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Bundesliga
Bundesliga Germany
11.04.2026 16:30 UTC Match prediction
11.04.2026 16:30 UTC
Finished

Bundesliga

Germany

FC St. Pauli - Bayern München

Germany Football
Stadium Millerntor-Stadion
Capacity 29 546
FC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauli
0 : 5
Finished
Bayern München
Bayern München
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Bayern München — 72%

1 · FC St. Pauli10.7%
market13%
X · draw17.8%
market19%
2 · Bayern München ✓ Pick71.5%
market67%

Model estimate: win FC St. Pauli 10.7%, draw 17.8%, win Bayern München 71.5%. Model favourite — Bayern München.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction FC St. Pauli - Bayern München April 11, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Bayern München.

Strongest: Bayern München - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 7.12 / X 4.92 / 2 1.42
  • 1X2 market: FC St. Pauli 13.4% / X 19.4% / Bayern München 67.2%
  • Glicko: FC St. Pauli 10.7% / X 17.8% / Bayern München 71.5%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 28.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.8%
1 13.4%
X 19.4%
2 ✓ Pick 67.2%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.2%
Over 2.5 62.3%
Under 2.5 37.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 70.3%
Total Under 2.5
Score 0:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 11.04.2026 16:30 UTC
Stadium Millerntor-Stadion (Hamburg)
Capacity 29,546

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Bayern München 72%
💹 Market Bayern München 6721%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

FC St. Pauli - Bayern München

FC St. Pauli: Win 7.00 FC St. Pauli: Draw 4.75 Bayern München Win: 1.42 Obschiy total golov bolshe 3.5: 2.20 Obschiy total golov menshe 3.5: 1.67 Individualnyy total golov FC St. Pauli bolshe 0.5: 1.53 Individualnyy total golov FC St. Pauli menshe 0.5: 2.38 Individualnyy t…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:5
Events 18
Statistics 24
Lineups 40
min Event Player Team
9' 9' Normal Goal Bayern München
19' 19' Yellow Card | Konrad Laimer C. Ramsay Bayern München
53' 53' Yellow Card | Joel Chima Fujita FC St. Pauli
53' 53' Yellow Card | Michael Olise Taylor Fritz Bayern München
53' 53' Normal Goal | Leon Goretzka Denilson Bayern München
55' 55' Normal Goal | Michael Olise Taylor Fritz Bayern München
59' 59' Substitution 1 | Konrad Laimer | assist/sub out: Josip Stanišić C. Ramsay Bayern München
59' 59' Substitution 2 | Joshua Kimmich | assist/sub out: Alphonso Davies F. Saucedo Bayern München
Metric FC St. Pauli Bayern München SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.49 3.84 final
Zablokirovannye udary 1 7 final
Shots off target 2 5 final
Shots on target 3 8 final
Udary vsego 6 20 final
Fouls soversheno 9 7 final
Zheltye kartochki 1 2 final
Offsides 2 3 final
FC St. Pauli #1 Manuel Neuer, #3 Kim Min-Jae, #6 Joshua Kimmich, #8 Leon Goretzka, #10 J. Musiala, #11 Nicolas Jackson, #17 Michael Olise, #20 Tom Bischof, #21 Hiroki Itō, #22 Raphaël Guerreiro, #27 Konrad Laimer
Bayern München #3 K. Mets, #5 H. Wahl, #10 D. Sinani, #11 A. Pyrka, #15 T. Ando, #16 J. Fujita, #20 M. Rasmussen, #21 L. Ritzka, #22 N. Vasilj, #27 A. Hountondji, #28 Mathias Pereira Lage
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Dźwigała Bayern München Seyvy 0
A. Hountondji Bayern München Dribling uspeshno 1
A. Hountondji Bayern München Edinoborstva vyigrano 2
A. Hountondji Bayern München Conceded golov 1
A. Hountondji Bayern München Seyvy 0
A. Hountondji Bayern München football.player.minutes_played 77
A. Hountondji Bayern München Klyuchevye pasy 5
A. Hountondji Bayern München Pasy vsego 1
A. Hountondji Bayern München Reyting (staryy) 6.5
A. Hountondji Bayern München Shots on target 1
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
FC St. Pauli 11.8% 10.7%
Draw 19.2% 17.8% draw risk
Bayern München 69.0% 71.5% market and model agree
xG - 0.72 : 2.22
Total 2.5 Over 28.7% - Under 71.3%
Model check - - Difference 0.03
Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 10.7% / 17.8% / 71.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,410 / 1,822 FC St. Pauli / Bayern München
RD 77 / 95 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.42 market consensus · no value · model 71.5%
X 4.92 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 7.12 market consensus · no value · model 10.7%
Double chance
X2 1.10 market consensus · no value · model 89.4%
12 1.16 market consensus · no value · model 82.2%
1X 2.85 market consensus · no value · model 28.5%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.11 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.01 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.40 market consensus · line only
2 +1 1.62 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.51 market consensus · no value · model 28.7%
Under 2.5 2.50 market consensus · weak value +78.2% · model 71.3%
Both teams to score
No 2.09 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.69 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
8.50 11.8% 6.90 14.5% 7.31 13.7% 7.00 14.3% 7.30 13.7% 7.50 13.3%
X 4.90 20.4% 5.00 20.0% 5.13 19.5% 4.75 21.1% 4.90 20.4% 5.00 20.0%
1.33 75.2% 1.43 69.9% 1.46 68.5% 1.42 70.4% 1.47 68.0% 1.40 71.4%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 2.00 50.0% 2.20 45.5% 2.11 47.4% 2.10 47.6% 2.12 47.2% 2.05 48.8% 2.15 46.5% 2.08 48.1% 2.02 49.5%
yes 1.75 57.1% 1.68 59.5% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.73 57.8% 1.62 61.7% 1.67 59.9% 1.71 58.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
draw_away 1.07 93.5% 1.11 90.1% 1.10 90.9% 1.13 88.5% 1.07 93.5% 1.13 88.5%
home_away 1.12 89.3% 1.20 83.3% 1.18 84.8% 1.19 84.0% 1.14 87.7% 1.10 90.9%
home_draw 3.10 32.3% 2.92 34.3% 2.75 36.4% 2.85 35.1% 2.88 34.7% 2.75 36.4%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 — — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.5 1.17 85.5% — 1.11 90.1%
Over 1.75 — — 1.14 87.7%
Over 2.5 1.50 66.7% — —
Over 3.0 — 1.84 54.4% —
Over 3.25 — 2.06 48.5% —
Over 3.5 2.25 44.4% — —
Over 4.5 3.85 26.0% — —
Over 5.5 7.00 14.3% — —
Under 1.5 5.00 20.0% — —
Under 2.5 2.50 40.0% — —
Under 3.0 — 2.06 48.5% —
Under 3.25 — 1.84 54.4% —
Under 3.5 1.62 61.7% — —
Under 4.5 1.25 80.0% — —
Under 5.5 1.09 91.7% — —
Match center
FC St. Pauli
Founded 1910
Bayern München
Founded 1900
Match center
FC St. Pauli
JI J. Irvine Red Card
ES E. Smith Injury
Bayern München
SU S. Ulreich Muscle Injury
LK Lennart Karl Muscle Injury
FC St. Pauli Founded: 1910
Bayern München Founded: 1900
Match center
FC St. Pauli
D L L D W
05.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
FC St. Pauli 1:1 Union BerlinUnion Berlin
22.03 16:30 UTC Bundesliga
FC St. Pauli 1:2 FrayburgFrayburg
13.03 19:30 UTC Bundesliga
FC St. Pauli 0:2 Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach
08.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga
FC St. Pauli 0:0 Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt
28.02 14:30 UTC Bundesliga
FC St. Pauli 1:0 1899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
0.6 Scored
1.0 Conceded
5 Points
Bayern München
W W D W W
04.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayern München 3:2 FrayburgFrayburg
21.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayern München 4:0 Union BerlinUnion Berlin
14.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayern München 1:1 Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen
06.03 19:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayern München 4:1 Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach
28.02 17:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayern München 3:2 Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
4 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
3.0 Scored
1.2 Conceded
13 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyFC St. Pauli - Bayern München

FC St. Pauli
1 matches total
Bayern München
FC St. Pauli: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Bayern München: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Bavariya 1:3 (29.11 14:30 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 4 goals (1:3, 29.11 14:30 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 3
3 Goals conceded 1

Match history

29.11 14:30 UTC Bundesliga
FC St. Pauli
1:3
Bavariya
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.