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Bundesliga
Bundesliga Germany
12.04.2025 16:30 UTC Match prediction
12.04.2025 16:30 UTC
Finished

Bundesliga

Germany

Bayern München - Borussia Dortmund

Germany Football
Bayern München
Bayern München
2 : 2
Finished
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Bayern München - Borussia Dortmund April 12, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Bayern München.

Line favourite market consensus: Bayern München. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.49 / X 5.13 / 2 5.86
  • 1X2 market: Bayern München 64.7% / X 18.8% / Borussia Dortmund 16.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 3.7%
1 64.7%
X 18.8%
2 16.5%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 12.04.2025 16:30 UTC
Match center

Bayern München - Borussia Dortmund

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 5.86 market consensus · line only
X 5.13 market consensus · line only
1 1.49 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 2.77 market consensus · line only
12 1.19 market consensus · line only
1X 1.16 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.49 67.1%
X 5.13 19.5%
5.86 17.1%

Double chance

Outcome SStats Consensus
draw_away 2.77 36.1%
home_away 1.19 84.0%
home_draw 1.16 86.2%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome SStats Consensus
Over 3.5 2.04 49.0%
Under 3.5 1.82 55.0%

Home/Away

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.21 82.6%
4.73 21.1%
Match center
Bayern München
W W W D D
04.04 18:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayern München 3:1 FC AugsburgFC Augsburg
27.10 14:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayern München 5:0 VfL BochumVfL Bochum
19.10 16:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayern München 4:0 VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart
06.10 15:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayern München 3:3 Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt
28.09 16:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayern München 1:1 Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen
3 Wins
2 Draws
0 Losses
3.2 Scored
1.0 Conceded
11 Points
Borussia Dortmund
W L W L W
05.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund 4:1 FrayburgFrayburg
26.10 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund 1:2 FC AugsburgFC Augsburg
18.10 18:30 UTC Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund 2:1 FC St. PauliFC St. Pauli
05.10 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund 1:2 Union BerlinUnion Berlin
27.09 18:30 UTC Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund 4:2 VfL BochumVfL Bochum
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
2.4 Scored
1.6 Conceded
9 Points