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Bundesliga Germany

18.10.2025 13:30 UTC Match prediction

18.10.2025 13:30 UTC

Finished

Bundesliga

FSV Mainz 05 - Bayer Leverkusen

Germany Football

FSV Mainz 05

3 : 4

Finished

Bayer Leverkusen

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction FSV Mainz 05 - Bayer Leverkusen October 18, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Bayer Leverkusen.

Line favourite market consensus: Bayer Leverkusen. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.69 / X 3.52 / 2 2.60
1X2 market: FSV Mainz 05 35.8% / X 27.3% / Bayer Leverkusen 36.9%
Total 2.5: over probability 56.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.0%

1 35.7%

X 27.3%

2 37.0%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 3.5%

Over 2.5 56.5%

Under 2.5 43.5%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 18.10.2025 13:30 UTC

Match center

FSV Mainz 05 - Bayer Leverkusen

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.61 market consensus · line only

X 3.53 market consensus · line only

1 2.69 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 1.50 market consensus · line only

12 1.32 market consensus · line only

1X 1.52 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.52 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.20 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 2.58 market consensus · line only

2 +1 4.13 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.71 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 2.22 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 2.40 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.55 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	2.69 37.2%
X	3.59 27.9%
	2.66 37.6%

Match Winner

Outcome	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Marathonbet	Pinnacle	SStats Consensus
	2.70 37.0%	2.78 36.0%	2.60 38.5%	2.72 36.8%	2.69 37.2%	2.69 37.2%
X	3.50 28.6%	3.61 27.7%	3.50 28.6%	3.54 28.3%	3.59 27.9%	3.59 27.9%
	2.58 38.8%	2.64 37.9%	2.60 38.5%	2.59 38.6%	2.66 37.6%	2.66 37.6%

Both teams to score

Outcome	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Marathonbet	Pinnacle	William Hill
no	2.37 42.2%	2.37 42.2%	2.38 42.0%	2.34 42.7%	2.53 39.5%	2.40 41.7%
yes	1.59 62.9%	1.53 65.4%	1.53 65.4%	1.53 65.4%	1.56 64.1%	1.53 65.4%

Double chance

Outcome	1xBet	Bet365	Marathonbet	Pinnacle	SStats Consensus	William Hill
draw_away	1.50 66.7%	1.50 66.7%	1.50 66.7%	1.52 65.8%	1.52 65.8%	1.44 69.4%
home_away	1.34 74.6%	1.28 78.1%	1.33 75.2%	1.33 75.2%	1.33 75.2%	1.30 76.9%
home_draw	1.54 64.9%	1.50 66.7%	1.54 64.9%	1.53 65.4%	1.53 65.4%	1.50 66.7%