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Bundesliga Germany

14.12.2025 16:30 UTC Match prediction

14.12.2025 16:30 UTC

Finished

Bundesliga

Bayern München - FSV Mainz 05

Germany Football

Bayern München

2 : 2

Finished

FSV Mainz 05

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Bayern München - FSV Mainz 05 December 14, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Bayern München.

Line favourite market consensus: Bayern München. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.10 / X 11.61 / 2 20.84
1X2 market: Bayern München 87.1% / X 8.3% / FSV Mainz 05 4.6%
Total 2.5: over probability 79.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.3%

1 87.1%

X 8.3%

2 4.6%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.9%

Over 2.5 79.3%

Under 2.5 20.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 14.12.2025 16:30 UTC

Match center

Bayern München - FSV Mainz 05

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

1 1.10 market consensus · line only

X 10.00 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 7.15 market consensus · line only

12 1.05 market consensus · line only

1X 1.02 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 6.73 market consensus · line only

2 -1 5.42 market consensus · line only

1 -0.5 1.09 market consensus · line only

1 -1 1.12 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.18 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 4.52 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.84 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.91 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	1.10 90.9%
X	13.50 7.4%
	20.50 4.9%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	1.09 91.7%	1.09 91.7%	1.14 87.7%	1.10 90.9%	1.09 91.7%	1.11 90.1%
X	11.00 9.1%	12.00 8.3%	11.00 9.1%	10.00 10.0%	11.00 9.1%	11.75 8.5%
	19.50 5.1%	23.00 4.4%	22.00 4.6%	17.00 5.9%	21.00 4.8%	25.00 4.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	Marathonbet	Pinnacle
no	1.95 51.3%	1.88 53.2%	1.83 54.6%	1.85 54.1%	1.80 55.6%	1.85 54.1%	1.83 54.6%	1.81 55.3%	1.87 53.5%
yes	1.80 55.6%	1.93 51.8%	1.89 52.9%	1.85 54.1%	1.95 51.3%	1.88 53.2%	1.91 52.4%	1.89 52.9%	1.97 50.8%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Marathonbet
draw_away	7.50 13.3%	6.85 14.6%	6.50 15.4%	8.00 12.5%	7.50 13.3%	6.90 14.5%
home_away	1.04 96.2%	1.07 93.5%	1.05 95.2%	1.05 95.2%	1.05 95.2%	1.06 94.3%
home_draw	1.01 99.0%	1.02 98.0%	1.03 97.1%	1.01 99.0%	1.03 97.1%	1.01 99.0%

Match center

Bayern München

W W W D W

06.12 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayern München 5:0 VfB Stuttgart

29.11 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayern München 3:1 FC St. Pauli

22.11 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayern München 6:2 Frayburg

08.11 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayern München 2:2 Union Berlin

01.11 17:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayern München 3:0 Bayer Leverkusen

4 Wins

1 Draws

0 Losses

3.8 Scored

1.0 Conceded

13 Points

FSV Mainz 05

L L D L D

05.12 19:30 UTC Bundesliga

FSV Mainz 05 0:1 Borussia Mönchengladbach

30.11 18:30 UTC Bundesliga

FSV Mainz 05 0:4 Frayburg

21.11 19:30 UTC Bundesliga

FSV Mainz 05 1:1 1899 Hoffenheim

09.11 18:30 UTC Bundesliga

FSV Mainz 05 0:1 Eintracht Frankfurt

01.11 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

FSV Mainz 05 1:1 Werder Bremen

0 Wins

2 Draws

3 Losses

0.4 Scored

1.6 Conceded

2 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyBayern München - FSV Mainz 05

Bayern München

1 matches total

FSV Mainz 05

Bayern München: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

FSV Mainz 05: 1 (100%)

Biggest win Bavariya 3:0 (26.04 13:30 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 3 goals (3:0, 26.04 13:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0

0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

26.04 13:30 UTC

Bundesliga

Bavariya

3:0

Maynts