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Bundesliga
Bundesliga Germany
02.05.2026 13:30 UTC Match prediction
02.05.2026 13:30 UTC
Finished

Bundesliga

Germany

Bayern München - 1. FC Heidenheim

Germany Football
Stadium Alyants Arena
Bayern München
Bayern München
3 : 3
Finished
1. FC Heidenheim
1. FC Heidenheim
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Bayern München — 81%

1 · Bayern München ✓ Pick81.2%
market76%
X · draw12.1%
market14%
2 · 1. FC Heidenheim6.8%
market10%

Model estimate: win Bayern München 81.2%, draw 12.1%, win 1. FC Heidenheim 6.8%. Model favourite — Bayern München.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Bayern München - 1. FC Heidenheim May 2, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Bayern München.

Strongest: Bayern München - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.25 / X 6.83 / 2 9.38
  • 1X2 market: Bayern München 75.9% / X 14.0% / 1. FC Heidenheim 10.2%
  • Glicko: Bayern München 81.2% / X 12.1% / 1. FC Heidenheim 6.8%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 82.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.3%
1 ✓ Pick 76.0%
X 13.9%
2 10.1%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 7.1%
Over 2.5 79.8%
Under 2.5 20.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 79.8%
Total Over 2.5
Score 3:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 02.05.2026 13:30 UTC
Stadium Alyants Arena (Myunkhen)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Bayern München 81%
💹 Market Bayern München 7586%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Bayern München - 1. FC Heidenheim

Bayern München: Win 1.25 Bayern München: Draw 6.50 1. FC Heidenheim Win: 9.00 Obschiy total golov bolshe 3.5: 1.62 Obschiy total golov menshe 3.5: 2.30 Individualnyy total golov Bayern München bolshe 2.5: 1.57 Individualnyy total golov Bayern München menshe 2.5: 2.25 Indivi…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 3:3
Events 20
Statistics 24
Lineups 40
min Event Player Team
22' 22' Normal Goal | B. Zivzivadze | assist/sub out: M. Busch B. Zivzivadze 1. FC Heidenheim
31' 31' Normal Goal | E. Dinkçi E. Dinkçi 1. FC Heidenheim
44' 44' Normal Goal | L. Goretzka Leon Goretzka Bayern München
45' 45' Yellow Card | N. Jackson Nicolas Jackson Bayern München
45' 45' Yellow Card | D. Ramaj D. Ramaj 1. FC Heidenheim
46' 46' Substitution 1 | A. Pavlović | assist/sub out: J. Kimmich Aleksandar Pavlović Bayern München
46' 46' Substitution 2 | J. Musiala | assist/sub out: M. Olise J. Musiala Bayern München
46' 46' Substitution 3 | Bara Ndiaye | assist/sub out: H. Kane B. Ndiaye Bayern München
Metric Bayern München 1. FC Heidenheim SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.31 2.59 final
Zablokirovannye udary 8 4 final
Shots off target 8 3 final
Shots on target 7 5 final
Udary vsego 23 12 final
Fouls soversheno 6 7 final
Zheltye kartochki 3 2 final
Offsides 2 2 final
Bayern München #8 Leon Goretzka, #10 J. Musiala, #21 Hiroki Itō, #27 Konrad Laimer, #40 J. Urbig, #4 Jonathan Tah, #11 Nicolas Jackson, #39 B. Ndiaye, #3 Kim Min-Jae, #45 Aleksandar Pavlović, #44 Josip Stanišić
1. FC Heidenheim #19 J. Föhrenbach, #22 A. Ibrahimović, #26 Hennes Behrens, #41 D. Ramaj, #6 P. Mainka, #11 B. Zivzivadze, #30 N. Dorsch, #2 M. Busch, #3 J. Schöppner, #18 M. Pieringer, #8 E. Dinkçi
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Davies Bayern München Dribling uspeshno 1
A. Davies Bayern München Edinoborstva vyigrano 1
A. Davies Bayern München Seyvy 0
A. Davies Bayern München football.player.minutes_played 23
A. Davies Bayern München Klyuchevye pasy 16
A. Davies Bayern München Reyting (staryy) 6.3
A. Davies Bayern München Otbory vsego 15
Aleksandar Pavlović Bayern München Dribling popytki 2
Aleksandar Pavlović Bayern München Edinoborstva vsego 1
Aleksandar Pavlović Bayern München Edinoborstva vyigrano 5
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Bayern München 78.5% 81.2% market and model agree
Draw 13.0% 12.1% draw risk
1. FC Heidenheim 8.5% 6.8%
xG - 2.91 : 0.75
Total 2.5 Over 82.4% - Under 17.6%
Model check - - Difference 0.03
The match leans toward a high total Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 81.2% / 12.1% / 6.8% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,832 / 1,373 Bayern München / 1. FC Heidenheim
RD 92 / 77 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 9.04 market consensus · no value · model 6.8%
X 6.83 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.25 market consensus · no value · model 81.2%
Double chance
X2 3.93 market consensus · no value · model 18.9%
12 1.11 market consensus · no value · model 87.9%
1X 1.06 market consensus · no value · model 93.3%
Handicap
2 -0.5 4.00 market consensus · line only
2 -1 3.25 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.21 market consensus · line only
1 -1 1.30 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.17 market consensus · no value · model 82.4%
Under 2.5 4.62 market consensus · no value · model 17.6%
Both teams to score
No 2.68 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.44 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
1.24 80.7% 1.29 77.5% 1.25 80.0% 1.27 78.7% 1.28 78.1% 1.20 83.3%
X 6.50 15.4% 6.95 14.4% 6.00 16.7% 7.00 14.3% 7.00 14.3% 7.00 14.3%
9.30 10.8% 10.40 9.6% 8.50 11.8% 8.50 11.8% 10.00 10.0% 9.50 10.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 2.55 39.2% 2.69 37.2% 2.90 34.5% 2.50 40.0% 2.75 36.4% 2.80 35.7% 2.55 39.2% 2.80 35.7% 2.63 38.0%
yes 1.48 67.6% 1.42 70.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.42 70.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.38 72.5% 1.44 69.4%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 3.95 25.3% 3.98 25.1% 3.80 26.3% 3.75 26.7% 3.90 25.6% 4.00 25.0%
home_away 1.11 90.1% 1.13 88.5% 1.13 88.5% 1.10 90.9% 1.11 90.1% 1.07 93.5%
home_draw 1.05 95.2% 1.06 94.3% 1.06 94.3% 1.07 93.5% 1.08 92.6% 1.04 96.2%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 — 1.00 100.0%
Over 1.5 1.07 93.5% 1.02 98.0%
Over 2.0 — 1.00 100.0%
Over 2.5 1.22 82.0% 1.14 87.7%
Over 2.75 — 1.18 84.8%
Over 3.0 — 1.22 82.0%
Over 3.5 1.57 63.7% —
Over 4.5 2.25 44.4% —
Over 5.5 3.55 28.2% —
Over 6.5 6.00 16.7% —
Under 1.5 8.00 12.5% —
Under 2.5 4.20 23.8% —
Under 3.5 2.35 42.6% —
Under 4.5 1.62 61.7% —
Under 5.5 1.28 78.1% —
Under 6.5 1.12 89.3% —
Match center
Bayern München
Founded 1900
1. FC Heidenheim
Founded 1946
Match center
Bayern München
W W W W W
25.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayern München 4:3 MayntsMaynts
19.04 15:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayern München 4:2 VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart
11.04 16:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayern München 5:0 FC St. PauliFC St. Pauli
04.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayern München 3:2 FrayburgFrayburg
21.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayern München 4:0 Union BerlinUnion Berlin
5 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
4.0 Scored
1.4 Conceded
15 Points
1. FC Heidenheim
W L W D D
25.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
1. FC Heidenheim 2:0 FC St. PauliFC St. Pauli
19.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
1. FC Heidenheim 1:2 FrayburgFrayburg
11.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
1. FC Heidenheim 3:1 Union BerlinUnion Berlin
04.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
1. FC Heidenheim 2:2 Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach
21.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga
1. FC Heidenheim 3:3 Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen
2 Wins
2 Draws
1 Losses
2.2 Scored
1.6 Conceded
8 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyBayern München - 1. FC Heidenheim

Bayern München
2 matches total
1. FC Heidenheim
Bayern München: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
1. FC Heidenheim: 2 (100%)
Biggest win Bavariya 4:0 (21.12 16:30 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 4 goals (4:0, 21.12 16:30 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

21.12 16:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bavariya
4:0
1. FC Heidenheim
19.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bavariya
4:0
1. FC Heidenheim
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.