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Bundesliga Germany

28.02.2026 17:30 UTC Match prediction

28.02.2026 17:30 UTC

Finished

Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund - Bayern München

Germany Football

Borussia Dortmund

2 : 3

Finished

Bayern München

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Borussia Dortmund - Bayern München February 28, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Bayern München.

Line favourite market consensus: Bayern München. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 4.35 / X 4.41 / 2 1.68
1X2 market: Borussia Dortmund 21.9% / X 21.6% / Bayern München 56.5%
Total 2.5: over probability 69.1%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.2%

1 21.9%

X 21.6%

2 56.6%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.3%

Over 2.5 69.2%

Under 2.5 30.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 28.02.2026 17:30 UTC

Match center

Borussia Dortmund - Bayern München

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.69 market consensus · line only

X 4.41 market consensus · line only

1 4.36 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 1.22 market consensus · line only

12 1.21 market consensus · line only

1X 2.21 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.21 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.07 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 1.66 market consensus · line only

2 +1 2.11 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.36 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 3.05 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 2.83 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.40 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	4.50 22.2%
X	4.45 22.5%
	1.70 58.8%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	4.00 25.0%	4.25 23.5%	4.56 21.9%	4.20 23.8%	4.20 23.8%	4.45 22.5%
X	4.40 22.7%	4.60 21.7%	4.56 21.9%	4.00 25.0%	4.50 22.2%	4.55 22.0%
	1.68 59.5%	1.70 58.8%	1.73 57.8%	1.67 59.9%	1.67 59.9%	1.72 58.1%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	Marathonbet	Pinnacle
no	2.88 34.7%	2.97 33.7%	2.66 37.6%	2.75 36.4%	2.75 36.4%	2.80 35.7%	3.00 33.3%	2.83 35.3%	2.98 33.6%
yes	1.38 72.5%	1.40 71.4%	1.43 69.9%	1.40 71.4%	1.40 71.4%	1.40 71.4%	1.36 73.5%	1.43 69.9%	1.43 69.9%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.22 82.0%	1.24 80.7%	1.22 82.0%	1.22 82.0%	1.24 80.7%	1.17 85.5%
home_away	1.17 85.5%	1.24 80.7%	1.22 82.0%	1.18 84.8%	1.21 82.6%	1.17 85.5%
home_draw	2.15 46.5%	2.23 44.8%	2.15 46.5%	2.15 46.5%	2.20 45.5%	2.20 45.5%

Match center

Borussia Dortmund

D W W W W

21.02 17:30 UTC Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund 2:2 RB Leipzig

13.02 19:30 UTC Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund 4:0 Maynts

07.02 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund 2:1 VfL Wolfsburg

01.02 16:30 UTC Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund 3:2 1. FC Heidenheim

24.01 17:30 UTC Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund 3:0 Union Berlin

4 Wins

1 Draws

0 Losses

2.8 Scored

1.0 Conceded

13 Points

Bayern München

W W W D L

21.02 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayern München 3:2 Eintracht Frankfurt

14.02 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayern München 3:0 Werder Bremen

08.02 16:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayern München 5:1 1899 Hoffenheim

31.01 17:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayern München 2:2 Hamburger SV

24.01 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayern München 1:2 FC Augsburg

3 Wins

1 Draws

1 Losses

2.8 Scored

1.4 Conceded

10 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyBorussia Dortmund - Bayern München

Borussia Dortmund

2 matches total

Bayern München

Borussia Dortmund: 0 (0%)

Draws:1 (50%)

Bayern München: 1 (50%)

Biggest win Bavariya 1:2 (18.10 16:30 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 4 goals (2:2, 12.04 16:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 2:2 (12.04 16:30 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

3 Goals scored 4

4 Goals conceded 3

Match history

18.10 16:30 UTC

Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund

1:2

Bavariya

12.04 16:30 UTC

Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund

2:2

Bavariya