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Start
16.05.2026 13:30 UTC
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16.05.2026 13:30 UTC
Finished
Bundesliga
Bayern München - 1. FC Köln
5
:
1
Finished
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Bayern München - 1. FC Köln May 16, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Bayern München.
Line favourite market consensus: Bayern München. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.16 / X 8.70 / 2 12.25
- 1X2 market: Bayern München 81.2% / X 10.9% / 1. FC Köln 7.8%
- Total 2.5: over probability 84.9%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 5.9%
1
81.4%
X
10.9%
2
7.7%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 7.0%
Over 2.5
84.9%
Under 2.5
15.1%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: Bayern München
Main outcome
Bayern München
Agreement
1/1
Confidence
85.0%
Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.
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Match center
Bayern München - 1. FC Köln
Form
5/5
recent games
H2H
1
head-to-head matches
Market
0
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
yes
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
5:1
Events
18
Statistics
22
Lineups
40
min
Event
Player
Team
10'
10' Normal Goal | H. Kane | assist/sub out: J. Kimmich
Harry Kane
Bayern München
13'
13' Normal Goal | H. Kane | assist/sub out: J. Kimmich
Harry Kane
Bayern München
18'
18' Normal Goal | S. El Mala
S. El Mala
1. FC Köln
22'
22' Normal Goal | T. Bischof | assist/sub out: L. Karl
Tom Bischof
Bayern München
34'
34' Yellow Card | J. Schmied
J. Schmied
1. FC Köln
37'
37' Yellow Card | K. Laimer
Konrad Laimer
Bayern München
46'
46' Substitution 1 | J. Schmied | assist/sub out: L. Maina
J. Schmied
1. FC Köln
46'
46' Substitution 3 | K. Laimer | assist/sub out: J. Stanisic
Konrad Laimer
Bayern München
Metric
Bayern München
1. FC Köln
SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG)
3.05
0.98
final
Zablokirovannye udary
5
4
final
Shots off target
7
3
final
Shots on target
7
2
final
Udary vsego
19
9
final
Fouls soversheno
6
4
final
Zheltye kartochki
1
1
final
Offsides
5
1
final
Bayern München
#1 Manuel Neuer, #8 Leon Goretzka, #9 Harry Kane, #14 Luis Díaz, #20 Tom Bischof, #4 Jonathan Tah, #6 Joshua Kimmich, #10 J. Musiala, #2 Dayot Upamecano, #42 L. Karl, #27 Konrad Laimer
1. FC Köln
#1 M. Schwabe, #13 S. El Mala, #17 A. Castro-Montes, #32 K. Lund, #6 E. Martel, #30 M. Bulter, #39 C. Ozkacar, #16 J. Kaminski, #22 J. Simpson-Pusey, #2 J. Schmied, #28 S. Sebulonsen
Player
Team
Metric
SStats
Dayot Upamecano
Bayern München
football.player.assists
0
Dayot Upamecano
Bayern München
football.player.minutes_played
90
Harry Kane
Bayern München
football.player.assists
0
Harry Kane
Bayern München
football.player.goals
3
Harry Kane
Bayern München
football.player.minutes_played
90
J. Musiala
Bayern München
football.player.assists
0
J. Musiala
Bayern München
football.player.minutes_played
70
J. Urbig
Bayern München
football.player.assists
0
J. Urbig
Bayern München
football.player.minutes_played
30
Jonathan Tah
Bayern München
football.player.assists
0
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
9.26
market consensus · line only
X
8.70
market consensus · line only
1
1.16
market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2
5.18
market consensus · line only
12
1.07
market consensus · line only
1X
1.04
market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5
5.38
market consensus · line only
2 -1
4.43
market consensus · line only
1 -0.5
1.14
market consensus · line only
1 -1
1.17
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.10
market consensus · line only
Under 2.5
6.20
market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No
2.73
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.40
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.16 86.2% | 1.19 84.0% | 1.18 84.8% | 1.14 87.7% | 1.20 83.3% | 1.13 88.5% | |
| X | 8.60 11.6% | 9.35 10.7% | 7.50 13.3% | 8.50 11.8% | 9.25 10.8% | 9.00 11.1% |
| 10.50 9.5% | 14.50 6.9% | 11.00 9.1% | 11.00 9.1% | 12.50 8.0% | 14.00 7.1% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor | Marathonbet | Unibet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 2.80 35.7% | 2.69 37.2% | 2.80 35.7% | 2.62 38.2% | 2.75 36.4% | 2.80 35.7% | 2.80 35.7% | 2.65 37.7% | 2.63 38.0% |
| yes | 1.40 71.4% | 1.42 70.4% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.44 69.4% | 1.42 70.4% | 1.40 71.4% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.42 70.4% | 1.44 69.4% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 5.00 20.0% | 5.35 18.7% | 4.80 20.8% | 6.00 16.7% | 5.00 20.0% | 5.50 18.2% |
| home_away | 1.06 94.3% | 1.09 91.7% | 1.08 92.6% | 1.07 93.5% | 1.08 92.6% | 1.05 95.2% |
| home_draw | 1.04 96.2% | 1.03 97.1% | 1.05 95.2% | 1.05 95.2% | 1.05 95.2% | 1.03 97.1% |
Goals Over/Under
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | — | 1.00 100.0% |
| Over 1.5 | — | 1.02 98.0% |
| Over 2.0 | — | 1.04 96.2% |
| Over 2.5 | 1.10 90.9% | 1.08 92.6% |
| Over 2.75 | — | 1.11 90.1% |
| Over 3.0 | — | 1.12 89.3% |
| Over 3.25 | — | 1.23 81.3% |
| Over 3.5 | 1.30 76.9% | — |
| Over 4.5 | 1.73 57.8% | — |
| Over 5.5 | 2.50 40.0% | — |
| Over 6.5 | 3.95 25.3% | — |
| Over 10.5 | — | 41.00 2.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 6.50 15.4% | — |
| Under 3.5 | 3.35 29.9% | — |
| Under 4.5 | 2.10 47.6% | — |
| Under 5.5 | 1.50 66.7% | — |
| Under 6.5 | 1.25 80.0% | — |
Match center
Bayern München
W
D
W
W
W
09.05 16:30 UTC
Bundesliga
Bayern München
1:0
VfL Wolfsburg
VfL Wolfsburg
02.05 13:30 UTC
Bundesliga
Bayern München
3:3
1. FC Heidenheim
1. FC Heidenheim
25.04 13:30 UTC
Bundesliga
Bayern München
4:3
Maynts
Maynts
19.04 15:30 UTC
Bundesliga
Bayern München
4:2
VfB Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart
11.04 16:30 UTC
Bundesliga
Bayern München
5:0
FC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauli
4
Wins
1
Draws
0
Losses
3.4
Scored
1.6
Conceded
13
Points
1. FC Köln
L
D
L
D
W
10.05 15:30 UTC
Bundesliga
1. FC Köln
1:3
1. FC Heidenheim
1. FC Heidenheim
02.05 13:30 UTC
Bundesliga
1. FC Köln
2:2
Union Berlin
Union Berlin
25.04 13:30 UTC
Bundesliga
1. FC Köln
1:2
Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen
17.04 18:30 UTC
Bundesliga
1. FC Köln
1:1
FC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauli
12.04 13:30 UTC
Bundesliga
1. FC Köln
3:1
Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen
1
Wins
2
Draws
2
Losses
1.6
Scored
1.8
Conceded
5
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyBayern München - 1. FC Köln
Bayern München
1
matches total
Bayern München: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
1. FC Köln: 1 (100%)
Biggest win
Bavariya 3:1 (14.01 19:30 UTC)
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
4 goals (3:1, 14.01 19:30 UTC)
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Overall statistics
Match history
14.01 19:30 UTC
Bundesliga
Bundesliga
Bavariya
3:1
1. FC Köln
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- Full AI consensus of 7 models
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