Bundesliga
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)
1 Borussia Dortmund — 65%
Model estimate: win Borussia Dortmund 65.1%, draw 20.4%, win SC Freiburg 14.5%. Model favourite — Borussia Dortmund.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Borussia Dortmund.
For reference
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Model consensus
Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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Borussia Dortmund: Win 1.40 Borussia Dortmund: Draw 5.00 SC Freiburg Win: 7.00 Obschiy total golov bolshe 3.5: 2.30 Obschiy total golov menshe 3.5: 1.62 Individualnyy total golov Borussia Dortmund bolshe 2.5: 2.25 Individualnyy total golov Borussia Dortmund menshe 2.5: 1.57…
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.42 70.4% | 1.46 68.5% | 1.40 71.4% | 1.40 71.4% | 1.42 70.4% | 1.40 71.4% | |
| X | 4.70 21.3% | 5.08 19.7% | 4.50 22.2% | 5.00 20.0% | 4.90 20.4% | 4.75 21.1% |
| 6.60 15.2% | 7.41 13.5% | 6.50 15.4% | 7.00 14.3% | 6.90 14.5% | 7.50 13.3% |
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor | Marathonbet | Unibet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 2.05 48.8% | 2.02 49.5% | 2.05 48.8% | 2.00 50.0% | 2.00 50.0% | 2.05 48.8% | 2.00 50.0% | 2.00 50.0% | 2.15 46.5% |
| yes | 1.73 57.8% | 1.72 58.1% | 1.73 57.8% | 1.75 57.1% | 1.75 57.1% | 1.73 57.8% | 1.70 58.8% | 1.72 58.1% | 1.64 61.0% |
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 2.75 36.4% | 2.92 34.3% | 2.80 35.7% | 2.75 36.4% | 2.95 33.9% | 2.80 35.7% |
| home_away | 1.14 87.7% | 1.21 82.6% | 1.18 84.8% | 1.18 84.8% | 1.17 85.5% | 1.14 87.7% |
| home_draw | 1.10 90.9% | 1.12 89.3% | 1.11 90.1% | 1.10 90.9% | 1.12 89.3% | 1.07 93.5% |
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | — | 1.02 98.0% |
| Over 1.0 | — | 1.02 98.0% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.17 85.5% | 1.13 88.5% |
| Over 1.75 | — | 1.15 87.0% |
| Over 2.0 | — | 1.19 84.0% |
| Over 2.25 | — | 1.35 74.1% |
| Over 2.5 | 1.55 64.5% | 1.51 66.2% |
| Over 2.75 | — | 1.64 61.0% |
| Over 3.5 | 2.35 42.6% | — |
| Over 4.5 | 4.20 23.8% | — |
| Over 5.5 | 8.00 12.5% | — |
| Under 1.5 | 5.00 20.0% | — |
| Under 2.5 | 2.40 41.7% | — |
| Under 3.5 | 1.57 63.7% | — |
| Under 4.5 | 1.22 82.0% | — |
| Under 5.5 | 1.07 93.5% | — |
Borussia Dortmund
SC Freiburg
Borussia Dortmund
1899 Hoffenheim
Bayer Leverkusen
VfB Stuttgart
Hamburger SV
FC Augsburg
SC Freiburg
1. FC Heidenheim
Maynts
Bavariya
FC St. Pauli
Union Berlin
Full head-to-head historyBorussia Dortmund - SC Freiburg
Bundesliga
Bundesliga
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
The Borussia Dortmund - SC Freiburg breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
