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Bundesliga Germany

21.03.2026 17:30 UTC Match prediction

21.03.2026 17:30 UTC

Finished

Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund - Hamburger SV

Germany Football

Borussia Dortmund

3 : 2

Finished

Hamburger SV

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Borussia Dortmund - Hamburger SV March 21, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Borussia Dortmund.

Line favourite market consensus: Borussia Dortmund. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.39 / X 5.03 / 2 7.47
1X2 market: Borussia Dortmund 68.4% / X 18.9% / Hamburger SV 12.7%
Total 2.5: over probability 61.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.2%

1 68.4%

X 18.9%

2 12.7%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.5%

Over 2.5 61.4%

Under 2.5 38.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 21.03.2026 17:30 UTC

Match center

Borussia Dortmund - Hamburger SV

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 7.45 market consensus · line only

X 5.04 market consensus · line only

1 1.39 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 2.98 market consensus · line only

12 1.17 market consensus · line only

1X 1.10 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 3.02 market consensus · line only

2 -1 2.34 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 6.30 market consensus · line only

1 -0.5 1.37 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.53 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 2.43 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 2.01 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.76 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	1.42 70.4%
X	5.12 19.5%
	7.21 13.9%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	1.39 71.9%	1.39 71.9%	1.43 69.9%	1.40 71.4%	1.38 72.5%	1.44 69.4%
X	4.80 20.8%	5.20 19.2%	5.25 19.1%	4.60 21.7%	5.00 20.0%	5.20 19.2%
	7.00 14.3%	7.60 13.2%	8.05 12.4%	6.50 15.4%	7.50 13.3%	7.30 13.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet
no	2.00 50.0%	2.05 48.8%	1.98 50.5%	2.00 50.0%	1.95 51.3%	2.00 50.0%	2.00 50.0%	2.00 50.0%	1.96 51.0%
yes	1.75 57.1%	1.78 56.2%	1.75 57.1%	1.75 57.1%	1.80 55.6%	1.75 57.1%	1.75 57.1%	1.75 57.1%	1.75 57.1%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	2.88 34.7%	3.08 32.5%	2.88 34.7%	2.75 36.4%	2.95 33.9%	3.00 33.3%
home_away	1.13 88.5%	1.20 83.3%	1.18 84.8%	1.17 85.5%	1.17 85.5%	1.14 87.7%
home_draw	1.09 91.7%	1.10 90.9%	1.11 90.1%	1.10 90.9%	1.12 89.3%	1.06 94.3%

Match center

Borussia Dortmund

W W L D W

14.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund 2:0 FC Augsburg

07.03 17:30 UTC Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund 2:1 1. FC Köln

28.02 17:30 UTC Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund 2:3 Bavariya

21.02 17:30 UTC Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund 2:2 RB Leipzig

13.02 19:30 UTC Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund 4:0 Maynts

3 Wins

1 Draws

1 Losses

2.4 Scored

1.2 Conceded

10 Points

Hamburger SV

D W L L D

14.03 17:30 UTC Bundesliga

Hamburger SV 1:1 1. FC Köln

07.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Hamburger SV 2:1 VfL Wolfsburg

04.03 19:30 UTC Bundesliga

Hamburger SV 0:1 Bayer Leverkusen

01.03 18:30 UTC Bundesliga

Hamburger SV 1:2 RB Leipzig

20.02 19:30 UTC Bundesliga

Hamburger SV 1:1 Maynts

1 Wins

2 Draws

2 Losses

1.0 Scored

1.2 Conceded

5 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyBorussia Dortmund - Hamburger SV

Borussia Dortmund

1 matches total

Hamburger SV

Borussia Dortmund: 0 (0%)

Draws:1 (100%)

Hamburger SV: 0 (0%)

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 2 goals (1:1, 08.11 14:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (08.11 14:30 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 1

1 Goals conceded 1

Match history

08.11 14:30 UTC

Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund

1:1

Hamburger SV