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Bundesliga
Bundesliga Germany
10.04.2026 18:30 UTC Match prediction
10.04.2026 18:30 UTC
Finished

Bundesliga

Germany

FC Augsburg - 1899 Hoffenheim

Germany Football
Stadium WWK Arena
Capacity 30 662
FC Augsburg
FC Augsburg
2 : 2
Finished
1899 Hoffenheim
1899 Hoffenheim
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 1899 Hoffenheim — 51%

1 · FC Augsburg23.7%
X · draw25.1%
2 · 1899 Hoffenheim51.2%

Model estimate: win FC Augsburg 23.7%, draw 25.1%, win 1899 Hoffenheim 51.2%. Model favourite — 1899 Hoffenheim.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction FC Augsburg - 1899 Hoffenheim April 10, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like 1899 Hoffenheim.

Strongest: 1899 Hoffenheim - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.40 / X 3.76 / 2 2.04
  • 1X2 market: FC Augsburg 28.1% / X 25.4% / 1899 Hoffenheim 46.6%
  • Glicko: FC Augsburg 23.7% / X 25.1% / 1899 Hoffenheim 51.2%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 32.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.0%
1 28.0%
X 25.3%
2 46.7%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.0%
Over 2.5 60.7%
Under 2.5 39.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 48.9%
Total Under 2.5
Score 0:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 10.04.2026 18:30 UTC
Stadium WWK Arena (Augsburg)
Capacity 30,662

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model 1899 Hoffenheim 51%
💹 Market 1899 Hoffenheim 4658%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

FC Augsburg - 1899 Hoffenheim

FC Augsburg: Win 3.50 FC Augsburg: Draw 3.80 1899 Hoffenheim Win: 2.00 Obschiy total golov bolshe 3.5: 2.30 Obschiy total golov menshe 3.5: 1.62 Individualnyy total golov FC Augsburg bolshe 1.5: 2.38 Individualnyy total golov FC Augsburg menshe 1.5: 1.53 Individualnyy tota…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 2:2
Events 22
Statistics 24
Lineups 38
min Event Player Team
11' 11' Normal Goal | A. Claude-Maurice Daria Khomutsianskaya FC Augsburg
14' 14' Normal Goal | M. Gregoritsch FC Augsburg
16' 16' Yellow Card | D. Giannoulis F. Rønnow FC Augsburg
24' 24' Yellow Card | C. Zesiger FC Augsburg
35' 35' Normal Goal 1899 Hoffenheim
42' 42' Normal Goal | B. Toure | assist/sub out: F. Asllani 1899 Hoffenheim
54' 54' Yellow Card | G. Prömel 1899 Hoffenheim
59' 59' Yellow Card | Arthur Chaves FC Augsburg
Metric FC Augsburg 1899 Hoffenheim SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.93 0.99 final
Zablokirovannye udary 2 5 final
Shots off target 7 4 final
Shots on target 8 4 final
Udary vsego 17 13 final
Fouls soversheno 6 18 final
Zheltye kartochki 5 3 final
Offsides 2 1 final
FC Augsburg #1 O. Baumann, #2 R. Hranáč, #5 O. Kabak, #6 G. Prömel, #7 L. Avdullahu, #11 F. Asllani, #19 T. Lemperle, #21 A. Hajdari, #27 Andrej Kramarić, #29 B. Touré, #34 V. Coufal
1899 Hoffenheim #1 F. Dahmen, #6 J. Gouweleeuw, #13 D. Giannoulis, #16 C. Zesiger, #19 R. Fellhauer, #20 A. Claude-Maurice, #27 M. Wolf, #30 A. Kade, #32 F. Rieder, #34 Arthur Chaves, #38 M. Gregoritsch
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Claude-Maurice 1899 Hoffenheim Dribling popytki 7
A. Claude-Maurice 1899 Hoffenheim Dribling uspeshno 5
A. Claude-Maurice 1899 Hoffenheim Edinoborstva vsego 1
A. Claude-Maurice 1899 Hoffenheim Edinoborstva vyigrano 16
A. Claude-Maurice 1899 Hoffenheim Fouls soversheno 1
A. Claude-Maurice 1899 Hoffenheim Fouls na igroke 3
A. Claude-Maurice 1899 Hoffenheim football.player.goals 1
A. Claude-Maurice 1899 Hoffenheim Seyvy 0
A. Claude-Maurice 1899 Hoffenheim football.player.minutes_played 89
A. Claude-Maurice 1899 Hoffenheim Klyuchevye pasy 20
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
FC Augsburg 28.0% 23.7%
Draw 25.4% 25.1% draw risk
1899 Hoffenheim 46.7% 51.2% market and model agree
xG - 0.99 : 1.59
Total 2.5 Over 32.8% - Under 67.2%
Model check - - Difference 0.05
Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.05

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 23.7% / 25.1% / 51.2% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,460 / 1,577 FC Augsburg / 1899 Hoffenheim
RD 76 / 78 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.04 market consensus · weak value +4.4% · model 51.2%
X 3.76 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 3.40 market consensus · no value · model 23.7%
Double chance
X2 1.31 market consensus · no value · model 76.3%
12 1.26 market consensus · no value · model 74.9%
1X 1.78 market consensus · no value · model 48.8%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.33 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.11 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.02 market consensus · line only
2 +1 2.84 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.57 market consensus · no value · model 32.8%
Under 2.5 2.42 market consensus · weak value +62.7% · model 67.2%
Both teams to score
No 2.52 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.49 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
3.30 30.3% 3.50 28.6% 3.52 28.4% 3.50 28.6% 3.45 29.0% 3.50 28.6%
X 3.70 27.0% 3.75 26.7% 3.88 25.8% 3.80 26.3% 3.70 27.0% 3.75 26.7%
2.00 50.0% 2.04 49.0% 2.11 47.4% 2.00 50.0% 2.05 48.8% 2.05 48.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 2.55 39.2% 2.70 37.0% 2.48 40.3% 2.50 40.0% 2.50 40.0% 2.50 40.0% 2.55 39.2% 2.44 41.0% 2.48 40.3%
yes 1.48 67.6% 1.47 68.0% 1.49 67.1% 1.50 66.7% 1.50 66.7% 1.50 66.7% 1.45 69.0% 1.49 67.1% 1.48 67.6%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
draw_away 1.30 76.9% 1.35 74.1% 1.30 76.9% 1.34 74.6% 1.25 80.0% 1.30 76.9%
home_away 1.22 82.0% 1.30 76.9% 1.25 80.0% 1.27 78.7% 1.22 82.0% 1.22 82.0%
home_draw 1.75 57.1% 1.81 55.3% 1.73 57.8% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.73 57.8%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.04 96.2% — 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.0 — — 1.04 96.2%
Over 1.25 — — 1.06 94.3%
Over 1.5 1.18 84.8% — 1.14 87.7%
Over 2.5 1.55 64.5% — —
Over 3.0 — 1.90 52.6% —
Over 3.5 2.35 42.6% — —
Over 4.5 4.20 23.8% — —
Over 5.5 7.50 13.3% — —
Under 0.5 10.00 10.0% — —
Under 1.5 4.75 21.1% — —
Under 2.5 2.40 41.7% — —
Under 3.0 — 2.00 50.0% —
Under 3.5 1.57 63.7% — —
Under 4.5 1.22 82.0% — —
Under 5.5 1.08 92.6% — —
Match center
FC Augsburg
Founded 1907
1899 Hoffenheim
Founded 1899
Match center
FC Augsburg
KJ K. Jakić Injury
KS K. Schlotterbeck Yellow Cards
1899 Hoffenheim
KM K. Machida Knee Injury
WB W. Burger Yellow Cards
FC Augsburg Founded: 1907
1899 Hoffenheim Founded: 1899
Match center
FC Augsburg
D L L L W
04.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
FC Augsburg 1:1 Hamburger SVHamburger SV
22.03 18:30 UTC Bundesliga
FC Augsburg 2:5 VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart
14.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga
FC Augsburg 0:2 Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
07.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga
FC Augsburg 1:2 RB LeipzigRB Leipzig
27.02 19:30 UTC Bundesliga
FC Augsburg 2:0 1. FC Köln1. FC Köln
1 Wins
1 Draws
3 Losses
1.2 Scored
2.0 Conceded
4 Points
1899 Hoffenheim
L L D W L
04.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
1899 Hoffenheim 1:2 MayntsMaynts
20.03 19:30 UTC Bundesliga
1899 Hoffenheim 0:5 RB LeipzigRB Leipzig
14.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga
1899 Hoffenheim 1:1 VfL WolfsburgVfL Wolfsburg
07.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga
1899 Hoffenheim 4:2 1. FC Heidenheim1. FC Heidenheim
28.02 14:30 UTC Bundesliga
1899 Hoffenheim 0:1 FC St. PauliFC St. Pauli
1 Wins
1 Draws
3 Losses
1.2 Scored
2.2 Conceded
4 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyFC Augsburg - 1899 Hoffenheim

FC Augsburg
1 matches total
1899 Hoffenheim
FC Augsburg: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
1899 Hoffenheim: 1 (100%)
Biggest win 1899 Hoffenheim 0:3 (29.11 14:30 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 3 goals (0:3, 29.11 14:30 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 3
3 Goals conceded 0

Match history

29.11 14:30 UTC Bundesliga
FC Augsburg
0:3
1899 Hoffenheim
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.