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Bundesliga
Bundesliga Germany
19.04.2026 17:30 UTC Match prediction
19.04.2026 17:30 UTC
Finished

Bundesliga

Germany

Borussia Monchengladbach - FSV Mainz 05

Germany Football
Stadium Borussiya Park
Borussia Monchengladbach
Borussia Monchengladbach
1 : 1
Finished
FSV Mainz 05
FSV Mainz 05
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 FSV Mainz 05 — 37%

1 · Borussia Monchengladbach35.5%
X · draw27.5%
2 · FSV Mainz 0537.0%

Model estimate: win Borussia Monchengladbach 35.5%, draw 27.5%, win FSV Mainz 05 37.0%. Model favourite — FSV Mainz 05.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Borussia Monchengladbach - FSV Mainz 05 April 19, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Borussia Monchengladbach.

Line favourite market consensus: Borussia Monchengladbach. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.28 / X 3.51 / 2 3.04
  • 1X2 market: Borussia Monchengladbach 41.7% / X 27.1% / FSV Mainz 05 31.3%
  • Glicko: Borussia Monchengladbach 35.5% / X 27.5% / FSV Mainz 05 37.0%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 40.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.2%
1 41.7%
X 27.1%
2 31.3%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.7%
Over 2.5 52.5%
Under 2.5 47.5%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 2/4
Confidence 38.3%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:1

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center
Start 19.04.2026 17:30 UTC
Stadium Borussiya Park (Menkhengladbakh)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model FSV Mainz 05 37%
💹 Market Borussia Monchengladbach 4166%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Borussia Monchengladbach - FSV Mainz 05

Borussia Mönchengladbach: Win 2.35 Borussia Mönchengladbach: Draw 3.50 FSV Mainz 05 Win: 2.90 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.91 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.91 Individualnyy total golov Borussia Mönchengladbach bolshe 1.5: 2.20 Individualnyy total golov Borussia Mön…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:1
Events 3
Statistics 24
Lineups 39
min Event Player Team
7' 7' Normal Goal | Joseph Scally | assist/sub out: Hugo Bolin Borussia Mönchengladbach
21' 21' Yellow Card | Dominik Kohr P. Dorgu FSV Mainz 05
22' 22' Yellow Card | Anthony Caci A. Plea FSV Mainz 05
Metric Borussia Monchengladbach FSV Mainz 05 SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.62 2.32 final
Zablokirovannye udary 3 5 final
Shots off target 2 5 final
Shots on target 4 7 final
Udary vsego 9 17 final
Fouls soversheno 12 8 final
Zheltye kartochki 5 2 final
Offsides 0 2 final
Borussia Monchengladbach #4 K. Diks, #6 Y. Engelhardt, #7 K. Stöger, #15 H. Tabaković, #16 P. Sander, #17 J. Castrop, #27 R. Reitz, #29 J. Scally, #30 N. Elvedi, #33 M. Nicolas, #38 H. Bolin
FSV Mainz 05 #4 S. Posch, #6 Kaishu Sano, #8 P. Nebel, #10 Nadiem Amiri, #19 A. Caci, #20 P. Tietz, #21 D. da Costa, #22 N. Veratschnig, #23 S. Becker, #31 D. Kohr, #33 D. Batz
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Caci FSV Mainz 05 football.player.assists 0
A. Caci FSV Mainz 05 Dribling popytki 6
A. Caci FSV Mainz 05 Dribling uspeshno 2
A. Caci FSV Mainz 05 Edinoborstva vyigrano 9
A. Caci FSV Mainz 05 Fouls na igroke 2
A. Caci FSV Mainz 05 Seyvy 0
A. Caci FSV Mainz 05 football.player.minutes_played 76
A. Caci FSV Mainz 05 Tochnost pasov % 3
A. Caci FSV Mainz 05 Klyuchevye pasy 50
A. Caci FSV Mainz 05 Reyting (staryy) 7.6
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Borussia Monchengladbach 40.2% 35.5% market favourite
Draw 26.8% 27.5% draw risk
FSV Mainz 05 33.0% 37.0% Glicko contrarian
xG - 1.19 : 1.23
Total 2.5 Over 40.9% - Under 59.1%
Model check - - Difference 0.05
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.05

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 35.5% / 27.5% / 37.0% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,447 / 1,503 Borussia Monchengladbach / FSV Mainz 05
RD 76 / 75 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.04 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 37.0%
X 3.51 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.28 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 35.5%
Double chance
X2 1.62 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 64.6%
12 1.29 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 72.5%
1X 1.37 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 63.0%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.65 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.30 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.99 market consensus · line only
2 +1 5.22 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.82 market consensus · no value · model 40.9%
Under 2.5 2.01 market consensus · value +18.7% · model 59.1%
Both teams to score
No 2.16 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.65 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
2.16 46.3% 2.42 41.3% 2.33 42.9% 2.25 44.4% 2.25 44.4% 2.25 44.4%
X 3.55 28.2% 3.70 27.0% 3.68 27.2% 3.30 30.3% 3.60 27.8% 3.50 28.6%
3.10 32.3% 2.79 35.8% 3.19 31.4% 2.90 34.5% 3.00 33.3% 3.10 32.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 2.15 46.5% 2.13 47.0% 2.17 46.1% 2.15 46.5% 2.10 47.6% 2.15 46.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.15 46.5% 2.14 46.7%
yes 1.65 60.6% 1.72 58.1% 1.63 61.4% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.65 60.6% 1.60 62.5% 1.62 61.7% 1.63 61.4%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.65 60.6% 1.68 59.5% 1.57 63.7% 1.62 61.7% 1.67 59.9% 1.57 63.7%
home_away 1.25 80.0% 1.33 75.2% 1.30 76.9% 1.28 78.1% 1.29 77.5% 1.25 80.0%
home_draw 1.36 73.5% 1.40 71.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.36 73.5% 1.39 71.9% 1.33 75.2%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.05 95.2% — 1.02 98.0%
Over 0.75 — — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.25 — — 1.12 89.3%
Over 1.5 1.25 80.0% — 1.23 81.3%
Over 1.75 — — 1.28 78.1%
Over 2.5 1.80 55.6% 1.90 52.6% —
Over 3.5 3.00 33.3% — —
Over 4.5 5.75 17.4% — —
Under 0.5 9.50 10.5% — —
Under 1.5 3.75 26.7% — —
Under 2.5 2.00 50.0% 2.00 50.0% —
Under 3.5 1.38 72.5% — —
Under 4.5 1.13 88.5% — —
Match center
Borussia Monchengladbach
Founded 1900
FSV Mainz 05
Founded 1905
Match center
Borussia Monchengladbach
L D D W L
11.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Borussia Monchengladbach 0:1 RB LeipzigRB Leipzig
04.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Borussia Monchengladbach 2:2 1. FC Heidenheim1. FC Heidenheim
21.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga
Borussia Monchengladbach 3:3 1. FC Köln1. FC Köln
13.03 19:30 UTC Bundesliga
Borussia Monchengladbach 2:0 FC St. PauliFC St. Pauli
06.03 19:30 UTC Bundesliga
Borussia Monchengladbach 1:4 BavariyaBavariya
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
1.6 Scored
2.0 Conceded
5 Points
FSV Mainz 05
L W W W D
12.04 17:30 UTC Bundesliga
FSV Mainz 05 0:1 FrayburgFrayburg
04.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
FSV Mainz 05 2:1 1899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim
22.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga
FSV Mainz 05 2:1 Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt
15.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga
FSV Mainz 05 2:0 Werder BremenWerder Bremen
07.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga
FSV Mainz 05 2:2 VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.6 Scored
1.0 Conceded
10 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyBorussia Monchengladbach - FSV Mainz 05

Borussia Monchengladbach
2 matches total
FSV Mainz 05
Borussia Monchengladbach: 0 (0%)
Draws:1 (50%)
FSV Mainz 05: 1 (50%)
Biggest win Borussia Mönchengladbach 1:0 (05.12 19:30 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 2 goals (1:1, 25.10 18:30 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (25.10 18:30 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

05.12 19:30 UTC Bundesliga
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1:0
Maynts
25.10 18:30 UTC Bundesliga
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1:1
Maynts
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.