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Bundesliga Germany

17.04.2026 18:30 UTC Match prediction Prediction

17.04.2026 18:30 UTC

Finished

Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli - 1. FC Köln

Germany Football

Stadium Millerntor-Stadion

Capacity 29 546

FC St. Pauli

1 : 1

Finished

1. FC Köln

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 1. FC Köln — 44%

1 · FC St. Pauli28.9%

X · draw27.5%

2 · 1. FC Köln43.6%

Model estimate: win FC St. Pauli 28.9%, draw 27.5%, win 1. FC Köln 43.6%. Model favourite — 1. FC Köln.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction FC St. Pauli - 1. FC Köln April 17, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like 1. FC Köln.

Strongest: 1. FC Köln - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.84 / X 3.29 / 2 2.52
1X2 market: FC St. Pauli 33.4% / X 28.8% / 1. FC Köln 37.8%
Glicko: FC St. Pauli 28.9% / X 27.5% / 1. FC Köln 43.6%
Total 2.5: over probability 41.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.3%

1 33.4%

X 28.9%

2 37.7%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.8%

Over 2.5 48.4%

Under 2.5 51.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: X

Main outcome X

Agreement 3/4

Confidence 30.0%

Total Under 2.5

Score 1:1

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center

Start 17.04.2026 18:30 UTC

Stadium Millerntor-Stadion (Hamburg)

Capacity 29,546

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model 1. FC Köln 44%

💹 Market 1. FC Köln 3778%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

FC St. Pauli - 1. FC Köln

FC St. Pauli: Win 2.88 FC St. Pauli: Draw 3.30 1. FC Köln Win: 2.40 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.00 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.80 Individualnyy total golov FC St. Pauli bolshe 1.5: 2.50 Individualnyy total golov FC St. Pauli menshe 1.5: 1.50 Individualnyy total…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 1:1

Events 15

Statistics 24

Lineups 40

min Event Player Team

46' 46' Substitution 1 | J. Thielmann | assist/sub out: L. Maina 1. FC Köln

51' 51' Substitution 2 | R. Ache | assist/sub out: M. Bülter 1. FC Köln

65' 65' Substitution 1 | Lars Ritzka | assist/sub out: M. Saliakas FC St. Pauli

69' 69' Normal Goal | Karol Mets FC St. Pauli

70' 70' Substitution 3 | A. Castro-Montes | assist/sub out: K. Lund D. Pushkarev 1. FC Köln

71' 71' Yellow Card | Andreas Hountondji FC St. Pauli

76' 76' Yellow Card | Tomoya Ando FC St. Pauli

77' 77' Substitution 2 | Andreas Hountondji | assist/sub out: Connor Metcalfe FC St. Pauli

Metric FC St. Pauli 1. FC Köln SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.01 1.33 final

Zablokirovannye udary 4 4 final

Shots off target 4 5 final

Shots on target 6 1 final

Udary vsego 14 10 final

Fouls soversheno 6 2 final

Zheltye kartochki 4 1 final

Offsides 3 1 final

FC St. Pauli #3 K. Mets, #5 H. Wahl, #7 J. Irvine, #10 D. Sinani, #11 A. Pyrka, #15 T. Ando, #20 M. Rasmussen, #21 L. Ritzka, #22 N. Vasilj, #27 A. Hountondji, #28 Mathias Pereira Lage

1. FC Köln #1 M. Schwabe, #6 E. Martel, #9 R. Ache, #13 S. El Mala, #16 J. Kaminski, #17 A. Castro-Montes, #18 Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson, #22 J. Simpson-Pusey, #28 S. Sebulonsen, #29 J. Thielmann, #39 C. Ozkacar

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Dźwigała FC St. Pauli Seyvy 0

A. Hountondji FC St. Pauli Dribling popytki 1

A. Hountondji FC St. Pauli Dribling uspeshno 1

A. Hountondji FC St. Pauli Edinoborstva vyigrano 12

A. Hountondji FC St. Pauli Fouls na igroke 1

A. Hountondji FC St. Pauli Conceded golov 1

A. Hountondji FC St. Pauli Seyvy 0

A. Hountondji FC St. Pauli football.player.minutes_played 77

A. Hountondji FC St. Pauli Klyuchevye pasy 9

A. Hountondji FC St. Pauli Pasy vsego 3

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

FC St. Pauli 34.8% 28.9% market favourite

Draw 31.4% 27.5% draw risk

1. FC Köln 33.9% 43.6% Glicko contrarian

xG - 1.03 : 1.33

Total 2.5 Over 41.6% - Under 58.4%

Model check - - Difference 0.10

Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.10

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 28.9% / 27.5% / 43.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,406 / 1,443 FC St. Pauli / 1. FC Köln

RD 77 / 75 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.52 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 43.6%

X 3.29 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 2.84 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 28.9%

Double chance

X2 1.40 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 71.1%

12 1.32 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 72.5%

1X 1.54 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 56.4%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.42 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.16 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 2.40 market consensus · line only

2 +1 3.97 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.97 market consensus · no value · model 41.6%

Under 2.5 1.85 market consensus · value +8.1% · model 58.4%

Both teams to score

No 2.05 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.72 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	2.86 35.0%	2.39 41.8%	3.07 32.6%	2.80 35.7%	2.88 34.7%	2.92 34.3%
X	3.25 30.8%	3.25 30.8%	3.38 29.6%	3.20 31.3%	3.30 30.3%	3.30 30.3%
	2.42 41.3%	3.15 31.8%	2.54 39.4%	2.40 41.7%	2.40 41.7%	2.47 40.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet
no	2.00 50.0%	1.90 52.6%	2.04 49.0%	2.05 48.8%	2.00 50.0%	2.05 48.8%	2.15 46.5%	2.05 48.8%	2.02 49.5%
yes	1.75 57.1%	1.91 52.4%	1.71 58.5%	1.75 57.1%	1.75 57.1%	1.72 58.1%	1.67 59.9%	1.67 59.9%	1.71 58.5%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.40 71.4%	1.43 69.9%	1.40 71.4%	1.40 71.4%	1.44 69.4%	1.36 73.5%
home_away	1.28 78.1%	1.37 73.0%	1.33 75.2%	1.33 75.2%	1.32 75.8%	1.25 80.0%
home_draw	1.53 65.4%	1.58 63.3%	1.50 66.7%	1.53 65.4%	1.57 63.7%	1.53 65.4%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.06 94.3%	—	1.01 99.0%
Over 0.75	—	—	1.03 97.1%
Over 1.0	—	—	1.04 96.2%
Over 1.25	—	—	1.16 86.2%
Over 1.5	1.33 75.2%	—	1.28 78.1%
Over 1.75	—	—	1.36 73.5%
Over 2.25	—	1.96 51.0%	—
Over 2.5	2.00 50.0%	—	—
Over 3.5	3.45 29.0%	—	—
Over 4.5	6.50 15.4%	—	—
Under 0.5	8.50 11.8%	—	—
Under 1.5	3.25 30.8%	—	—
Under 2.25	—	1.94 51.6%	—
Under 2.5	1.80 55.6%	—	—
Under 3.5	1.30 76.9%	—	—
Under 4.5	1.10 90.9%	—	—

Match center

FC St. Pauli

Founded 1910

1. FC Köln

Founded 1948

Match center

FC St. Pauli

L D L L D

11.04 16:30 UTC Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli 0:5 Bavariya

05.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli 1:1 Union Berlin

22.03 16:30 UTC Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli 1:2 Frayburg

13.03 19:30 UTC Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli 0:2 Borussia Mönchengladbach

08.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli 0:0 Eintracht Frankfurt

0 Wins

2 Draws

3 Losses

0.4 Scored

2.0 Conceded

2 Points

1. FC Köln

W D D D L

12.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

1. FC Köln 3:1 Werder Bremen

05.04 15:30 UTC Bundesliga

1. FC Köln 2:2 Eintracht Frankfurt

21.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

1. FC Köln 3:3 Borussia Mönchengladbach

14.03 17:30 UTC Bundesliga

1. FC Köln 1:1 Hamburger SV

07.03 17:30 UTC Bundesliga

1. FC Köln 1:2 Borussia Dortmund

1 Wins

3 Draws

1 Losses

2.0 Scored

1.8 Conceded

6 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyFC St. Pauli - 1. FC Köln

FC St. Pauli

1 matches total

1. FC Köln

FC St. Pauli: 0 (0%)

Draws:1 (100%)

1. FC Köln: 0 (0%)

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 2 goals (1:1, 06.12 14:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (06.12 14:30 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 1

1 Goals conceded 1

Match history

06.12 14:30 UTC

Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli

1:1

1. FC Köln

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.