Bundesliga
Bundesliga Germany
28.09.2024 16:30 UTC
Finished

Bundesliga

Germany

Bayern München - Bayer Leverkusen

Germany Futbol
Bayern München
Bayern München
1 : 1
Finished
Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Bayern München - Bayer Leverkusen 28 сентября 2024

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Bayern München.

Line favourite market consensus: Bayern München. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.68 / X 4.53 / 2 4.63
  • 1X2 market: Bayern München 57.7% / X 21.4% / Bayer Leverkusen 20.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 3.2%
1 57.7%
X 21.4%
2 20.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 28.09.2024 16:30 UTC
Match center

Bayern München - Bayer Leverkusen

Form 3/2 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.63 market consensus · line only
X 4.53 market consensus · line only
1 1.68 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 2.28 market consensus · line only
12 1.24 market consensus · line only
1X 1.23 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome SStats Consensus
П1 1.68 59.5%
Х 4.53 22.1%
П2 4.63 21.6%

Double chance

Outcome SStats Consensus
draw_away 2.28 43.9%
home_away 1.24 80.7%
home_draw 1.23 81.3%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome SStats Consensus
ТБ 3.5 1.90 52.6%
ТМ 3.5 2.01 49.8%

Home/Away

Outcome SStats Consensus
П1 1.32 75.8%
П2 3.60 27.8%
Match center
Bayern München
W W W
21.09 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayern München 5:0 Werder BremenWerder Bremen
14.09 16:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayern München 6:1 Holstein KielHolstein Kiel
01.09 15:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayern München 2:0 FrayburgFrayburg
3 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
4.3 Scored
0.3 Conceded
9 Points
Bayer Leverkusen
W W
22.09 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen 4:3 VfL WolfsburgVfL Wolfsburg
14.09 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen 4:1 1899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim
2 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
4.0 Scored
2.0 Conceded
6 Points