamburger SV

14.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund 2:0 FC Augsburg

07.03 17:30 UTC Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund 2:1 1. FC Köln

4 Wins

0 Draws

1 Losses

1.8 Scored

0.8 Conceded

12 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head history1899 Hoffenheim - Borussia Dortmund

1899 Hoffenheim

2 matches total

Borussia Dortmund

1899 Hoffenheim: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Borussia Dortmund: 2 (100%)

Biggest win Borussia Dortmund 0:2 (07.12 16:30 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 5 goals (2:3, 26.04 13:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

2 Goals scored 5

5 Goals conceded 2

Match history

07.12 16:30 UTC

Bundesliga

1899 Hoffenheim

0:2

Borussia Dortmund

26.04 13:30 UTC

Bundesliga

1899 Hoffenheim

2:3

Borussia Dortmund

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.