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Bundesliga Germany

20.02.2026 19:30 UTC Match prediction

20.02.2026 19:30 UTC

Finished

Bundesliga

FSV Mainz 05 - Hamburger SV

Germany Football

FSV Mainz 05

1 : 1

Finished

Hamburger SV

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction FSV Mainz 05 - Hamburger SV February 20, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like FSV Mainz 05.

Line favourite Fonbet: FSV Mainz 05. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 2.05 / X 3.45 / 2 3.65
1X2 market: FSV Mainz 05 46.4% / X 27.6% / Hamburger SV 26.1%
Total 2.5: over probability 54.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.2%

1 46.4%

X 27.6%

2 26.1%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.9%

Over 2.5 53.9%

Under 2.5 46.1%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 20.02.2026 19:30 UTC

Match center

FSV Mainz 05 - Hamburger SV

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 3.65 Fonbet · line only

X 3.45 Fonbet · line only

1 2.05 Fonbet · line only

Double chance

X2 1.77 Fonbet · line only

12 1.30 Fonbet · line only

1X 1.28 Fonbet · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.79 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.38 Fonbet · line only

2 +0.5 3.45 market consensus · line only

2 +1 5.70 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.75 Fonbet · line only

Under 2.5 2.05 Fonbet · line only

Both teams to score

No 2.25 Fonbet · line only

Yes 1.60 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	2.11 47.4%
X	3.50 28.6%
	3.72 26.9%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	2.08 48.1%	2.08 48.1%	2.16 46.3%	2.05 48.8%	2.05 48.8%	2.10 47.6%
X	3.40 29.4%	3.50 28.6%	3.50 28.6%	3.20 31.3%	3.40 29.4%	3.45 29.0%
	3.40 29.4%	3.65 27.4%	3.73 26.8%	3.40 29.4%	3.50 28.6%	3.50 28.6%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	Betway	Bwin
no	2.20 45.5%	2.35 42.6%	2.22 45.1%	2.15 46.5%	2.20 45.5%	2.25 44.4%	2.25 44.4%	2.20 45.5%	2.10 47.6%
yes	1.62 61.7%	1.60 62.5%	1.60 62.5%	1.62 61.7%	1.62 61.7%	1.60 62.5%	1.60 62.5%	1.65 60.6%	1.63 61.4%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.70 58.8%	1.78 56.2%	1.73 57.8%	1.70 58.8%	1.78 56.2%	1.67 59.9%
home_away	1.25 80.0%	1.35 74.1%	1.33 75.2%	1.30 76.9%	1.30 76.9%	1.25 80.0%
home_draw	1.30 76.9%	1.32 75.8%	1.30 76.9%	1.28 78.1%	1.32 75.8%	1.29 77.5%