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Bundesliga Germany

28.02.2026 14:30 UTC Match prediction

28.02.2026 14:30 UTC

Finished

Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen - FSV Mainz 05

Germany Football

Bayer Leverkusen

1 : 1

Finished

FSV Mainz 05

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Bayer Leverkusen - FSV Mainz 05 February 28, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Bayer Leverkusen.

Line favourite market consensus: Bayer Leverkusen. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.71 / X 4.01 / 2 4.63
1X2 market: Bayer Leverkusen 55.7% / X 23.8% / FSV Mainz 05 20.6%
Total 2.5: over probability 57.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.0%

1 55.7%

X 23.7%

2 20.6%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.9%

Over 2.5 57.8%

Under 2.5 42.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 28.02.2026 14:30 UTC

Match center

Bayer Leverkusen - FSV Mainz 05

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 4.64 market consensus · line only

X 4.02 market consensus · line only

1 1.71 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 2.15 market consensus · line only

12 1.24 market consensus · line only

1X 1.20 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 2.17 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.69 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 4.13 market consensus · line only

2 +1 9.50 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.65 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 2.26 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 2.19 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.64 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	1.72 58.1%
X	4.16 24.0%
	4.74 21.1%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	1.70 58.8%	1.71 58.5%	1.75 57.1%	1.67 59.9%	1.70 58.8%	1.75 57.1%
X	3.90 25.6%	4.15 24.1%	4.16 24.0%	3.80 26.3%	4.00 25.0%	4.15 24.1%
	4.45 22.5%	4.60 21.7%	4.92 20.3%	4.50 22.2%	4.50 22.2%	4.75 21.1%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	Marathonbet	Pinnacle
no	2.20 45.5%	2.23 44.8%	2.17 46.1%	2.15 46.5%	2.10 47.6%	2.15 46.5%	2.25 44.4%	2.14 46.7%	2.26 44.3%
yes	1.62 61.7%	1.66 60.2%	1.63 61.4%	1.65 60.6%	1.67 59.9%	1.65 60.6%	1.60 62.5%	1.63 61.4%	1.69 59.2%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	2.10 47.6%	2.20 45.5%	2.10 47.6%	2.10 47.6%	2.15 46.5%	2.10 47.6%
home_away	1.20 83.3%	1.27 78.7%	1.25 80.0%	1.22 82.0%	1.24 80.7%	1.20 83.3%
home_draw	1.20 83.3%	1.22 82.0%	1.20 83.3%	1.18 84.8%	1.22 82.0%	1.14 87.7%

Match center

Bayer Leverkusen

L W D W W

21.02 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen 0:1 Union Berlin

14.02 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen 4:0 FC St. Pauli

07.02 17:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen 1:1 Borussia Mönchengladbach

31.01 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen 3:1 Eintracht Frankfurt

24.01 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen 1:0 Werder Bremen

3 Wins

1 Draws

1 Losses

1.8 Scored

0.6 Conceded

10 Points

FSV Mainz 05

D L W W W

20.02 19:30 UTC Bundesliga

FSV Mainz 05 1:1 Hamburger SV

13.02 19:30 UTC Bundesliga

FSV Mainz 05 0:4 Borussia Dortmund

07.02 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

FSV Mainz 05 2:0 FC Augsburg

31.01 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

FSV Mainz 05 2:1 RB Leipzig

24.01 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

FSV Mainz 05 3:1 VfL Wolfsburg

3 Wins

1 Draws

1 Losses

1.6 Scored

1.4 Conceded

10 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyBayer Leverkusen - FSV Mainz 05

Bayer Leverkusen

2 matches total

FSV Mainz 05

Bayer Leverkusen: 1 (50%)

Draws:1 (50%)

FSV Mainz 05: 0 (0%)

Biggest win Bayer Leverkusen 4:3 (18.10 13:30 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 7 goals (4:3, 18.10 13:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 2:2 (17.05 13:30 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

6 Goals scored 5

5 Goals conceded 6

Match history

18.10 13:30 UTC

Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen

4:3

Maynts

17.05 13:30 UTC

Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen

2:2

Maynts