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Bundesliga
Bundesliga Germany
17.05.2025 13:30 UTC Match prediction
17.05.2025 13:30 UTC
Finished

Bundesliga

Germany

FSV Mainz 05 - Bayer Leverkusen

Germany Football
FSV Mainz 05
FSV Mainz 05
2 : 2
Finished
Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction FSV Mainz 05 - Bayer Leverkusen May 17, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like FSV Mainz 05.

Line favourite market consensus: FSV Mainz 05. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.36 / X 3.88 / 2 2.89
  • 1X2 market: FSV Mainz 05 41.2% / X 25.1% / Bayer Leverkusen 33.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 2.7%
1 41.2%
X 25.1%
2 33.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 17.05.2025 13:30 UTC
Match center

FSV Mainz 05 - Bayer Leverkusen

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.89 market consensus · line only
X 3.88 market consensus · line only
1 2.36 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.65 market consensus · line only
12 1.29 market consensus · line only
1X 1.46 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.36 42.4%
X 3.88 25.8%
2.89 34.6%

Double chance

Outcome SStats Consensus
draw_away 1.65 60.6%
home_away 1.29 77.5%
home_draw 1.46 68.5%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome SStats Consensus
Over 3.5 2.17 46.1%
Under 3.5 1.74 57.5%

Home/Away

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.75 57.1%
2.16 46.3%
Match center
FSV Mainz 05
W D L D L
10.05 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
FSV Mainz 05 4:1 VfL BochumVfL Bochum
04.05 17:30 UTC Bundesliga
FSV Mainz 05 1:1 Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt
26.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
FSV Mainz 05 0:3 BavariyaBavariya
19.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
FSV Mainz 05 2:2 VfL WolfsburgVfL Wolfsburg
12.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
FSV Mainz 05 0:2 1899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
1.4 Scored
1.8 Conceded
5 Points
Bayer Leverkusen
L D W D D
11.05 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen 2:4 Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
04.05 15:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen 2:2 FrayburgFrayburg
26.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen 2:0 FC AugsburgFC Augsburg
20.04 17:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen 1:1 FC St. PauliFC St. Pauli
12.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen 0:0 Union BerlinUnion Berlin
1 Wins
3 Draws
1 Losses
1.4 Scored
1.4 Conceded
6 Points