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Bundesliga
Bundesliga Germany
30.11.2025 14:30 UTC
Finished

Bundesliga

Germany

Hamburger SV - VfB Stuttgart

Germany Football
Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
2 : 1
Finished
VfB Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Hamburger SV - VfB Stuttgart November 30, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like VfB Stuttgart.

Line favourite market consensus: VfB Stuttgart. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.13 / X 3.72 / 2 2.15
  • 1X2 market: Hamburger SV 30.4% / X 25.6% / VfB Stuttgart 44.1%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 61.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.3%
1 30.3%
X 25.5%
2 44.2%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.5%
Over 2.5 61.4%
Under 2.5 38.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 30.11.2025 14:30 UTC
Match center

Hamburger SV - VfB Stuttgart

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.16 market consensus · line only
X 3.73 market consensus · line only
1 3.14 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.37 market consensus · line only
12 1.27 market consensus · line only
1X 1.71 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.38 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.14 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.12 market consensus · line only
2 +1 3.06 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.53 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.43 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.60 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.46 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
3.30 30.3%
X 3.79 26.4%
2.17 46.1%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
3.10 32.3% 3.20 31.3% 3.25 30.8% 3.00 33.3% 3.10 32.3% 3.05 32.8%
X 3.70 27.0% 3.80 26.3% 3.84 26.0% 3.50 28.6% 3.75 26.7% 3.75 26.7%
2.15 46.5% 2.14 46.7% 2.24 44.6% 2.15 46.5% 2.15 46.5% 2.18 45.9%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 2.55 39.2% 2.65 37.7% 2.53 39.5% 2.63 38.0% 2.50 40.0% 2.57 38.9% 2.63 38.0% 2.49 40.2% 2.74 36.5%
yes 1.45 69.0% 1.49 67.1% 1.47 68.0% 1.44 69.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.47 68.0% 1.44 69.4% 1.47 68.0% 1.49 67.1%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.36 73.5% 1.39 71.9% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.40 71.4% 1.40 71.4%
home_away 1.22 82.0% 1.31 76.3% 1.25 80.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.27 78.7% 1.31 76.3%
home_draw 1.67 59.9% 1.73 57.8% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.70 58.8% 1.74 57.5%
Match center
Hamburger SV
L D L L L
22.11 14:30 UTC Bundesliga
Hamburger SV 0:1 FC AugsburgFC Augsburg
08.11 14:30 UTC Bundesliga
Hamburger SV 1:1 Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
02.11 14:30 UTC Bundesliga
Hamburger SV 1:4 1. FC Köln1. FC Köln
25.10 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Hamburger SV 0:1 VfL WolfsburgVfL Wolfsburg
18.10 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Hamburger SV 1:2 RB LeipzigRB Leipzig
0 Wins
1 Draws
4 Losses
0.6 Scored
1.8 Conceded
1 Points
VfB Stuttgart
D W L W W
22.11 14:30 UTC Bundesliga
VfB Stuttgart 3:3 Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
09.11 16:30 UTC Bundesliga
VfB Stuttgart 3:2 FC AugsburgFC Augsburg
01.11 14:30 UTC Bundesliga
VfB Stuttgart 1:3 RB LeipzigRB Leipzig
26.10 16:30 UTC Bundesliga
VfB Stuttgart 2:1 MayntsMaynts
18.10 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
VfB Stuttgart 3:0 VfL WolfsburgVfL Wolfsburg
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
2.4 Scored
1.8 Conceded
10 Points