Bundesliga Germany

03.05.2026 13:30 UTC Match prediction

03.05.2026 13:30 UTC

Finished

Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli - FSV Mainz 05

Germany Futbol

Stadium Millerntor-Stadion

Capacity 29 546

FC St. Pauli

1 : 2

Finished

FSV Mainz 05

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 FSV Mainz 05 — 43%

1 · FC St. Pauli29.3%

X · draw28.0%

2 · FSV Mainz 0542.7%

Model estimate: win FC St. Pauli 29.3%, draw 28.0%, win FSV Mainz 05 42.7%. Model favourite — FSV Mainz 05.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction FC St. Pauli - FSV Mainz 05 3 мая 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like FSV Mainz 05.

Strongest: FSV Mainz 05 - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.75 / X 3.24 / 2 2.60
1X2 market: FC St. Pauli 34.4% / X 29.2% / FSV Mainz 05 36.4%
Glicko: FC St. Pauli 29.3% / X 28.0% / FSV Mainz 05 42.7%
Total 2.5: over probability 37.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.7%

1 34.4%

X 29.2%

2 36.4%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.1%

Over 2.5 46.0%

Under 2.5 54.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

Главный консенсус AI: Х

Main outcome Х

Agreement 4/5

Confidence 41.4%

Total ТМ 2.5

Score 1:1

Модели не полностью совпадают, поэтому прогноз нужно сверять с рынком и линией.

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Match center

Start 03.05.2026 13:30 UTC

Stadium Millerntor-Stadion (Hamburg)

Capacity 29,546

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model FSV Mainz 05 43%

💹 Market FSV Mainz 05 3637%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

FC St. Pauli - FSV Mainz 05

FC St. Pauli: Победа 2.75 FC St. Pauli: Ничья 3.40 FSV Mainz 05 Победа: 2.50 Общий тотал голов больше 2.5: 2.10 Общий тотал голов меньше 2.5: 1.73 Индивидуальный тотал голов FC St. Pauli больше 1.5: 2.62 Индивидуальный тотал голов FC St. Pauli меньше 1.5: 1.44 Индивидуальный тот…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 1:2

Events 17

Statistics 24

Lineups 80

min Event Player Team

6' 6' Normal Goal | Phillip Tietz P. Tietz FSV Mainz 05

40' 40' Normal Goal | P. Mwene Phillipp Mwene FSV Mainz 05

46' 46' Substitution 1 | D. Sinani | assist/sub out: Connor Metcalfe D. Sinani FC St. Pauli

46' 46' Substitution 2 | Lars Ritzka | assist/sub out: Adam Dźwigała L. Ritzka FC St. Pauli

65' 65' Substitution 3 | Eric Smith | assist/sub out: Abdoulie Ceesay Eric Smith FC St. Pauli

65' 65' Substitution 4 | Andreas Hountondji | assist/sub out: Taichi Hara A. Hountondji FC St. Pauli

68' 68' Yellow Card | Daniel Batz D. Batz FSV Mainz 05

72' 72' Substitution 1 | S. Becker | assist/sub out: Armindo Sieb S. Becker FSV Mainz 05

Metric FC St. Pauli FSV Mainz 05 SStats

Ожидаемые голы (xG) 0.84 2.54 final

Заблокированные удары 2 7 final

Удары мимо 5 4 final

Удары в створ 3 6 final

Удары всего 10 17 final

Фолы совершено 10 8 final

Желтые карточки 3 1 final

Офсайды 1 4 final

FC St. Pauli #2 Phillipp Mwene, #4 S. Posch, #6 Kaishu Sano, #8 P. Nebel, #10 Nadiem Amiri, #20 P. Tietz, #21 D. da Costa, #23 S. Becker, #30 S. Widmer, #33 D. Batz, #48 K. Potulski

FSV Mainz 05 #3 K. Mets, #5 H. Wahl, #7 J. Irvine, #8 Eric Smith, #10 D. Sinani, #11 A. Pyrka, #15 T. Ando, #16 J. Fujita, #21 L. Ritzka, #22 N. Vasilj, #27 A. Hountondji

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Caci FC St. Pauli Сейвы 0

A. Caci FC St. Pauli Ключевые пасы 11

A. Caci FC St. Pauli Рейтинг (старый) 6.2

A. Caci FC St. Pauli Отборы всего 8

A. Dźwigała FC St. Pauli football.player.minutes_played 49

A. Hountondji FC St. Pauli football.player.minutes_played 65

A. Pyrka FC St. Pauli football.player.minutes_played 94

A. Sieb FC St. Pauli Дриблинг попытки 1

A. Sieb FC St. Pauli Дриблинг успешно 1

A. Sieb FC St. Pauli Единоборства выиграно 6

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

FC St. Pauli 34.0% 29.3%

Draw 28.1% 28.0% draw risk

FSV Mainz 05 37.9% 42.7% market and model agree

xG - 1.01 : 1.29

Total 2.5 Over 37.9% - Under 62.1%

Model check - - Difference 0.05

Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.05

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 29.3% / 28.0% / 42.7% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,392 / 1,503 FC St. Pauli / FSV Mainz 05

RD 75 / 74 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: value не найден

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.60 market consensus · no value · model 42.7%

X 3.24 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 2.75 market consensus · no value · model 29.3%

Double chance

X2 1.43 market consensus · no value · model 70.7%

12 1.33 market consensus · no value · model 72.0%

1X 1.50 market consensus · no value · model 57.3%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.45 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.17 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 2.50 market consensus · line only

2 +1 4.29 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.07 market consensus · no value · model 37.9%

Under 2.5 1.76 market consensus · value +9.2% · model 62.1%

Both teams to score

No 1.96 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.78 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
П1	2.66 37.6%	2.89 34.6%	2.70 37.0%	2.70 37.0%	2.72 36.8%	2.70 37.0%
Х	3.25 30.8%	3.38 29.6%	3.10 32.3%	3.30 30.3%	3.25 30.8%	3.25 30.8%
П2	2.60 38.5%	2.68 37.3%	2.50 40.0%	2.62 38.2%	2.67 37.5%	2.60 38.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	2.00 50.0%	1.92 52.1%	2.00 50.0%	2.00 50.0%	1.95 51.3%	1.95 51.3%	1.95 51.3%	1.90 52.6%	1.96 51.0%
yes	1.77 56.5%	1.80 55.6%	1.80 55.6%	1.75 57.1%	1.80 55.6%	1.80 55.6%	1.75 57.1%	1.80 55.6%	1.77 56.5%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.45 69.0%	1.47 68.0%	1.40 71.4%	1.40 71.4%	1.47 68.0%	1.40 71.4%
home_away	1.28 78.1%	1.37 73.0%	1.33 75.2%	1.30 76.9%	1.33 75.2%	1.29 77.5%
home_draw	1.48 67.6%	1.53 65.4%	1.53 65.4%	1.50 66.7%	1.50 66.7%	1.44 69.4%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet
ТБ 0.5	1.06 94.3%	1.02 98.0%
ТБ 0.75	—	1.03 97.1%
ТБ 1.0	—	1.05 95.2%
ТБ 1.25	—	1.19 84.0%
ТБ 1.5	1.35 74.1%	1.32 75.8%
ТБ 1.75	—	1.42 70.4%
ТБ 2.0	—	1.55 64.5%
ТБ 2.25	—	1.91 52.4%
ТБ 2.5	2.00 50.0%	—
ТБ 3.5	3.65 27.4%	—
ТБ 4.5	7.00 14.3%	—
ТМ 0.5	8.50 11.8%	—
ТМ 1.5	3.10 32.3%	—
ТМ 2.5	1.77 56.5%	—
ТМ 3.5	1.28 78.1%	—
ТМ 4.5	1.09 91.7%	—

Match center

FC St. Pauli

Founded 1910

FSV Mainz 05

Founded 1905

Match center

FC St. Pauli

MP Mathias Pereira Lage Knee Injury

JS J. Sands Ankle Injury

FSV Mainz 05

LJ Lee Jae-Sung Toe Injury

S Silas Broken shinbone

FC St. Pauli Founded: 1910

FSV Mainz 05 Founded: 1905

Match center

FC St. Pauli

L D L D L

25.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli 0:2 1. FC Heidenheim

17.04 18:30 UTC Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli 1:1 1. FC Köln

11.04 16:30 UTC Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli 0:5 Bavariya

05.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli 1:1 Union Berlin

22.03 16:30 UTC Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli 1:2 Frayburg

0 Wins

2 Draws

3 Losses

0.6 Scored

2.2 Conceded

2 Points

FSV Mainz 05

L D L W W

25.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

FSV Mainz 05 3:4 Bavariya

19.04 17:30 UTC Bundesliga

FSV Mainz 05 1:1 Borussia Mönchengladbach

12.04 17:30 UTC Bundesliga

FSV Mainz 05 0:1 Frayburg

04.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

FSV Mainz 05 2:1 1899 Hoffenheim

22.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

FSV Mainz 05 2:1 Eintracht Frankfurt

2 Wins

1 Draws

2 Losses

1.6 Scored

1.6 Conceded

7 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyFC St. Pauli - FSV Mainz 05

FC St. Pauli

2 matches total

FSV Mainz 05

FC St. Pauli: 0 (0%)

Draws:1 (50%)

FSV Mainz 05: 1 (50%)

Biggest win Maynts 0:3 (05.10 16:30 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 3 goals (0:3, 05.10 16:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 0:0 (21.12 14:30 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 3

3 Goals conceded 0

Match history

21.12 14:30 UTC

Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli

0:0

Maynts

05.10 16:30 UTC

Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli

0:3

Maynts

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.