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Bundesliga Germany

04.03.2026 19:30 UTC Match prediction

04.03.2026 19:30 UTC

Finished

Bundesliga

Hamburger SV - Bayer Leverkusen

Germany Football

Hamburger SV

0 : 1

Finished

Bayer Leverkusen

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Hamburger SV - Bayer Leverkusen March 4, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Bayer Leverkusen.

Line favourite market consensus: Bayer Leverkusen. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.79 / X 3.62 / 2 1.95
1X2 market: Hamburger SV 25.0% / X 26.2% / Bayer Leverkusen 48.7%
Total 2.5: over probability 55.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.3%

1 25.1%

X 26.2%

2 48.7%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.8%

Over 2.5 55.2%

Under 2.5 44.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 04.03.2026 19:30 UTC

Match center

Hamburger SV - Bayer Leverkusen

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 0 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.95 market consensus · line only

X 3.63 market consensus · line only

1 3.80 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 1.28 market consensus · line only

12 1.28 market consensus · line only

1X 1.85 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.30 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.07 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 1.94 market consensus · line only

2 +1 2.71 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.73 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 2.13 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 2.24 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.61 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	3.94 25.4%
X	3.76 26.6%
	1.96 51.0%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	3.75 26.7%	3.85 26.0%	3.96 25.3%	3.60 27.8%	3.80 26.3%	3.85 26.0%
X	3.60 27.8%	3.70 27.0%	3.81 26.3%	3.40 29.4%	3.70 27.0%	3.65 27.4%
	1.90 52.6%	1.96 51.0%	2.00 50.0%	1.95 51.3%	1.91 52.4%	1.93 51.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	Marathonbet	Pinnacle
no	2.20 45.5%	2.31 43.3%	2.22 45.1%	2.20 45.5%	2.20 45.5%	2.20 45.5%	2.25 44.4%	2.19 45.7%	2.33 42.9%
yes	1.62 61.7%	1.62 61.7%	1.60 62.5%	1.62 61.7%	1.62 61.7%	1.62 61.7%	1.60 62.5%	1.60 62.5%	1.65 60.6%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.25 80.0%	1.29 77.5%	1.30 76.9%	1.28 78.1%	1.29 77.5%	1.22 82.0%
home_away	1.22 82.0%	1.31 76.3%	1.30 76.9%	1.28 78.1%	1.27 78.7%	1.22 82.0%
home_draw	1.85 54.1%	1.90 52.6%	1.75 57.1%	1.80 55.6%	1.90 52.6%	1.83 54.6%

Match center

Hamburger SV

L D W W D

01.03 18:30 UTC Bundesliga

Hamburger SV 1:2 RB Leipzig

20.02 19:30 UTC Bundesliga

Hamburger SV 1:1 Maynts

14.02 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Hamburger SV 3:2 Union Berlin

07.02 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Hamburger SV 2:0 1. FC Heidenheim

31.01 17:30 UTC Bundesliga

Hamburger SV 2:2 Bavariya

2 Wins

2 Draws

1 Losses

1.8 Scored

1.4 Conceded

8 Points

Bayer Leverkusen

D L W D W

28.02 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen 1:1 Maynts

21.02 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen 0:1 Union Berlin

14.02 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen 4:0 FC St. Pauli

07.02 17:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen 1:1 Borussia Mönchengladbach

31.01 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen 3:1 Eintracht Frankfurt

2 Wins

2 Draws

1 Losses

1.8 Scored

0.8 Conceded

8 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyHamburger SV - Bayer Leverkusen

Hamburger SV

0 matches total

Bayer Leverkusen

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Hamburger SV - Bayer Leverkusen

AI match prediction Hamburger SV - Bayer Leverkusen March 4, 2026

Fair probability (no margin)

Buy the full AI analysis

Hamburger SV - Bayer Leverkusen

What data is collected and where it is shown

Match markets

Market 1

Match Winner

Both teams to score

Double chance

Match history