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Bundesliga
Bundesliga Germany
16.05.2026 13:30 UTC Match prediction
16.05.2026 13:30 UTC
Finished

Bundesliga

Germany

Bayer Leverkusen - Hamburger SV

Germany Football
Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen
1 : 1
Finished
Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Bayer Leverkusen - Hamburger SV May 16, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Bayer Leverkusen.

Line favourite market consensus: Bayer Leverkusen. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.29 / X 6.17 / 2 8.22
  • 1X2 market: Bayer Leverkusen 73.1% / X 15.4% / Hamburger SV 11.6%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 74.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.9%
1 73.2%
X 15.3%
2 11.5%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.1%
Over 2.5 74.2%
Under 2.5 25.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: Bayer Leverkusen

Main outcome Bayer Leverkusen
Agreement 1/1
Confidence 74.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 16.05.2026 13:30 UTC
Match center

Bayer Leverkusen - Hamburger SV

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:1
Events 14
Statistics 22
Lineups 40
min Event Player Team
24' 24' Yellow Card | J. Torunarigha J. Torunarigha Hamburger SV
61' 61' Normal Goal | F. Vieira Fábio Vieira Hamburger SV
62' 62' Substitution 1 | M. Tillman | assist/sub out: J. Hofmann M. Tillman Bayer Leverkusen
62' 62' Substitution 2 | M. Culbreath | assist/sub out: Arthur M. Culbreath Bayer Leverkusen
62' 62' Substitution 3 | R. Andrich | assist/sub out: E. Ben Seghir R. Andrich Bayer Leverkusen
63' 63' Substitution 1 | R. Philippe | assist/sub out: M. Muheim R. Philippe Hamburger SV
66' 66' Yellow Card | Arthur Arthur Bayer Leverkusen
77' 77' Substitution 4 | W. Omari | assist/sub out: S. Nandja W. Omari Hamburger SV
Metric Bayer Leverkusen Hamburger SV SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 3.27 1.79 final
Zablokirovannye udary 5 5 final
Shots off target 12 8 final
Shots on target 9 6 final
Udary vsego 26 19 final
Fouls soversheno 8 11 final
Zheltye kartochki 1 2 final
Offsides 3 0 final
Bayer Leverkusen #1 M. Flekken, #12 E. Tapsoba, #14 P. Schick, #20 Álex Grimaldo, #30 Ibrahim Maza, #8 R. Andrich, #10 M. Tillman, #25 Exequiel Palacios, #4 Jarell Quansah, #24 Aleix García, #42 M. Culbreath
Hamburger SV #12 S. Tangvik, #14 R. Philippe, #23 A. Grønbæk, #25 J. Torunarigha, #49 Otto Emerson Stange, #6 A. Sambi Lokonga, #20 Fábio Vieira, #44 L. Vuskovic, #17 W. Omari, #21 N. Remberg, #24 N. Capaldo
Player Team Metric SStats
Aleix García Bayer Leverkusen football.player.assists 1
Aleix García Bayer Leverkusen football.player.minutes_played 84
Álex Grimaldo Bayer Leverkusen football.player.assists 0
Álex Grimaldo Bayer Leverkusen football.player.minutes_played 90
Arthur Bayer Leverkusen football.player.assists 0
Arthur Bayer Leverkusen football.player.minutes_played 28
E. Ben Seghir Bayer Leverkusen football.player.assists 0
E. Ben Seghir Bayer Leverkusen football.player.minutes_played 28
E. Tapsoba Bayer Leverkusen football.player.assists 0
E. Tapsoba Bayer Leverkusen football.player.minutes_played 90
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 8.22 market consensus · line only
X 6.17 market consensus · line only
1 1.29 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 3.55 market consensus · line only
12 1.11 market consensus · line only
1X 1.07 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 3.50 market consensus · line only
2 -1 2.89 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 7.00 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.26 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.27 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 3.65 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.45 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.51 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
1.30 76.9% 1.33 75.2% 1.29 77.5% 1.30 76.9% 1.33 75.2% 1.25 80.0%
X 6.40 15.6% 6.45 15.5% 5.75 17.4% 6.25 16.0% 6.20 16.1% 6.00 16.7%
7.00 14.3% 9.10 11.0% 8.00 12.5% 7.50 13.3% 8.75 11.4% 8.50 11.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 2.40 41.7% 2.48 40.3% 2.50 40.0% 2.38 42.0% 2.45 40.8% 2.50 40.0% 2.55 39.2% 2.44 41.0% 2.32 43.1%
yes 1.53 65.4% 1.49 67.1% 1.50 66.7% 1.53 65.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.50 66.7% 1.45 69.0% 1.49 67.1% 1.56 64.1%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 3.50 28.6% 3.64 27.5% 3.50 28.6% 3.50 28.6% 3.50 28.6% 3.60 27.8%
home_away 1.08 92.6% 1.15 87.0% 1.13 88.5% 1.11 90.1% 1.13 88.5% 1.10 90.9%
home_draw 1.07 93.5% 1.08 92.6% 1.08 92.6% 1.08 92.6% 1.10 90.9% 1.06 94.3%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 — 1.00 100.0%
Over 1.0 — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.5 1.07 93.5% 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.75 — 1.04 96.2%
Over 2.0 — 1.05 95.2%
Over 2.25 — 1.15 87.0%
Over 2.5 1.28 78.1% 1.24 80.7%
Over 2.75 — 1.30 76.9%
Over 3.5 1.70 58.8% —
Over 4.5 2.60 38.5% —
Over 5.5 4.33 23.1% —
Under 1.5 8.00 12.5% —
Under 2.5 3.65 27.4% —
Under 3.5 2.10 47.6% —
Under 4.5 1.48 67.6% —
Under 5.5 1.20 83.3% —
Match center
Bayer Leverkusen
L W W L W
09.05 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen 1:3 VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart
02.05 16:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen 4:1 RB LeipzigRB Leipzig
25.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen 2:1 1. FC Köln1. FC Köln
18.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen 1:2 FC AugsburgFC Augsburg
11.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen 1:0 Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
1.8 Scored
1.4 Conceded
9 Points
Hamburger SV
W W L L L
10.05 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Hamburger SV 3:2 FrayburgFrayburg
02.05 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Hamburger SV 2:1 Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt
25.04 16:30 UTC Bundesliga
Hamburger SV 1:2 1899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim
18.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Hamburger SV 1:3 Werder BremenWerder Bremen
12.04 15:30 UTC Bundesliga
Hamburger SV 0:4 VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart
2 Wins
0 Draws
3 Losses
1.4 Scored
2.4 Conceded
6 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyBayer Leverkusen - Hamburger SV

Bayer Leverkusen
1 matches total
Hamburger SV
Bayer Leverkusen: 1 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Hamburger SV: 0 (0%)
Biggest win Bayer Leverkusen 1:0 (04.03 19:30 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 1 goals (1:0, 04.03 19:30 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 1

Match history

04.03 19:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen
1:0
Hamburger SV