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Bundesliga
Bundesliga Germany
23.11.2025 16:30 UTC Match prediction
23.11.2025 16:30 UTC
Finished

Bundesliga

Germany

FC St. Pauli - Union Berlin

Germany Football
FC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauli
0 : 1
Finished
Union Berlin
Union Berlin

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction FC St. Pauli - Union Berlin November 23, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like FC St. Pauli.

Line favourite market consensus: FC St. Pauli. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.65 / X 3.05 / 2 2.90
  • 1X2 market: FC St. Pauli 35.9% / X 31.2% / Union Berlin 32.8%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 60.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.0%
1 35.9%
X 31.2%
2 32.8%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.2%
Over 2.5 39.4%
Under 2.5 60.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 23.11.2025 16:30 UTC
Match center

FC St. Pauli - Union Berlin

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.90 market consensus · line only
X 3.06 market consensus · line only
1 2.66 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.50 market consensus · line only
12 1.38 market consensus · line only
1X 1.42 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.51 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.20 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.87 market consensus · line only
2 +1 5.41 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.41 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.57 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.79 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.96 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.72 36.8%
X 3.14 31.9%
2.93 34.1%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
2.60 38.5% 2.66 37.6% 2.70 37.0% 2.60 38.5% 2.70 37.0% 2.62 38.2%
X 3.00 33.3% 3.10 32.3% 3.18 31.5% 2.90 34.5% 3.10 32.3% 3.10 32.3%
2.90 34.5% 2.90 34.5% 3.02 33.1% 2.80 35.7% 2.88 34.7% 2.90 34.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 1.77 56.5% 1.84 54.4% 1.78 56.2% 1.80 55.6% 1.75 57.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.76 56.8% 1.84 54.4%
yes 1.93 51.8% 1.98 50.5% 1.95 51.3% 1.91 52.4% 2.00 50.0% 1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3% 2.04 49.0%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.48 67.6% 1.52 65.8% 1.50 66.7% 1.44 69.4% 1.52 65.8% 1.53 65.4%
home_away 1.33 75.2% 1.40 71.4% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.35 74.1% 1.41 70.9%
home_draw 1.40 71.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.44 69.4%
Match center
FC St. Pauli
L L L L L
09.11 14:30 UTC Bundesliga
FC St. Pauli 1:2 FrayburgFrayburg
01.11 14:30 UTC Bundesliga
FC St. Pauli 0:4 Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach
25.10 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
FC St. Pauli 0:2 Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt
19.10 15:30 UTC Bundesliga
FC St. Pauli 0:3 1899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim
04.10 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
FC St. Pauli 0:1 Werder BremenWerder Bremen
0 Wins
0 Draws
5 Losses
0.2 Scored
2.4 Conceded
0 Points
Union Berlin
D D L W L
08.11 14:30 UTC Bundesliga
Union Berlin 2:2 BavariyaBavariya
01.11 14:30 UTC Bundesliga
Union Berlin 0:0 FrayburgFrayburg
24.10 18:30 UTC Bundesliga
Union Berlin 0:1 Werder BremenWerder Bremen
17.10 18:30 UTC Bundesliga
Union Berlin 3:1 Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach
04.10 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Union Berlin 0:2 Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.2 Conceded
5 Points