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Bundesliga
Bundesliga Germany
11.04.2026 13:30 UTC Match prediction
11.04.2026 13:30 UTC
Finished

Bundesliga

Germany

Borussia Dortmund - Bayer Leverkusen

Germany Football
Stadium Signal Iduna Park
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund
0 : 1
Finished
Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Borussia Dortmund — 43%

1 · Borussia Dortmund43.0%
X · draw24.5%
2 · Bayer Leverkusen32.6%

Model estimate: win Borussia Dortmund 43.0%, draw 24.5%, win Bayer Leverkusen 32.6%. Model favourite — Borussia Dortmund.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Borussia Dortmund - Bayer Leverkusen April 11, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Borussia Dortmund.

Strongest: Borussia Dortmund - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.00 / X 3.86 / 2 3.43
  • 1X2 market: Borussia Dortmund 47.6% / X 24.7% / Bayer Leverkusen 27.8%
  • Glicko: Borussia Dortmund 43.0% / X 24.5% / Bayer Leverkusen 32.6%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 43.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.1%
1 47.6%
X 24.7%
2 27.8%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.0%
Over 2.5 62.9%
Under 2.5 37.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 45.9%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 11.04.2026 13:30 UTC
Stadium Signal Iduna Park (Dortmund)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Borussia Dortmund 43%
💹 Market Borussia Dortmund 4755%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Borussia Dortmund - Bayer Leverkusen

Borussia Dortmund: Win 2.00 Borussia Dortmund: Draw 3.90 Bayer Leverkusen Win: 3.40 Obschiy total golov bolshe 3.5: 2.30 Obschiy total golov menshe 3.5: 1.62 Individualnyy total golov Borussia Dortmund bolshe 1.5: 1.73 Individualnyy total golov Borussia Dortmund menshe 1.5:…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:1
Events 13
Statistics 24
Lineups 40
min Event Player Team
5' 5' Yellow Card | Ramy Bensebaini E. Bitshiabu Borussia Dortmund
42' 42' Normal Goal | Robert Andrich Bayer Leverkusen
45' 45' Yellow Card | Serhou Guirassy Tomás Pérez Borussia Dortmund
54' 54' Substitution 1 | Christian Kofane | assist/sub out: Patrik Schick Bayer Leverkusen
59' 59' Substitution 1 | Daniel Svensson | assist/sub out: Maximilian Beier Borussia Dortmund
63' 63' Yellow Card | Maximilian Beier Borussia Dortmund
64' 64' Substitution 2 | Marcel Sabitzer | assist/sub out: Carney Chukwuemeka A. Murphy Borussia Dortmund
65' 65' Substitution 3 | Fábio Silva | assist/sub out: Samuele Inacio Borussia Dortmund
Metric Borussia Dortmund Bayer Leverkusen SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.3 0.63 final
Zablokirovannye udary 2 3 final
Shots off target 11 4 final
Shots on target 1 4 final
Udary vsego 14 11 final
Fouls soversheno 5 6 final
Zheltye kartochki 3 0 final
Offsides 2 1 final
Borussia Dortmund #1 G. Kobel, #3 Waldemar Anton, #4 Nico Schlotterbeck, #5 Ramy Bensebaini, #7 J. Bellingham, #9 S. Guirassy, #10 J. Brandt, #20 Marcel Sabitzer, #21 Fábio Silva, #24 Daniel Svensson, #26 Julian Ryerson
Bayer Leverkusen #1 M. Flekken, #5 L. Badé, #8 R. Andrich, #12 E. Tapsoba, #20 Álex Grimaldo, #23 N. Tella, #24 Aleix García, #25 Exequiel Palacios, #30 Ibrahim Maza, #35 Christian Kofane, #42 M. Culbreath
Player Team Metric SStats
Aleix García Bayer Leverkusen Dribling popytki 3
Aleix García Bayer Leverkusen Edinoborstva vyigrano 3
Aleix García Bayer Leverkusen Fouls soversheno 1
Aleix García Bayer Leverkusen Seyvy 0
Aleix García Bayer Leverkusen football.player.minutes_played 89
Aleix García Bayer Leverkusen Klyuchevye pasy 91
Aleix García Bayer Leverkusen Reyting (staryy) 7.5
Aleix García Bayer Leverkusen Shots on target 1
Aleix García Bayer Leverkusen Bloki 2
Aleix García Bayer Leverkusen Otbory vsego 87
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Borussia Dortmund 48.4% 43.0% market and model agree
Draw 24.4% 24.5% draw risk
Bayer Leverkusen 27.3% 32.6%
xG - 1.58 : 1.34
Total 2.5 Over 43.2% - Under 56.9%
Model check - - Difference 0.05
Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.05

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 43.0% / 24.5% / 32.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,705 / 1,598 Borussia Dortmund / Bayer Leverkusen
RD 80 / 79 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.43 market consensus · no value · model 32.6%
X 3.86 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.00 market consensus · no value · model 43.0%
Double chance
X2 1.80 market consensus · no value · model 57.0%
12 1.24 market consensus · no value · model 75.5%
1X 1.30 market consensus · no value · model 67.4%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.85 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.45 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.30 market consensus · line only
2 +1 6.00 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.50 market consensus · no value · model 43.2%
Under 2.5 2.54 market consensus · value +44.4% · model 56.9%
Both teams to score
No 2.62 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.44 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
1.95 51.3% 2.02 49.5% 2.06 48.5% 2.00 50.0% 2.02 49.5% 1.95 51.3%
X 3.85 26.0% 3.90 25.6% 3.96 25.3% 3.90 25.6% 4.00 25.0% 3.75 26.7%
3.35 29.9% 3.45 29.0% 3.60 27.8% 3.40 29.4% 3.55 28.2% 3.40 29.4%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 2.60 38.5% 2.69 37.2% 2.62 38.2% 2.62 38.2% 2.55 39.2% 2.80 35.7% 2.55 39.2% 2.58 38.8% 2.70 37.0%
yes 1.45 69.0% 1.47 68.0% 1.44 69.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.47 68.0% 1.40 71.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.42 70.4%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
draw_away 1.80 55.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.73 57.8% 1.75 57.1%
home_away 1.20 83.3% 1.29 77.5% 1.25 80.0% 1.26 79.4% 1.22 82.0% 1.22 82.0%
home_draw 1.30 76.9% 1.34 74.6% 1.30 76.9% 1.33 75.2% 1.30 76.9% 1.30 76.9%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 — — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.5 1.15 87.0% — 1.10 90.9%
Over 1.75 — — 1.13 88.5%
Over 2.0 — — 1.17 85.5%
Over 2.25 — — 1.33 75.2%
Over 2.5 1.50 66.7% — —
Over 3.0 — 1.81 55.3% —
Over 3.5 2.25 44.4% — —
Over 4.5 3.80 26.3% — —
Over 5.5 7.00 14.3% — —
Under 1.5 5.25 19.1% — —
Under 2.5 2.55 39.2% — —
Under 3.0 — 2.09 47.9% —
Under 3.5 1.62 61.7% — —
Under 4.5 1.25 80.0% — —
Under 5.5 1.09 91.7% — —
Match center
Borussia Dortmund
Founded 1909
Bayer Leverkusen
Founded 1904
Match center
Borussia Dortmund
FN F. Nmecha Knee Injury
EC E. Can Knee Injury
Bayer Leverkusen
MT M. Terrier Hamstring Injury
JQ J. Quansah Thigh Injury
Borussia Dortmund Founded: 1909
Bayer Leverkusen Founded: 1904
Match center
Borussia Dortmund
W W W W L
04.04 16:30 UTC Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund 2:0 VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart
21.03 17:30 UTC Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund 3:2 Hamburger SVHamburger SV
14.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund 2:0 FC AugsburgFC Augsburg
07.03 17:30 UTC Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund 2:1 1. FC Köln1. FC Köln
28.02 17:30 UTC Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund 2:3 BavariyaBavariya
4 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
2.2 Scored
1.2 Conceded
12 Points
Bayer Leverkusen
W D D D W
04.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen 6:3 VfL WolfsburgVfL Wolfsburg
21.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen 3:3 1. FC Heidenheim1. FC Heidenheim
14.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen 1:1 BavariyaBavariya
07.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen 3:3 FrayburgFrayburg
04.03 19:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen 1:0 Hamburger SVHamburger SV
2 Wins
3 Draws
0 Losses
2.8 Scored
2.0 Conceded
9 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyBorussia Dortmund - Bayer Leverkusen

Borussia Dortmund
2 matches total
Bayer Leverkusen
Borussia Dortmund: 2 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Bayer Leverkusen: 0 (0%)
Biggest win Borussia Dortmund 4:2 (11.05 13:30 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 6 goals (4:2, 11.05 13:30 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

6 Goals scored 3
3 Goals conceded 6

Match history

29.11 17:30 UTC Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund
2:1
Bayer Leverkusen
11.05 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund
4:2
Bayer Leverkusen
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.