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Bundesliga
Bundesliga Germany
10.05.2026 17:30 UTC Match prediction
10.05.2026 17:30 UTC
Finished

Bundesliga

Germany

FSV Mainz 05 - Union Berlin

Germany Football
Stadium MEWA ARENA
FSV Mainz 05
FSV Mainz 05
1 : 3
Finished
Union Berlin
Union Berlin

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction FSV Mainz 05 - Union Berlin May 10, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like FSV Mainz 05.

Line favourite market consensus: FSV Mainz 05. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.71 / X 4.00 / 2 4.55
  • 1X2 market: FSV Mainz 05 55.5% / X 23.7% / Union Berlin 20.8%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 57.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.5%
1 55.5%
X 23.7%
2 20.8%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.4%
Over 2.5 57.8%
Under 2.5 42.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 10.05.2026 17:30 UTC
Match center

FSV Mainz 05 - Union Berlin

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.19 Fonbet · line only
X 4.60 Fonbet · line only
1 1.80 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 2.13 market consensus · line only
12 1.23 market consensus · line only
1X 1.20 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.16 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.67 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 4.16 market consensus · line only
2 +1 8.40 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.64 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.25 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.19 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.63 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
1.66 60.2% 1.76 56.8% 1.67 59.9% 1.70 58.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.67 59.9%
X 3.90 25.6% 4.22 23.7% 3.80 26.3% 4.10 24.4% 4.10 24.4% 3.90 25.6%
4.70 21.3% 4.78 20.9% 4.40 22.7% 4.33 23.1% 4.75 21.1% 4.60 21.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 2.15 46.5% 2.20 45.5% 2.20 45.5% 2.10 47.6% 2.20 45.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.20 45.5% 2.17 46.1% 2.25 44.4%
yes 1.65 60.6% 1.61 62.1% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.62 61.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.60 62.5% 1.61 62.1% 1.58 63.3%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 2.15 46.5% 2.19 45.7% 2.10 47.6% 2.10 47.6% 2.15 46.5% 2.10 47.6%
home_away 1.20 83.3% 1.27 78.7% 1.25 80.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.24 80.7% 1.20 83.3%
home_draw 1.18 84.8% 1.23 81.3% 1.20 83.3% 1.20 83.3% 1.22 82.0% 1.14 87.7%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.04 96.2% 1.03 97.1%
Over 0.75 — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 — 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.25 — 1.08 92.6%
Over 1.5 1.20 83.3% 1.16 86.2%
Over 1.75 — 1.22 82.0%
Over 2.0 — 1.27 78.7%
Over 2.25 — 1.52 65.8%
Over 2.5 1.65 60.6% —
Over 3.5 2.62 38.2% —
Over 4.5 4.75 21.1% —
Under 0.5 10.00 10.0% —
Under 1.5 4.33 23.1% —
Under 2.5 2.20 45.5% —
Under 3.5 1.48 67.6% —
Under 4.5 1.18 84.8% —
Match center
FSV Mainz 05
W L D L W
03.05 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
FSV Mainz 05 2:1 FC St. PauliFC St. Pauli
25.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
FSV Mainz 05 3:4 BavariyaBavariya
19.04 17:30 UTC Bundesliga
FSV Mainz 05 1:1 Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach
12.04 17:30 UTC Bundesliga
FSV Mainz 05 0:1 FrayburgFrayburg
04.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
FSV Mainz 05 2:1 1899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
1.6 Scored
1.6 Conceded
7 Points
Union Berlin
D L L L D
02.05 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Union Berlin 2:2 1. FC Köln1. FC Köln
24.04 18:30 UTC Bundesliga
Union Berlin 1:3 RB LeipzigRB Leipzig
18.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Union Berlin 1:2 VfL WolfsburgVfL Wolfsburg
11.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Union Berlin 1:3 1. FC Heidenheim1. FC Heidenheim
05.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Union Berlin 1:1 FC St. PauliFC St. Pauli
0 Wins
2 Draws
3 Losses
1.2 Scored
2.2 Conceded
2 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyFSV Mainz 05 - Union Berlin

FSV Mainz 05
1 matches total
Union Berlin
FSV Mainz 05: 0 (0%)
Draws:1 (100%)
Union Berlin: 0 (0%)
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 4 goals (2:2, 10.01 14:30 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 2:2 (10.01 14:30 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

10.01 14:30 UTC Bundesliga
Maynts
2:2
Union Berlin