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Bundesliga Germany

25.04.2026 13:30 UTC Match prediction Prediction

25.04.2026 13:30 UTC

Finished

Bundesliga

FSV Mainz 05 - Bayern München

Germany Football

Stadium MEWA ARENA

Capacity 34 034

FSV Mainz 05

3 : 4

Finished

Bayern München

🎯 PropickAI prediction

High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Bayern München — 64%

1 · FSV Mainz 0515.7%

market21%

X · draw20.1%

market21%

2 · Bayern München ✓ Pick64.2%

market58%

Model estimate: win FSV Mainz 05 15.7%, draw 20.1%, win Bayern München 64.2%. Model favourite — Bayern München.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction FSV Mainz 05 - Bayern München April 25, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Bayern München.

Strongest: Bayern München - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 4.46 / X 4.42 / 2 1.64
1X2 market: FSV Mainz 05 21.2% / X 21.4% / Bayern München 57.5%
Glicko: FSV Mainz 05 15.7% / X 20.1% / Bayern München 64.2%
Total 2.5: over probability 27.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.0%

1 21.1%

X 21.3%

2 ✓ Pick 57.5%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.8%

Over 2.5 67.4%

Under 2.5 32.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome

Agreement 5/6

Confidence 61.1%

Total Under 2.5

Score 0:1

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center

Start 25.04.2026 13:30 UTC

Stadium MEWA ARENA (Mainz)

Capacity 34,034

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Bayern München 64%

💹 Market Bayern München 5747%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

FSV Mainz 05 - Bayern München

FSV Mainz 05: Win 4.33 FSV Mainz 05: Draw 4.50 Bayern München Win: 1.65 Obschiy total golov bolshe 3.5: 2.00 Obschiy total golov menshe 3.5: 1.80 Individualnyy total golov FSV Mainz 05 bolshe 1.5: 2.50 Individualnyy total golov FSV Mainz 05 menshe 1.5: 1.50 Individualnyy t…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 3:4

Events 20

Statistics 24

Lineups 38

min Event Player Team

15' 15' Normal Goal | Dominik Kohr | assist/sub out: K. Sano P. Dorgu FSV Mainz 05

20' 20' Yellow Card | Dominik Kohr P. Dorgu FSV Mainz 05

29' 29' Normal Goal | Paul Nebel FSV Mainz 05

33' 33' Yellow Card | K. Laimer C. Ramsay Bayern München

45+2' 45+2' Normal Goal | Sheraldo Becker FSV Mainz 05

46' 46' Substitution 1 | A. Pavlović | assist/sub out: H. Kane Bayern München

46' 46' Substitution 2 | L. Diaz | assist/sub out: M. Olise H. Tabaković Bayern München

53' 53' Normal Goal | N. Jackson | assist/sub out: K. Laimer Bayern München

Metric FSV Mainz 05 Bayern München SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.69 2.21 final

Zablokirovannye udary 5 1 final

Shots off target 8 4 final

Shots on target 8 6 final

Udary vsego 21 11 final

Fouls soversheno 14 10 final

Zheltye kartochki 1 2 final

Offsides 1 0 final

FSV Mainz 05 #3 Kim Min-Jae, #8 Leon Goretzka, #11 Nicolas Jackson, #14 Luis Díaz, #19 A. Davies, #21 Hiroki Itō, #22 Raphaël Guerreiro, #27 Konrad Laimer, #39 B. Ndiaye, #40 J. Urbig, #45 Aleksandar Pavlović

Bayern München #2 Phillipp Mwene, #4 S. Posch, #6 Kaishu Sano, #8 P. Nebel, #10 Nadiem Amiri, #20 P. Tietz, #21 D. da Costa, #23 S. Becker, #30 S. Widmer, #31 D. Kohr, #33 D. Batz

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Caci Bayern München Seyvy 0

A. Sieb Bayern München Seyvy 0

D. Batz Bayern München Seyvy 1

D. Batz Bayern München football.player.minutes_played 64

D. Batz Bayern München Klyuchevye pasy 20

D. Batz Bayern München Reyting 2

D. Batz Bayern München Reyting (staryy) 7.2

D. Batz Bayern München Otbory vsego 10

D. da Costa Bayern München Dribling popytki 1

D. da Costa Bayern München Edinoborstva vyigrano 2

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

FSV Mainz 05 20.3% 15.7%

Draw 21.0% 20.1% draw risk

Bayern München 58.7% 64.2% market and model agree

xG - 0.93 : 2.09

Total 2.5 Over 27.5% - Under 72.5%

Model check - - Difference 0.06

Market vs Glicko gap: 0.06

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 15.7% / 20.1% / 64.2% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,503 / 1,833 FSV Mainz 05 / Bayern München

RD 74 / 93 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.64 market consensus · value +5.3% · model 64.2%

X 4.42 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 4.46 market consensus · no value · model 15.7%

Double chance

X2 1.20 market consensus · no value · model 84.3%

12 1.19 market consensus · no value · model 79.9%

1X 2.21 market consensus · no value · model 35.8%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.21 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.02 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 1.62 market consensus · line only

2 +1 2.03 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.39 market consensus · no value · model 27.5%

Under 2.5 2.87 market consensus · weak value +108.0% · model 72.5%

Both teams to score

No 2.65 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.43 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	4.20 23.8%	4.85 20.6%	4.40 22.7%	4.33 23.1%	4.55 22.0%	4.60 21.7%
X	4.40 22.7%	4.70 21.3%	4.33 23.1%	4.50 22.2%	4.40 22.7%	4.60 21.7%
	1.66 60.2%	1.68 59.5%	1.62 61.7%	1.65 60.6%	1.65 60.6%	1.65 60.6%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	2.70 37.0%	2.66 37.6%	2.63 38.0%	2.62 38.2%	2.62 38.2%	2.63 38.0%	2.70 37.0%	2.62 38.2%	2.70 37.0%
yes	1.42 70.4%	1.43 69.9%	1.44 69.4%	1.44 69.4%	1.45 69.0%	1.44 69.4%	1.40 71.4%	1.43 69.9%	1.42 70.4%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.20 83.3%	1.22 82.0%	1.20 83.3%	1.20 83.3%	1.22 82.0%	1.17 85.5%
home_away	1.17 85.5%	1.23 81.3%	1.20 83.3%	1.18 84.8%	1.21 82.6%	1.17 85.5%
home_draw	2.15 46.5%	2.33 42.9%	2.25 44.4%	2.20 45.5%	2.27 44.1%	2.10 47.6%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	—	1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0	—	1.01 99.0%
Over 1.5	1.12 89.3%	1.07 93.5%
Over 1.75	—	1.08 92.6%
Over 2.0	—	1.11 90.1%
Over 2.25	—	1.24 80.7%
Over 2.5	1.40 71.4%	1.36 73.5%
Over 2.75	—	1.44 69.4%
Over 3.5	2.00 50.0%	—
Over 4.5	3.20 31.3%	—
Over 5.5	5.75 17.4%	—
Under 1.5	6.00 16.7%	—
Under 2.5	2.90 34.5%	—
Under 3.5	1.80 55.6%	—
Under 4.5	1.33 75.2%	—
Under 5.5	1.13 88.5%	—

Match center

FSV Mainz 05

Founded 1905

Bayern München

Founded 1900

Match center

FSV Mainz 05

D L W W W

19.04 17:30 UTC Bundesliga

FSV Mainz 05 1:1 Borussia Mönchengladbach

12.04 17:30 UTC Bundesliga

FSV Mainz 05 0:1 Frayburg

04.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

FSV Mainz 05 2:1 1899 Hoffenheim

22.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

FSV Mainz 05 2:1 Eintracht Frankfurt

15.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

FSV Mainz 05 2:0 Werder Bremen

3 Wins

1 Draws

1 Losses

1.4 Scored

0.8 Conceded

10 Points

Bayern München

W W W W D

19.04 15:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayern München 4:2 VfB Stuttgart

11.04 16:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayern München 5:0 FC St. Pauli

04.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayern München 3:2 Frayburg

21.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayern München 4:0 Union Berlin

14.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayern München 1:1 Bayer Leverkusen

4 Wins

1 Draws

0 Losses

3.4 Scored

1.0 Conceded

13 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyFSV Mainz 05 - Bayern München

FSV Mainz 05

2 matches total

Bayern München

FSV Mainz 05: 0 (0%)

Draws:1 (50%)

Bayern München: 1 (50%)

Biggest win Bavariya 0:3 (26.04 13:30 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 4 goals (2:2, 14.12 16:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 2:2 (14.12 16:30 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0

0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

14.12 16:30 UTC

Bundesliga

Maynts

2:2

Bavariya

26.04 13:30 UTC

Bundesliga

Maynts

0:3

Bavariya

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.