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Bundesliga
Bundesliga Germany
25.04.2026 16:30 UTC Match prediction
25.04.2026 16:30 UTC
Finished

Bundesliga

Germany

Hamburger SV - 1899 Hoffenheim

Germany Football
Stadium Volksparkstadion
Capacity 57 030
Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
1 : 2
Finished
1899 Hoffenheim
1899 Hoffenheim
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 1899 Hoffenheim — 57%

1 · Hamburger SV19.8%
X · draw22.9%
2 · 1899 Hoffenheim ✓ Pick57.3%

Model estimate: win Hamburger SV 19.8%, draw 22.9%, win 1899 Hoffenheim 57.3%. Model favourite — 1899 Hoffenheim.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Hamburger SV - 1899 Hoffenheim April 25, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like 1899 Hoffenheim.

Strongest: 1899 Hoffenheim - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.89 / X 3.99 / 2 1.80
  • 1X2 market: Hamburger SV 24.2% / X 23.6% / 1899 Hoffenheim 52.2%
  • Glicko: Hamburger SV 19.8% / X 22.9% / 1899 Hoffenheim 57.3%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 38.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.3%
1 24.2%
X 23.6%
2 ✓ Pick 52.3%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.3%
Over 2.5 62.7%
Under 2.5 37.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome
Agreement 8/8
Confidence 55.0%
Total Under 2.5
Score 0:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 25.04.2026 16:30 UTC
Stadium Volksparkstadion (Hamburg)
Capacity 57,030

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model 1899 Hoffenheim 57%
💹 Market 1899 Hoffenheim 5223%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Hamburger SV - 1899 Hoffenheim

Hamburger SV: Win 4.00 Hamburger SV: Draw 4.00 1899 Hoffenheim Win: 1.75 Obschiy total golov bolshe 3.5: 2.30 Obschiy total golov menshe 3.5: 1.62 Individualnyy total golov Hamburger SV bolshe 1.5: 2.50 Individualnyy total golov Hamburger SV menshe 1.5: 1.50 Individualnyy …

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:2
Events 19
Statistics 24
Lineups 39
min Event Player Team
8' 8' Yellow Card | R. Hranáč 1899 Hoffenheim
18' 18' Normal Goal | F. Asllani | assist/sub out: V. Coufal 1899 Hoffenheim
32' 32' Yellow Card | O. Baumann Bart Verbruggen 1899 Hoffenheim
34' 34' Penalty | R. Glatzel Hamburger SV
45' 45' Normal Goal | T. Lemperle | assist/sub out: A. Hajdari 1899 Hoffenheim
46' 46' Substitution 1 | R. Hranáč | assist/sub out: Bernardo 1899 Hoffenheim
49' 49' Yellow Card | N. Remberg Hamburger SV
64' 64' Substitution 2 | F. Asllani | assist/sub out: G. Prömel 1899 Hoffenheim
Metric Hamburger SV 1899 Hoffenheim SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.37 1.45 final
Zablokirovannye udary 3 3 final
Shots off target 5 6 final
Shots on target 4 6 final
Udary vsego 12 15 final
Fouls soversheno 11 18 final
Zheltye kartochki 2 4 final
Offsides 1 1 final
Hamburger SV #1 O. Baumann, #2 R. Hranáč, #5 O. Kabak, #7 L. Avdullahu, #11 F. Asllani, #18 W. Burger, #19 T. Lemperle, #21 A. Hajdari, #27 Andrej Kramarić, #29 B. Touré, #34 V. Coufal
1899 Hoffenheim #1 Daniel Heuer Fernandes, #2 W. Mikelbrencis, #9 R. Glatzel, #11 R. Königsdörffer, #17 W. Omari, #18 B. Jatta, #20 Fábio Vieira, #21 N. Remberg, #23 A. Grønbæk, #24 N. Capaldo, #25 J. Torunarigha
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Grønbæk 1899 Hoffenheim football.player.assists 0
A. Grønbæk 1899 Hoffenheim Dribling popytki 6
A. Grønbæk 1899 Hoffenheim Edinoborstva vsego 2
A. Grønbæk 1899 Hoffenheim Edinoborstva vyigrano 8
A. Grønbæk 1899 Hoffenheim Fouls soversheno 2
A. Grønbæk 1899 Hoffenheim Seyvy 0
A. Grønbæk 1899 Hoffenheim football.player.minutes_played 88
A. Grønbæk 1899 Hoffenheim Tochnost pasov % 1
A. Grønbæk 1899 Hoffenheim Klyuchevye pasy 27
A. Grønbæk 1899 Hoffenheim Pasy vsego 1
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Hamburger SV 24.0% 19.8%
Draw 23.2% 22.9% draw risk
1899 Hoffenheim 52.8% 57.3% market and model agree
xG - 0.96 : 1.81
Total 2.5 Over 38.9% - Under 61.1%
Model check - - Difference 0.04
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.04

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 19.8% / 22.9% / 57.3% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,436 / 1,587 Hamburger SV / 1899 Hoffenheim
RD 77 / 76 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.80 market consensus · weak value +3.1% · model 57.3%
X 3.99 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 3.89 market consensus · no value · model 19.8%
Double chance
X2 1.24 market consensus · no value · model 80.2%
12 1.23 market consensus · no value · model 77.1%
1X 1.99 market consensus · no value · model 42.8%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.26 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.07 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.77 market consensus · line only
2 +1 2.32 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.50 market consensus · no value · model 38.9%
Under 2.5 2.52 market consensus · weak value +53.9% · model 61.1%
Both teams to score
No 2.54 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.47 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
3.90 25.6% 4.11 24.3% 3.70 27.0% 4.00 25.0% 3.90 25.6% 4.00 25.0%
X 4.00 25.0% 4.22 23.7% 3.80 26.3% 4.00 25.0% 4.20 23.8% 4.00 25.0%
1.77 56.5% 1.87 53.5% 1.80 55.6% 1.75 57.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 2.50 40.0% 2.50 40.0% 2.63 38.0% 2.50 40.0% 2.47 40.5% 2.63 38.0% 2.50 40.0% 2.46 40.7% 2.55 39.2%
yes 1.50 66.7% 1.48 67.6% 1.44 69.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.50 66.7% 1.44 69.4% 1.45 69.0% 1.48 67.6% 1.47 68.0%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.25 80.0% 1.28 78.1% 1.25 80.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.28 78.1% 1.20 83.3%
home_away 1.18 84.8% 1.27 78.7% 1.25 80.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.23 81.3% 1.20 83.3%
home_draw 2.00 50.0% 2.04 49.0% 1.95 51.3% 2.00 50.0% 2.05 48.8% 1.91 52.4%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.0 — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.25 — 1.07 93.5%
Over 1.5 1.15 87.0% 1.11 90.1%
Over 1.75 — 1.13 88.5%
Over 2.0 — 1.17 85.5%
Over 2.25 — 1.32 75.8%
Over 2.5 1.50 66.7% 1.47 68.0%
Over 3.5 2.25 44.4% —
Over 4.5 3.80 26.3% —
Over 5.5 7.00 14.3% —
Under 1.5 5.25 19.1% —
Under 2.5 2.55 39.2% —
Under 3.5 1.62 61.7% —
Under 4.5 1.25 80.0% —
Under 5.5 1.09 91.7% —
Match center
Hamburger SV
Founded 1887
1899 Hoffenheim
Founded 1899
Match center
Hamburger SV
L L D L D
18.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Hamburger SV 1:3 Werder BremenWerder Bremen
12.04 15:30 UTC Bundesliga
Hamburger SV 0:4 VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart
04.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Hamburger SV 1:1 FC AugsburgFC Augsburg
21.03 17:30 UTC Bundesliga
Hamburger SV 2:3 Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
14.03 17:30 UTC Bundesliga
Hamburger SV 1:1 1. FC Köln1. FC Köln
0 Wins
2 Draws
3 Losses
1.0 Scored
2.4 Conceded
2 Points
1899 Hoffenheim
W D L L D
18.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
1899 Hoffenheim 2:1 Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
10.04 18:30 UTC Bundesliga
1899 Hoffenheim 2:2 FC AugsburgFC Augsburg
04.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
1899 Hoffenheim 1:2 MayntsMaynts
20.03 19:30 UTC Bundesliga
1899 Hoffenheim 0:5 RB LeipzigRB Leipzig
14.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga
1899 Hoffenheim 1:1 VfL WolfsburgVfL Wolfsburg
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
1.2 Scored
2.2 Conceded
5 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyHamburger SV - 1899 Hoffenheim

Hamburger SV
1 matches total
1899 Hoffenheim
Hamburger SV: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
1899 Hoffenheim: 1 (100%)
Biggest win 1899 Hoffenheim 1:4 (13.12 14:30 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 5 goals (1:4, 13.12 14:30 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 4
4 Goals conceded 1

Match history

13.12 14:30 UTC Bundesliga
Hamburger SV
1:4
1899 Hoffenheim
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.