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Bundesliga Germany

18.10.2025 16:30 UTC Match prediction

18.10.2025 16:30 UTC

Finished

Bundesliga

Bayern München - Borussia Dortmund

Germany Football

Bayern München

2 : 1

Finished

Borussia Dortmund

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Bayern München - Borussia Dortmund October 18, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Bayern München.

Line favourite market consensus: Bayern München. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.36 / X 5.67 / 2 7.56
1X2 market: Bayern München 70.3% / X 16.9% / Borussia Dortmund 12.8%
Total 2.5: over probability 72.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.4%

1 70.4%

X 16.9%

2 12.7%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.1%

Over 2.5 71.9%

Under 2.5 28.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 18.10.2025 16:30 UTC

Match center

Bayern München - Borussia Dortmund

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 7.65 market consensus · line only

X 5.68 market consensus · line only

1 1.36 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 3.20 market consensus · line only

12 1.16 market consensus · line only

1X 1.11 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 3.20 market consensus · line only

2 -1 2.52 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 6.40 market consensus · line only

1 -0.5 1.37 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.31 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 3.36 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 2.51 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.51 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	1.36 73.5%
X	5.75 17.4%
	8.25 12.1%

Match Winner

Outcome	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Marathonbet	Pinnacle	SStats Consensus
	1.35 74.1%	1.39 71.9%	1.36 73.5%	1.36 73.5%	1.36 73.5%	1.36 73.5%
X	5.90 17.0%	5.97 16.8%	5.50 18.2%	5.85 17.1%	5.75 17.4%	5.75 17.4%
	7.60 13.2%	7.75 12.9%	7.00 14.3%	7.60 13.2%	8.25 12.1%	8.25 12.1%

Both teams to score

Outcome	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Marathonbet	Pinnacle	William Hill
no	2.55 39.2%	2.48 40.3%	2.50 40.0%	2.44 41.0%	2.56 39.1%	2.50 40.0%
yes	1.52 65.8%	1.49 67.1%	1.50 66.7%	1.49 67.1%	1.55 64.5%	1.50 66.7%

Double chance

Outcome	1xBet	Bet365	Marathonbet	Pinnacle	SStats Consensus	William Hill
draw_away	3.24 30.9%	3.00 33.3%	3.32 30.1%	3.38 29.6%	3.38 29.6%	2.90 34.5%
home_away	1.16 86.2%	1.14 87.7%	1.16 86.2%	1.17 85.5%	1.17 85.5%	1.17 85.5%
home_draw	1.10 90.9%	1.10 90.9%	1.11 90.1%	1.11 90.1%	1.11 90.1%	1.11 90.1%