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Bundesliga Germany

21.03.2026 14:30 UTC Match prediction

21.03.2026 14:30 UTC

Finished

Bundesliga

Bayern München - Union Berlin

Germany Football

Bayern München

4 : 0

Finished

Union Berlin

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Bayern München - Union Berlin March 21, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Bayern München.

Line favourite market consensus: Bayern München. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.15 / X 8.74 / 2 15.54
1X2 market: Bayern München 82.8% / X 11.0% / Union Berlin 6.2%
Total 2.5: over probability 73.1%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.8%

1 82.9%

X 10.9%

2 6.1%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.8%

Over 2.5 73.2%

Under 2.5 26.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 21.03.2026 14:30 UTC

Match center

Bayern München - Union Berlin

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

X 8.75 market consensus · line only

1 1.15 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 5.44 market consensus · line only

12 1.07 market consensus · line only

1X 1.03 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 5.35 market consensus · line only

2 -1 4.35 market consensus · line only

1 -0.5 1.14 market consensus · line only

1 -1 1.18 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.28 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 3.49 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.87 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.88 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	1.17 85.5%
X	8.92 11.2%
	12.98 7.7%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	1.15 87.0%	1.16 86.2%	1.17 85.5%	1.15 87.0%	1.17 85.5%	1.18 84.8%
X	7.50 13.3%	8.40 11.9%	10.00 10.0%	8.00 12.5%	9.00 11.1%	8.50 11.8%
	14.50 6.9%	16.00 6.3%	17.00 5.9%	13.00 7.7%	13.00 7.7%	16.50 6.1%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet
no	1.90 52.6%	1.89 52.9%	1.87 53.5%	1.85 54.1%	1.91 52.4%	1.87 53.5%	1.83 54.6%	1.85 54.1%	1.85 54.1%
yes	1.85 54.1%	1.92 52.1%	1.85 54.1%	1.85 54.1%	1.91 52.4%	1.87 53.5%	1.91 52.4%	1.87 53.5%	1.85 54.1%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	5.00 20.0%	5.90 17.0%	5.00 20.0%	5.00 20.0%	5.30 18.9%	5.50 18.2%
home_away	1.07 93.5%	1.08 92.6%	1.06 94.3%	1.07 93.5%	1.08 92.6%	1.06 94.3%
home_draw	1.03 97.1%	1.03 97.1%	1.04 96.2%	1.04 96.2%	1.04 96.2%	1.02 98.0%

Match center

Bayern München

D W W W W

14.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayern München 1:1 Bayer Leverkusen

06.03 19:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayern München 4:1 Borussia Mönchengladbach

28.02 17:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayern München 3:2 Borussia Dortmund

21.02 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayern München 3:2 Eintracht Frankfurt

14.02 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayern München 3:0 Werder Bremen

4 Wins

1 Draws

0 Losses

2.8 Scored

1.2 Conceded

13 Points

Union Berlin

W L L W L

15.03 16:30 UTC Bundesliga

Union Berlin 1:0 Frayburg

08.03 16:30 UTC Bundesliga

Union Berlin 1:4 Werder Bremen

28.02 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Union Berlin 0:1 Borussia Mönchengladbach

21.02 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Union Berlin 1:0 Bayer Leverkusen

14.02 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Union Berlin 2:3 Hamburger SV

2 Wins

0 Draws

3 Losses

1.0 Scored

1.6 Conceded

6 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyBayern München - Union Berlin

Bayern München

1 matches total

Union Berlin

Bayern München: 0 (0%)

Draws:1 (100%)

Union Berlin: 0 (0%)

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 4 goals (2:2, 08.11 14:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 2:2 (08.11 14:30 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0

0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

08.11 14:30 UTC

Bundesliga

Bavariya

2:2

Union Berlin