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Bundesliga
Bundesliga Austria
05.04.2026 15:00 UTC Match prediction
05.04.2026 15:00 UTC
Finished

Bundesliga

Austria

Rapid Vienna - Sturm Graz

Austria Football
Stadium Alyants
Rapid Vienna
Rapid Vienna
0 : 2
Finished
Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Sturm Graz — 37%

1 · Rapid Vienna35.2%
X · draw27.5%
2 · Sturm Graz37.2%

Model estimate: win Rapid Vienna 35.2%, draw 27.5%, win Sturm Graz 37.2%. Model favourite — Sturm Graz.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Rapid Vienna - Sturm Graz April 5, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Rapid Vienna.

Line favourite market consensus: Rapid Vienna. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.45 / X 3.29 / 2 2.75
  • 1X2 market: Rapid Vienna 37.9% / X 28.3% / Sturm Graz 33.8%
  • Glicko: Rapid Vienna 35.2% / X 27.5% / Sturm Graz 37.2%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 13.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.6%
1 37.9%
X 28.3%
2 33.8%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.5%
Over 2.5 49.6%
Under 2.5 50.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: X

Main outcome X
Agreement 3/4
Confidence 27.4%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:1

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center
Start 05.04.2026 15:00 UTC
Stadium Alyants (Vena)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Sturm Graz 37%
💹 Market Rapid Vienna 3787%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Rapid Vienna - Sturm Graz

Rapid Vienna: Win 2.20 Rapid Vienna: Draw 3.25 Sturm Graz Win: 3.30 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.00 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.80 Individualnyy total golov Rapid Vienna bolshe 1.5: 2.20 Individualnyy total golov Rapid Vienna menshe 1.5: 1.62 Individualnyy total…

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:2
Events 19
Statistics 24
Lineups 25
min Event Player Team
13' 13' Normal Goal | A. Vallci B. Traoré Sturm Graz
34' 34' Yellow Card Sturm Graz
34' 34' Yellow Card | B. Bolla Rapid Vienna
36' 36' Yellow Card | J. Hodl Sturm Graz
52' 52' Normal Goal | S. Jatta Sturm Graz
56' 56' Yellow Card | T. Gulliksen Rapid Vienna
57' 57' Substitution 3 | T. Gulliksen | assist/sub out: P. Dahl Rapid Vienna
59' 59' Substitution 2 | J. Gazibegovic | assist/sub out: A. Malic K. Bevis Sturm Graz
Metric Rapid Vienna Sturm Graz SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.31 1.94 final
Zablokirovannye udary 1 6 final
Shots off target 4 3 final
Shots on target 0 7 final
Udary vsego 5 16 final
Fouls soversheno 10 14 final
Zheltye kartochki 4 4 final
Offsides 2 1 final
Rapid Vienna #4 J. Gorenc Stankovič, #8 F. Rózga, #15 G. Mamageishvili, #20 S. Jatta, #22 J. Gazibegović, #43 Jacob Peter Hödl
Sturm Graz #1 N. Hedl, #18 M. Seidl, #20 K. Ahoussou, #29 R. Amané, #55 N. Cvetković, #77 B. Bolla, #90 J. Antiste
Player Team Metric SStats
B. Bolla Sturm Graz football.player.assists 0
B. Bolla Sturm Graz Dribling popytki 4
B. Bolla Sturm Graz Dribling uspeshno 3
B. Bolla Sturm Graz Edinoborstva vyigrano 8
B. Bolla Sturm Graz Fouls soversheno 2
B. Bolla Sturm Graz Fouls na igroke 2
B. Bolla Sturm Graz Seyvy 0
B. Bolla Sturm Graz football.player.minutes_played 90
B. Bolla Sturm Graz Klyuchevye pasy 61
B. Bolla Sturm Graz Reyting (staryy) 6.9
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Rapid Vienna 38.8% 35.2% market favourite
Draw 27.7% 27.5% draw risk
Sturm Graz 33.5% 37.2% Glicko contrarian
xG - 1.19 : 1.23
Total 2.5 Over 13.6% - Under 86.4%
Model check - - Difference 0.04
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.04

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 35.2% / 27.5% / 37.2% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,550 / 1,576 Rapid Vienna / Sturm Graz
RD 79 / 79 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.75 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 37.2%
X 3.29 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.45 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 35.2%
Double chance
X2 1.52 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 64.8%
12 1.31 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 72.5%
1X 1.43 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 62.8%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.55 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.22 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.77 market consensus · line only
2 +1 4.72 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.91 market consensus · no value · model 13.6%
Under 2.5 1.88 market consensus · weak value +62.5% · model 86.4%
Both teams to score
No 2.07 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.68 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
2.50 40.0% 2.42 41.3% 2.45 40.8% 2.45 40.8% 2.47 40.5% 2.40 41.7%
X 3.35 29.9% 3.40 29.4% 3.24 30.9% 3.25 30.8% 3.20 31.3% 3.50 28.6%
2.70 37.0% 2.68 37.3% 2.82 35.5% 2.70 37.0% 2.82 35.5% 2.63 38.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Marathonbet William Hill
no 2.05 48.8% 2.10 47.6% 2.08 48.1% 2.05 48.8% 2.07 48.3% 2.05 48.8% 2.10 47.6%
yes 1.67 59.9% 1.71 58.5% 1.67 59.9% 1.70 58.8% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet
draw_away 1.50 66.7% 1.51 66.2% 1.53 65.4% 1.57 63.7% 1.53 65.4% 1.51 66.2%
home_away 1.25 80.0% 1.32 75.8% 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2% 1.30 76.9% 1.32 75.8%
home_draw 1.45 69.0% 1.40 71.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.45 69.0% 1.44 69.4% 1.40 71.4%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.05 95.2% — 1.01 99.0%
Over 0.75 — — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.25 — — 1.14 87.7%
Over 1.5 1.30 76.9% — 1.25 80.0%
Over 1.75 — — 1.32 75.8%
Over 2.5 1.90 52.6% 1.95 51.3% —
Over 3.5 3.25 30.8% — —
Over 4.5 6.25 16.0% — —
Under 0.5 9.00 11.1% — —
Under 1.5 3.45 29.0% — —
Under 2.5 1.85 54.1% 1.93 51.8% —
Under 3.5 1.33 75.2% — —
Under 4.5 1.11 90.1% — —
Match center
Rapid Vienna
Founded 1899
Sturm Graz
Founded 1909
Match center

Full head-to-head historyRapid Vienna - Sturm Graz

Rapid Vienna
0 matches total
Sturm Graz
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.