Bundesliga Germany

19.04.2026 15:30 UTC Match prediction

19.04.2026 15:30 UTC

Finished

Bundesliga

Bayern München - VfB Stuttgart

Germany Futbol

Stadium Альянц Арена

Bayern München

4 : 2

Finished

VfB Stuttgart

🎯 PropickAI prediction

High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Bayern München — 68%

1 · Bayern München ✓ Прогноз68.0%

market67%

X · draw17.2%

market17%

2 · VfB Stuttgart14.8%

market15%

Model estimate: win Bayern München 68.0%, draw 17.2%, win VfB Stuttgart 14.8%. Model favourite — Bayern München.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Bayern München - VfB Stuttgart 19 апреля 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Bayern München.

Strongest: Bayern München - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.42 / X 5.47 / 2 6.16
1X2 market: Bayern München 67.1% / X 17.4% / VfB Stuttgart 15.5%
Glicko: Bayern München 68.0% / X 17.2% / VfB Stuttgart 14.8%
Total 2.5: over probability 40.1%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.9%

1 ✓ Прогноз 67.1%

X 17.4%

2 15.5%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.3%

Over 2.5 76.5%

Under 2.5 23.5%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

Лидер исходов AI: П1

Main outcome П1

Agreement 4/4

Confidence 68.4%

Total ТБ 2.5

Score 2:1

Модели дают единый сигнал. Такие матчи мы помечаем как более сильные.

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Match center

Start 19.04.2026 15:30 UTC

Stadium Альянц Арена (Мюнхен)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Bayern München 68%

💹 Market Bayern München 6713%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Bayern München - VfB Stuttgart

Bayern München: Победа 1.40 Bayern München: Ничья 5.50 VfB Stuttgart Победа: 6.50 Общий тотал голов больше 3.5: 1.62 Общий тотал голов меньше 3.5: 2.30 Индивидуальный тотал голов Bayern München больше 2.5: 1.73 Индивидуальный тотал голов Bayern München меньше 2.5: 2.00 Индивидуа…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 4:2

Events 16

Statistics 22

Lineups 39

min Event Player Team

21' 21' Normal Goal | Chris Führich | assist/sub out: Bilal El Khannouss VfB Stuttgart

31' 31' Normal Goal | Raphael Guerreiro | assist/sub out: Jamal Musiala Bayern München

33' 33' Normal Goal | Nicolas Jackson | assist/sub out: Luis Díaz Bayern München

37' 37' Normal Goal | Alphonso Davies | assist/sub out: Luis Díaz Daniel Borges Bayern München

46' 46' Substitution 2 | Luis Díaz | assist/sub out: Michael Olise H. Tabaković Bayern München

46' 46' Substitution 1 | Finn Jeltsch | assist/sub out: Luca Jaquez VfB Stuttgart

46' 46' Substitution 1 | Jamal Musiala | assist/sub out: Harry Kane Bayern München

52' 52' Normal Goal Bayern München

Metric Bayern München VfB Stuttgart SStats

Ожидаемые голы (xG) 4.61 1.35 final

Заблокированные удары 11 3 final

Удары мимо 8 1 final

Удары в створ 9 7 final

Удары всего 28 11 final

Фолы совершено 6 3 final

Офсайды 6 1 final

Владение мячом, % 66 34 final

Bayern München #3 Kim Min-Jae, #6 Joshua Kimmich, #8 Leon Goretzka, #10 J. Musiala, #11 Nicolas Jackson, #14 Luis Díaz, #19 A. Davies, #21 Hiroki Itō, #22 Raphaël Guerreiro, #40 J. Urbig, #44 Josip Stanišić

VfB Stuttgart #3 R. Hendriks, #4 J. Vagnoman, #6 Angelo Stiller, #8 Tiago Tomás, #10 C. Führich, #11 Bilal El Khannouss, #16 A. Karazor, #18 Jamie Leweling, #24 J. Chabot, #29 Finn Jeltsch, #33 Alexander Nübel

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Davies Bayern München football.player.assists 0

A. Davies Bayern München Дриблинг попытки 5

A. Davies Bayern München Дриблинг успешно 4

A. Davies Bayern München Единоборства выиграно 7

A. Davies Bayern München Фолы на игроке 3

A. Davies Bayern München football.player.goals 1

A. Davies Bayern München Сейвы 0

A. Davies Bayern München football.player.minutes_played 62

A. Davies Bayern München Точность пасов % 1

A. Davies Bayern München Ключевые пасы 28

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Bayern München 68.6% 68.0% market and model agree

Draw 17.2% 17.2% draw risk

VfB Stuttgart 14.2% 14.8%

xG - 2.53 : 1.11

Total 2.5 Over 40.1% - Under 60.0%

Model check - - Difference 0.01

Market vs Glicko gap: 0.01

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 68.0% / 17.2% / 14.8% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,827 / 1,607 Bayern München / VfB Stuttgart

RD 94 / 76 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: value не найден

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 6.16 market consensus · no value · model 14.8%

X 5.47 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.42 market consensus · no value · model 68.0%

Double chance

X2 2.85 market consensus · no value · model 32.0%

12 1.14 market consensus · no value · model 82.9%

1X 1.12 market consensus · no value · model 85.2%

Handicap

2 -0.5 2.87 market consensus · line only

2 -1 2.34 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 5.63 market consensus · line only

2 +1 9.80 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.23 market consensus · no value · model 40.1%

Under 2.5 4.00 market consensus · weak value +139.8% · model 60.0%

Both teams to score

No 2.94 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.36 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
П1	1.40 71.4%	1.40 71.4%	1.46 68.5%	1.40 71.4%	1.44 69.4%	1.47 68.0%
Х	5.50 18.2%	5.70 17.5%	5.64 17.7%	5.00 20.0%	5.50 18.2%	5.50 18.2%
П2	5.75 17.4%	6.60 15.2%	6.45 15.5%	5.75 17.4%	6.00 16.7%	6.20 16.1%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet
no	2.90 34.5%	2.97 33.7%	2.94 34.0%	2.90 34.5%	3.00 33.3%	2.87 34.8%	3.00 33.3%	3.00 33.3%	2.89 34.6%
yes	1.38 72.5%	1.40 71.4%	1.36 73.5%	1.36 73.5%	1.36 73.5%	1.39 71.9%	1.36 73.5%	1.33 75.2%	1.36 73.5%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	2.90 34.5%	2.92 34.3%	2.80 35.7%	2.75 36.4%	2.85 35.1%	2.88 34.7%
home_away	1.11 90.1%	1.18 84.8%	1.17 85.5%	1.14 87.7%	1.16 86.2%	1.13 88.5%
home_draw	1.11 90.1%	1.14 87.7%	1.13 88.5%	1.12 89.3%	1.15 87.0%	1.08 92.6%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet
ТБ 0.5	—	—	1.01 99.0%
ТБ 1.0	—	—	1.01 99.0%
ТБ 1.5	1.07 93.5%	—	1.01 99.0%
ТБ 1.75	—	—	1.02 98.0%
ТБ 2.0	—	—	1.04 96.2%
ТБ 2.25	—	—	1.13 88.5%
ТБ 2.5	1.25 80.0%	—	—
ТБ 3.5	1.62 61.7%	—	—
ТБ 4.0	—	2.05 48.8%	—
ТБ 4.5	2.38 42.0%	—	—
ТБ 5.5	3.85 26.0%	—	—
ТМ 1.5	8.00 12.5%	—	—
ТМ 2.5	3.85 26.0%	—	—
ТМ 3.5	2.25 44.4%	—	—
ТМ 4.0	—	1.85 54.1%	—
ТМ 4.5	1.57 63.7%	—	—
ТМ 5.5	1.25 80.0%	—	—

Match center

Bayern München

Founded 1900

VfB Stuttgart

Founded 1893

Match center

Bayern München

W W W D W

11.04 16:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayern München 5:0 FC St. Pauli

04.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayern München 3:2 Frayburg

21.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayern München 4:0 Union Berlin

14.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayern München 1:1 Bayer Leverkusen

06.03 19:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayern München 4:1 Borussia Mönchengladbach

4 Wins

1 Draws

0 Losses

3.4 Scored

0.8 Conceded

13 Points

VfB Stuttgart

W L W W D

12.04 15:30 UTC Bundesliga

VfB Stuttgart 4:0 Hamburger SV

04.04 16:30 UTC Bundesliga

VfB Stuttgart 0:2 Borussia Dortmund

22.03 18:30 UTC Bundesliga

VfB Stuttgart 5:2 FC Augsburg

15.03 18:30 UTC Bundesliga

VfB Stuttgart 1:0 RB Leipzig

07.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

VfB Stuttgart 2:2 Maynts

3 Wins

1 Draws

1 Losses

2.4 Scored

1.2 Conceded

10 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyBayern München - VfB Stuttgart

Bayern München

2 matches total

VfB Stuttgart

Bayern München: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

VfB Stuttgart: 2 (100%)

Biggest win Bavariya 5:0 (06.12 14:30 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 5 goals (5:0, 06.12 14:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0

0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

06.12 14:30 UTC

Bundesliga

Bavariya

5:0

VfB Stuttgart

19.10 16:30 UTC

Bundesliga

Bavariya

4:0

VfB Stuttgart

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.