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Bundesliga Germany

21.02.2026 17:30 UTC Match prediction

21.02.2026 17:30 UTC

Finished

Bundesliga

RB Leipzig - Borussia Dortmund

Germany Football

RB Leipzig

2 : 2

Finished

Borussia Dortmund

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction RB Leipzig - Borussia Dortmund February 21, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like RB Leipzig.

Line favourite market consensus: RB Leipzig. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.08 / X 3.90 / 2 3.28
1X2 market: RB Leipzig 46.1% / X 24.6% / Borussia Dortmund 29.3%
Total 2.5: over probability 63.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.2%

1 46.1%

X 24.6%

2 29.3%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.5%

Over 2.5 63.5%

Under 2.5 36.5%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 21.02.2026 17:30 UTC

Match center

RB Leipzig - Borussia Dortmund

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 3.29 market consensus · line only

X 3.90 market consensus · line only

1 2.08 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 1.79 market consensus · line only

12 1.27 market consensus · line only

1X 1.36 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.83 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.40 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 3.21 market consensus · line only

2 +1 5.53 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.48 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 2.57 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 2.70 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.44 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	2.09 47.9%
X	3.96 25.3%
	3.35 29.9%

Match Winner

Outcome	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Marathonbet	Pinnacle	SStats Consensus
	2.08 48.1%	2.13 47.0%	2.05 48.8%	2.08 48.1%	2.09 47.9%	2.09 47.9%
X	3.95 25.3%	4.00 25.0%	3.90 25.6%	3.90 25.6%	3.96 25.3%	3.96 25.3%
	3.25 30.8%	3.38 29.6%	3.20 31.3%	3.30 30.3%	3.35 29.9%	3.35 29.9%

Both teams to score

Outcome	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Marathonbet	Pinnacle	William Hill
no	2.84 35.2%	2.69 37.2%	2.62 38.2%	2.65 37.7%	2.80 35.7%	2.62 38.2%
yes	1.43 69.9%	1.42 70.4%	1.44 69.4%	1.42 70.4%	1.48 67.6%	1.44 69.4%

Double chance

Outcome	1xBet	Bet365	Marathonbet	Pinnacle	SStats Consensus	William Hill
draw_away	1.80 55.6%	1.80 55.6%	1.79 55.9%	1.81 55.3%	1.81 55.3%	1.73 57.8%
home_away	1.29 77.5%	1.25 80.0%	1.28 78.1%	1.28 78.1%	1.28 78.1%	1.25 80.0%
home_draw	1.37 73.0%	1.33 75.2%	1.36 73.5%	1.37 73.0%	1.37 73.0%	1.35 74.1%

Match center

RB Leipzig

D W L D W

15.02 16:30 UTC Bundesliga

RB Leipzig 2:2 VfL Wolfsburg

08.02 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

RB Leipzig 2:1 1. FC Köln

31.01 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

RB Leipzig 1:2 Maynts

27.01 19:30 UTC Bundesliga

RB Leipzig 1:1 FC St. Pauli

24.01 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

RB Leipzig 3:0 1. FC Heidenheim

2 Wins

2 Draws

1 Losses

1.8 Scored

1.2 Conceded

8 Points

Borussia Dortmund

W W W W W

13.02 19:30 UTC Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund 4:0 Maynts

07.02 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund 2:1 VfL Wolfsburg

01.02 16:30 UTC Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund 3:2 1. FC Heidenheim

24.01 17:30 UTC Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund 3:0 Union Berlin

17.01 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund 3:2 FC St. Pauli

5 Wins

0 Draws

0 Losses

3.0 Scored

1.0 Conceded

15 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyRB Leipzig - Borussia Dortmund

RB Leipzig

1 matches total

Borussia Dortmund

RB Leipzig: 0 (0%)

Draws:1 (100%)

Borussia Dortmund: 0 (0%)

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 2 goals (1:1, 04.10 13:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (04.10 13:30 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 1

1 Goals conceded 1

Match history

04.10 13:30 UTC

Bundesliga

RB Leipzig

1:1

Borussia Dortmund