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Bundesliga Germany

02.05.2026 16:30 UTC Match prediction

02.05.2026 16:30 UTC

Finished

Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen - RB Leipzig

Germany Football

Stadium BayArena

Capacity 30 210

Bayer Leverkusen

4 : 1

Finished

RB Leipzig

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Bayer Leverkusen — 40%

1 · Bayer Leverkusen40.3%

X · draw24.4%

2 · RB Leipzig35.3%

Model estimate: win Bayer Leverkusen 40.3%, draw 24.4%, win RB Leipzig 35.3%. Model favourite — Bayer Leverkusen.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Bayer Leverkusen - RB Leipzig May 2, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Bayer Leverkusen.

Strongest: Bayer Leverkusen - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.19 / X 3.94 / 2 2.91
1X2 market: Bayer Leverkusen 43.3% / X 24.1% / RB Leipzig 32.6%
Glicko: Bayer Leverkusen 40.3% / X 24.4% / RB Leipzig 35.3%
Total 2.5: over probability 45.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.4%

1 43.3%

X 24.1%

2 32.6%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.6%

Over 2.5 69.5%

Under 2.5 30.5%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 4/4

Confidence 42.4%

Total Under 2.5

Score 2:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Start 02.05.2026 16:30 UTC

Stadium BayArena (Leverkusen)

Capacity 30,210

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Bayer Leverkusen 40%

💹 Market Bayer Leverkusen 4333%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Bayer Leverkusen - RB Leipzig

Bayer Leverkusen: Win 2.20 Bayer Leverkusen: Draw 3.90 RB Leipzig Win: 2.90 Obschiy total golov bolshe 3.5: 1.91 Obschiy total golov menshe 3.5: 1.91 Individualnyy total golov Bayer Leverkusen bolshe 1.5: 1.62 Individualnyy total golov Bayer Leverkusen menshe 1.5: 2.20 Indi…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 4:1

Events 19

Statistics 24

Lineups 40

min Event Player Team

14' 14' Yellow Card | Max Finkgräfe Max Finkgräfe RB Leipzig

25' 25' Normal Goal | Patrik Schick | assist/sub out: Nathan Tella P. Schick Bayer Leverkusen

45' 45' Normal Goal | Nathan Tella | assist/sub out: Aleix García N. Tella Bayer Leverkusen

46' 46' Substitution 1 | El Chadaille Bitshiabu | assist/sub out: Castello Lukeba E. Bitshiabu RB Leipzig

46' 46' Substitution 2 | A. Nusa | assist/sub out: Brajan Gruda A. Nusa RB Leipzig

65' 65' Substitution 3 | Rômulo | assist/sub out: C. Harder Rômulo RB Leipzig

65' 65' Substitution 4 | N. Seiwald | assist/sub out: A. Ouédraogo N. Seiwald RB Leipzig

72' 72' Yellow Card | X. Schlager X. Schlager RB Leipzig

Metric Bayer Leverkusen RB Leipzig SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 4.42 1.17 final

Zablokirovannye udary 7 4 final

Shots off target 8 5 final

Shots on target 8 5 final

Udary vsego 23 14 final

Fouls soversheno 7 12 final

Zheltye kartochki 1 3 final

Offsides 0 0 final

Bayer Leverkusen #1 M. Flekken, #12 E. Tapsoba, #14 P. Schick, #20 Álex Grimaldo, #23 N. Tella, #8 R. Andrich, #25 Exequiel Palacios, #30 Ibrahim Maza, #4 Jarell Quansah, #24 Aleix García, #42 M. Culbreath

RB Leipzig #7 A. Nusa, #14 C. Baumgartner, #26 M. Vandevoordt, #35 Max Finkgräfe, #5 E. Bitshiabu, #13 N. Seiwald, #40 Rômulo, #4 W. Orbán, #24 X. Schlager, #49 Y. Diomande, #17 R. Baku

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Nusa RB Leipzig Dribling popytki 4

A. Nusa RB Leipzig Dribling uspeshno 2

A. Nusa RB Leipzig Edinoborstva vyigrano 8

A. Nusa RB Leipzig Fouls soversheno 1

A. Nusa RB Leipzig Fouls na igroke 1

A. Nusa RB Leipzig Seyvy 0

A. Nusa RB Leipzig football.player.minutes_played 45

A. Nusa RB Leipzig Tochnost pasov % 1

A. Nusa RB Leipzig Klyuchevye pasy 8

A. Nusa RB Leipzig Pasy vsego 1

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Bayer Leverkusen 44.1% 40.3% market and model agree

Draw 23.9% 24.4% draw risk

RB Leipzig 31.9% 35.3%

xG - 1.54 : 1.43

Total 2.5 Over 45.5% - Under 54.5%

Model check - - Difference 0.04

Market vs Glicko gap: 0.04

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 40.3% / 24.4% / 35.3% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,602 / 1,625 Bayer Leverkusen / RB Leipzig

RD 76 / 75 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.91 market consensus · no value · model 35.3%

X 3.94 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 2.19 market consensus · no value · model 40.3%

Double chance

X2 1.67 market consensus · no value · model 59.7%

12 1.24 market consensus · no value · model 75.6%

1X 1.40 market consensus · no value · model 64.7%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.69 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.37 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 2.82 market consensus · line only

2 +1 4.60 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.35 market consensus · no value · model 45.5%

Under 2.5 3.07 market consensus · weak value +67.2% · model 54.5%

Both teams to score

No 3.15 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.33 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	2.15 46.5%	2.24 44.6%	2.15 46.5%	2.20 45.5%	2.20 45.5%	2.15 46.5%
X	3.90 25.6%	4.11 24.3%	3.75 26.7%	3.90 25.6%	3.95 25.3%	3.90 25.6%
	2.88 34.7%	3.06 32.7%	2.88 34.7%	2.90 34.5%	2.95 33.9%	2.88 34.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	3.10 32.3%	3.15 31.8%	3.20 31.3%	3.00 33.3%	3.10 32.3%	3.30 30.3%	3.20 31.3%	3.10 32.3%	3.15 31.8%
yes	1.33 75.2%	1.32 75.8%	1.33 75.2%	1.36 73.5%	1.33 75.2%	1.30 76.9%	1.30 76.9%	1.32 75.8%	1.32 75.8%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.67 59.9%	1.72 58.1%	1.67 59.9%	1.67 59.9%	1.70 58.8%	1.62 61.7%
home_away	1.20 83.3%	1.28 78.1%	1.25 80.0%	1.25 80.0%	1.25 80.0%	1.20 83.3%
home_draw	1.40 71.4%	1.43 69.9%	1.40 71.4%	1.40 71.4%	1.42 70.4%	1.36 73.5%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	—	1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0	—	1.01 99.0%
Over 1.5	1.11 90.1%	1.05 95.2%
Over 1.75	—	1.08 92.6%
Over 2.0	—	1.09 91.7%
Over 2.25	—	1.23 81.3%
Over 2.5	1.36 73.5%	1.34 74.6%
Over 2.75	—	1.42 70.4%
Over 3.5	1.85 54.1%	—
Over 4.5	2.95 33.9%	—
Over 5.5	5.00 20.0%	—
Under 1.5	6.25 16.0%	—
Under 2.5	3.10 32.3%	—
Under 3.5	1.90 52.6%	—
Under 4.5	1.38 72.5%	—
Under 5.5	1.17 85.5%	—

Match center

Bayer Leverkusen

Founded 1904

RB Leipzig

Founded 2009

Match center

Bayer Leverkusen

W L W W D

25.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen 2:1 1. FC Köln

18.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen 1:2 FC Augsburg

11.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen 1:0 Borussia Dortmund

04.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen 6:3 VfL Wolfsburg

21.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen 3:3 1. FC Heidenheim

3 Wins

1 Draws

1 Losses

2.6 Scored

1.8 Conceded

10 Points

RB Leipzig

W W W W W

24.04 18:30 UTC Bundesliga

RB Leipzig 3:1 Union Berlin

18.04 16:30 UTC Bundesliga

RB Leipzig 3:1 Eintracht Frankfurt

11.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

RB Leipzig 1:0 Borussia Mönchengladbach

04.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

RB Leipzig 2:1 Werder Bremen

20.03 19:30 UTC Bundesliga

RB Leipzig 5:0 1899 Hoffenheim

5 Wins

0 Draws

0 Losses

2.8 Scored

0.6 Conceded

15 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyBayer Leverkusen - RB Leipzig

Bayer Leverkusen

1 matches total

RB Leipzig

Bayer Leverkusen: 1 (100%)

Draws:0 (0%)

RB Leipzig: 0 (0%)

Biggest win Bayer Leverkusen 3:1 (20.12 17:30 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 4 goals (3:1, 20.12 17:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

3 Goals scored 1

1 Goals conceded 3

Match history

20.12 17:30 UTC

Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen

3:1

RB Leipzig

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.