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Bundesliga Germany

12.04.2026 17:30 UTC Match prediction

12.04.2026 17:30 UTC

Finished

Bundesliga

FSV Mainz 05 - SC Freiburg

Germany Football

Stadium MEWA ARENA

Capacity 34 034

FSV Mainz 05

0 : 1

Finished

SC Freiburg

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 FSV Mainz 05 — 40%

1 · FSV Mainz 0539.8%

X · draw27.6%

2 · SC Freiburg32.6%

Model estimate: win FSV Mainz 05 39.8%, draw 27.6%, win SC Freiburg 32.6%. Model favourite — FSV Mainz 05.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction FSV Mainz 05 - SC Freiburg April 12, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like FSV Mainz 05.

Strongest: FSV Mainz 05 - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.28 / X 3.26 / 2 3.28
1X2 market: FSV Mainz 05 41.8% / X 29.2% / SC Freiburg 29.0%
Glicko: FSV Mainz 05 39.8% / X 27.6% / SC Freiburg 32.6%
Total 2.5: over probability 37.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.0%

1 41.8%

X 29.2%

2 29.0%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.6%

Over 2.5 52.2%

Under 2.5 47.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 3/4

Confidence 41.4%

Total Under 2.5

Score 1:1

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center

Start 12.04.2026 17:30 UTC

Stadium MEWA ARENA (Mainz)

Capacity 34,034

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model FSV Mainz 05 40%

💹 Market FSV Mainz 05 4176%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

FSV Mainz 05 - SC Freiburg

FSV Mainz 05: Win 2.30 FSV Mainz 05: Draw 3.10 SC Freiburg Win: 3.40 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.80 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.00 Individualnyy total golov FSV Mainz 05 bolshe 1.5: 2.10 Individualnyy total golov FSV Mainz 05 menshe 1.5: 1.67 Individualnyy tota…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 0:1

Events 16

Statistics 24

Lineups 40

min Event Player Team

33' 33' Yellow Card | Bruno Ogbus SC Freiburg

45+4' 45+4' Yellow Card | Maximilian Eggestein Montassar Talbi SC Freiburg

45+4' 45+4' Yellow Card | J. Schuster SC Freiburg

46' 46' Substitution 1 | Bruno Ogbus | assist/sub out: Philipp Lienhart SC Freiburg

47' 47' Normal Goal | Lucas Höler | assist/sub out: Matthias Ginter SC Freiburg

55' 55' Yellow Card | Nikolas Veratschnig FSV Mainz 05

62' 62' Substitution 1 | Sota Kawasaki | assist/sub out: Nadiem Amiri FSV Mainz 05

62' 62' Substitution 2 | Nikolas Veratschnig | assist/sub out: Silvan Widmer FSV Mainz 05

Metric FSV Mainz 05 SC Freiburg SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.55 0.56 final

Zablokirovannye udary 1 3 final

Shots off target 6 2 final

Shots on target 3 3 final

Udary vsego 10 8 final

Fouls soversheno 10 13 final

Zheltye kartochki 1 3 final

Offsides 3 2 final

FSV Mainz 05 #1 N. Atubolu, #7 D. Scherhant, #8 M. Eggestein, #9 L. Holer, #17 L. Kubler, #22 Cyriaque Irié, #28 M. Ginter, #30 C. Gunter, #31 Igor Matanović, #43 B. Ogbus, #44 J. Manzambi

SC Freiburg #2 Phillipp Mwene, #4 S. Posch, #6 Kaishu Sano, #8 P. Nebel, #20 P. Tietz, #21 D. da Costa, #22 N. Veratschnig, #23 S. Becker, #24 S. Kawasaki, #31 D. Kohr, #33 D. Batz

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Caci SC Freiburg Dribling popytki 2

A. Caci SC Freiburg Edinoborstva vyigrano 2

A. Caci SC Freiburg Seyvy 0

A. Caci SC Freiburg football.player.minutes_played 20

A. Caci SC Freiburg Klyuchevye pasy 12

A. Caci SC Freiburg Reyting (staryy) 6.6

A. Caci SC Freiburg Bloki 2

A. Caci SC Freiburg Otbory vsego 10

A. Sieb SC Freiburg Dribling popytki 1

A. Sieb SC Freiburg Edinoborstva vyigrano 2

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

FSV Mainz 05 41.9% 39.8% market and model agree

Draw 28.6% 27.6% draw risk

SC Freiburg 29.5% 32.6%

xG - 1.27 : 1.12

Total 2.5 Over 37.8% - Under 62.2%

Model check - - Difference 0.03

Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 39.8% / 27.6% / 32.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,516 / 1,495 FSV Mainz 05 / SC Freiburg

RD 76 / 76 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 3.28 market consensus · no value · model 32.6%

X 3.26 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 2.28 market consensus · no value · model 39.8%

Double chance

X2 1.62 market consensus · no value · model 60.2%

12 1.32 market consensus · no value · model 72.4%

1X 1.33 market consensus · no value · model 67.4%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.65 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.29 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 3.19 market consensus · line only

2 +1 5.63 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.83 market consensus · no value · model 37.8%

Under 2.5 2.00 market consensus · value +24.4% · model 62.2%

Both teams to score

No 2.19 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.63 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	2.24 44.6%	2.28 43.9%	2.36 42.4%	2.25 44.4%	2.27 44.1%	2.30 43.5%
X	3.20 31.3%	3.30 30.3%	3.35 29.9%	3.10 32.3%	3.25 30.8%	3.25 30.8%
	3.20 31.3%	3.30 30.3%	3.41 29.3%	3.40 29.4%	3.30 30.3%	3.40 29.4%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	2.20 45.5%	2.30 43.5%	2.19 45.7%	2.10 47.6%	2.25 44.4%	2.20 45.5%	2.20 45.5%	2.16 46.3%	2.18 45.9%
yes	1.62 61.7%	1.63 61.4%	1.62 61.7%	1.67 59.9%	1.60 62.5%	1.62 61.7%	1.60 62.5%	1.62 61.7%	1.62 61.7%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor
draw_away	1.62 61.7%	1.66 60.2%	1.57 63.7%	1.65 60.6%	1.57 63.7%	1.57 63.7%
home_away	1.28 78.1%	1.38 72.5%	1.36 73.5%	1.32 75.8%	1.25 80.0%	1.29 77.5%
home_draw	1.33 75.2%	1.36 73.5%	1.30 76.9%	1.36 73.5%	1.33 75.2%	1.33 75.2%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.05 95.2%	—	1.01 99.0%
Over 0.75	—	—	1.02 98.0%
Over 1.0	—	—	1.03 97.1%
Over 1.25	—	—	1.13 88.5%
Over 1.5	1.28 78.1%	—	1.23 81.3%
Over 1.75	—	—	1.29 77.5%
Over 2.5	1.83 54.6%	1.83 54.6%	—
Over 3.5	3.00 33.3%	—	—
Over 4.5	5.50 18.2%	—	—
Under 0.5	9.00 11.1%	—	—
Under 1.5	3.65 27.4%	—	—
Under 2.5	1.95 51.3%	2.07 48.3%	—
Under 3.5	1.38 72.5%	—	—
Under 4.5	1.14 87.7%	—	—

Match center

FSV Mainz 05

Founded 1905

SC Freiburg

Founded 1904

Match center

FSV Mainz 05

NA N. Amiri Heel Injury

LJ Lee Jae-Sung Toe Injury

SC Freiburg

DK D. Kyereh Lacking Match Fitness

PO P. Osterhage Knee Injury

FSV Mainz 05 Founded: 1905

SC Freiburg Founded: 1904

Match center

FSV Mainz 05

W W W D D

04.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

FSV Mainz 05 2:1 1899 Hoffenheim

22.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

FSV Mainz 05 2:1 Eintracht Frankfurt

15.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

FSV Mainz 05 2:0 Werder Bremen

07.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

FSV Mainz 05 2:2 VfB Stuttgart

28.02 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

FSV Mainz 05 1:1 Bayer Leverkusen

3 Wins

2 Draws

0 Losses

1.8 Scored

1.0 Conceded

11 Points

SC Freiburg

L W L D L

04.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

SC Freiburg 2:3 Bavariya

22.03 16:30 UTC Bundesliga

SC Freiburg 2:1 FC St. Pauli

15.03 16:30 UTC Bundesliga

SC Freiburg 0:1 Union Berlin

07.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

SC Freiburg 3:3 Bayer Leverkusen

01.03 16:30 UTC Bundesliga

SC Freiburg 0:2 Eintracht Frankfurt

1 Wins

1 Draws

3 Losses

1.4 Scored

2.0 Conceded

4 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyFSV Mainz 05 - SC Freiburg

FSV Mainz 05

1 matches total

SC Freiburg

FSV Mainz 05: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

SC Freiburg: 1 (100%)

Biggest win Frayburg 0:4 (30.11 18:30 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 4 goals (0:4, 30.11 18:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0

0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

30.11 18:30 UTC

Bundesliga

Maynts

0:4

Frayburg

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.