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Bundesliga
Bundesliga Germany
11.05.2025 13:30 UTC Match prediction
11.05.2025 13:30 UTC
Finished

Bundesliga

Germany

Bayer Leverkusen - Borussia Dortmund

Germany Football
Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen
2 : 4
Finished
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Bayer Leverkusen - Borussia Dortmund May 11, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Borussia Dortmund.

Line favourite market consensus: Borussia Dortmund. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.95 / X 3.92 / 2 2.31
  • 1X2 market: Bayer Leverkusen 33.0% / X 24.8% / Borussia Dortmund 42.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 2.7%
1 33.0%
X 24.8%
2 42.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 11.05.2025 13:30 UTC
Match center

Bayer Leverkusen - Borussia Dortmund

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.31 market consensus · line only
X 3.92 market consensus · line only
1 2.95 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.45 market consensus · line only
12 1.29 market consensus · line only
1X 1.68 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.95 33.9%
X 3.92 25.5%
2.31 43.3%

Double chance

Outcome SStats Consensus
draw_away 1.45 69.0%
home_away 1.29 77.5%
home_draw 1.68 59.5%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome SStats Consensus
Over 3.5 2.27 44.1%
Under 3.5 1.69 59.2%

Home/Away

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.20 45.5%
1.72 58.1%
Match center
Bayer Leverkusen
D W D D W
04.05 15:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen 2:2 FrayburgFrayburg
26.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen 2:0 FC AugsburgFC Augsburg
20.04 17:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen 1:1 FC St. PauliFC St. Pauli
12.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen 0:0 Union BerlinUnion Berlin
05.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen 1:0 1. FC Heidenheim1. FC Heidenheim
2 Wins
3 Draws
0 Losses
1.2 Scored
0.6 Conceded
9 Points
Borussia Dortmund
W W W D W
03.05 16:30 UTC Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund 4:0 VfL WolfsburgVfL Wolfsburg
26.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund 3:2 1899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim
20.04 15:30 UTC Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund 3:2 Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach
12.04 16:30 UTC Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund 2:2 BavariyaBavariya
05.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund 4:1 FrayburgFrayburg
4 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
3.2 Scored
1.4 Conceded
13 Points