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Bundesliga
Bundesliga Germany
31-й тур 24.04.2026 18:30 UTC Match prediction Prediction
24.04.2026 18:30 UTC 31-й тур
Finished

Bundesliga

Germany

RB Leipzig - Union Berlin

Germany Futbol
Stadium Ред Булл Арена
RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig
3 : 1
Finished
Union Berlin
Union Berlin
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 RB Leipzig — 69%

1 · RB Leipzig ✓ Прогноз69.1%
market70%
X · draw19.0%
market18%
2 · Union Berlin11.9%
market11%

Model estimate: win RB Leipzig 69.1%, draw 19.0%, win Union Berlin 11.9%. Model favourite — RB Leipzig.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction RB Leipzig - Union Berlin 24 апреля 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like RB Leipzig.

Strongest: RB Leipzig - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.34 / X 5.20 / 2 8.25
  • 1X2 market: RB Leipzig 70.3% / X 18.2% / Union Berlin 11.5%
  • Glicko: RB Leipzig 69.1% / X 19.0% / Union Berlin 11.9%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 32.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.0%
1 ✓ Прогноз 70.4%
X 18.1%
2 11.4%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.5%
Over 2.5 63.0%
Under 2.5 37.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

Лидер исходов AI: П1

Main outcome П1
Agreement 7/7
Confidence 71.7%
Total ТМ 2.5
Score 1:0

Модели дают единый сигнал. Такие матчи мы помечаем как более сильные.

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Match center
Stadium Лейпциг (Лейпциг, Германия), 47 800 зрителей (102% при вместимости 47 069)
Referee Свен Яблонски (Бремен, Германия)
Start 24.04.2026 18:30 UTC
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model RB Leipzig 69%
💹 Market RB Leipzig 7031%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

RB Leipzig - Union Berlin

Итоговый протокол и результаты встречи РБ Лейпциг - Унион, 24 апреля 2026. Обзор и статистика матча, точный счет. Чемпионат Германии по футболу (Бундеслига) 2025/2026, 31-й тур. РБ Лейпциг - Унион, кто победил, онлайн трансляция матча.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 3:1
Events 16
Statistics 24
Lineups 40
min Event Player Team
22' 22' Normal Goal | Max Finkgräfe RB Leipzig
25' 25' Normal Goal | Rômulo RB Leipzig
31' 31' Substitution 1 | F. Rønnow | assist/sub out: C. Klaus G. Borrelli Union Berlin
34' 34' Yellow Card | C. Baumgartner Joachim Andersen RB Leipzig
59' 59' Substitution 2 | A. Ilić | assist/sub out: Ilyas Ansah Union Berlin
60' 60' Substitution 3 | C. Trimmel | assist/sub out: J. Juranović Union Berlin
60' 60' Substitution 4 | J. Haberer | assist/sub out: A. Kemlein Union Berlin
63' 63' Normal Goal | R. Baku | assist/sub out: Yan Diomande RB Leipzig
Metric RB Leipzig Union Berlin SStats
Ожидаемые голы (xG) 4.49 0.19 final
Заблокированные удары 4 1 final
Удары мимо 6 3 final
Удары в створ 10 1 final
Удары всего 20 5 final
Фолы совершено 6 10 final
Желтые карточки 1 1 final
Офсайды 1 3 final
RB Leipzig #4 W. Orbán, #5 E. Bitshiabu, #7 A. Nusa, #14 C. Baumgartner, #17 R. Baku, #20 A. Ouédraogo, #24 X. Schlager, #26 M. Vandevoordt, #35 Max Finkgräfe, #40 Rômulo, #49 Y. Diomande
Union Berlin #1 F. Rønnow, #4 Diogo Leite, #5 D. Doekhi, #7 O. Burke, #8 Rani Khedira, #13 A. Schäfer, #14 L. Querfeld, #15 T. Rothe, #19 J. Haberer, #23 A. Ilić, #28 C. Trimmel
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Maksimović RB Leipzig Сейвы 0
A. Nusa RB Leipzig football.player.assists 0
A. Nusa RB Leipzig Дриблинг попытки 8
A. Nusa RB Leipzig Дриблинг успешно 5
A. Nusa RB Leipzig Единоборства выиграно 17
A. Nusa RB Leipzig Фолы совершено 3
A. Nusa RB Leipzig Фолы на игроке 4
A. Nusa RB Leipzig Сейвы 0
A. Nusa RB Leipzig football.player.minutes_played 89
A. Nusa RB Leipzig Ключевые пасы 29
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
RB Leipzig 71.6% 69.1% market and model agree
Draw 17.6% 19.0% draw risk
Union Berlin 10.7% 11.9%
xG - 2.11 : 0.74
Total 2.5 Over 32.8% - Under 67.2%
Model check - - Difference 0.03
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 69.1% / 19.0% / 11.9% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,621 / 1,420 RB Leipzig / Union Berlin
RD 75 / 75 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: value не найден

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 8.25 market consensus · no value · model 11.9%
X 5.20 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.34 market consensus · no value · model 69.1%
Double chance
X2 3.18 market consensus · no value · model 30.9%
12 1.15 market consensus · no value · model 81.0%
1X 1.07 market consensus · no value · model 88.1%
Handicap
2 -0.5 3.29 market consensus · line only
2 -1 2.60 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 6.50 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.31 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.49 market consensus · no value · model 32.8%
Under 2.5 2.54 market consensus · weak value +70.7% · model 67.2%
Both teams to score
No 1.98 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.77 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
П1 1.31 76.3% 1.38 72.5% 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2% 1.35 74.1% 1.33 75.2%
Х 5.00 20.0% 5.54 18.1% 4.80 20.8% 5.50 18.2% 5.20 19.2% 5.00 20.0%
П2 9.20 10.9% 8.90 11.2% 7.50 13.3% 8.50 11.8% 8.50 11.8% 9.00 11.1%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 1.95 51.3% 1.97 50.8% 2.05 48.8% 1.95 51.3% 2.00 50.0% 2.05 48.8% 1.90 52.6% 1.95 51.3% 1.97 50.8%
yes 1.80 55.6% 1.76 56.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.75 57.1% 1.73 57.8% 1.80 55.6% 1.76 56.8% 1.76 56.8%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 3.25 30.8% 3.30 30.3% 3.00 33.3% 3.25 30.8% 3.30 30.3% 3.20 31.3%
home_away 1.15 87.0% 1.18 84.8% 1.18 84.8% 1.17 85.5% 1.16 86.2% 1.13 88.5%
home_draw 1.05 95.2% 1.08 92.6% 1.08 92.6% 1.07 93.5% 1.09 91.7% 1.06 94.3%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
ТБ 0.5 — 1.02 98.0%
ТБ 1.0 — 1.02 98.0%
ТБ 1.5 1.17 85.5% 1.11 90.1%
ТБ 1.75 — 1.13 88.5%
ТБ 2.0 — 1.17 85.5%
ТБ 2.25 — 1.32 75.8%
ТБ 2.5 1.50 66.7% 1.46 68.5%
ТБ 2.75 — 1.57 63.7%
ТБ 3.5 2.25 44.4% —
ТБ 4.5 3.85 26.0% —
ТБ 5.5 7.00 14.3% —
ТМ 1.5 5.00 20.0% —
ТМ 2.5 2.55 39.2% —
ТМ 3.5 1.62 61.7% —
ТМ 4.5 1.25 80.0% —
ТМ 5.5 1.09 91.7% —
Match center
RB Leipzig
Founded 2009
Union Berlin
Founded 1966
Match center
RB Leipzig

No home-team absences found in the prematch data.

Union Berlin

No away-team absences found in the prematch data.

Вигго Гебель Леопольд Цингерле Эзехил Банзюзи Сулейман Сани Кастелло Люкеба Давид Раум Травмированные Матео Раб
RB Leipzig Founded: 2009
Union Berlin Founded: 1966
Match center
RB Leipzig
W W W W L
18.04 16:30 UTC Bundesliga
RB Leipzig 3:1 Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt
11.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
RB Leipzig 1:0 Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach
04.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
RB Leipzig 2:1 Werder BremenWerder Bremen
20.03 19:30 UTC Bundesliga
RB Leipzig 5:0 1899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim
15.03 18:30 UTC Bundesliga
RB Leipzig 0:1 VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart
4 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
2.2 Scored
0.6 Conceded
12 Points
Union Berlin
L L D L W
18.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Union Berlin 1:2 VfL WolfsburgVfL Wolfsburg
11.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Union Berlin 1:3 1. FC Heidenheim1. FC Heidenheim
05.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Union Berlin 1:1 FC St. PauliFC St. Pauli
21.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga
Union Berlin 0:4 BavariyaBavariya
15.03 16:30 UTC Bundesliga
Union Berlin 1:0 FrayburgFrayburg
1 Wins
1 Draws
3 Losses
0.8 Scored
2.0 Conceded
4 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyRB Leipzig - Union Berlin

RB Leipzig
2 matches total
Union Berlin
RB Leipzig: 0 (0%)
Draws:1 (50%)
Union Berlin: 1 (50%)
Biggest win Union Berlin 1:3 (12.12 19:30 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 4 goals (1:3, 12.12 19:30 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 0:0 (14.09 13:30 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 3
3 Goals conceded 1

Match history

12.12 19:30 UTC Bundesliga
RB Leipzig
1:3
Union Berlin
14.09 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
RB Leipzig
0:0
Union Berlin
Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1 RB Leipzig
Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket
Team 2 Union Berlin
RB Leipzig Team comparison Union Berlin
30 Игры 30
18 Победы 8
5 Ничьи 8
7 Поражения 14
59 Забито 34
37 Пропущено 52
59 Очки 32
103.61 Атаки 96.1
50.68 Опасные атаки 44.07
0 Голевые моменты 0
15.47 Удары по воротам 11.97
6 Удары в створ 3.77
ждения 2.13 0 Удаления 0.1 Голы Макс Финкгрефе 1:0 22' Ромуло 2:0 25' Ридле Баку Ян Диоманд 3:0 63' Данило Дуки Йосип Юранович 3:1 78' Наказания Кристоф Баумгартнер 35' Диогу Лейте 84'

РБ Лейпциг Унион 30 Игры 30 18 Победы 8 5 Ничьи 8 7 Поражения 14 59 Забито 34 37 Пропущено 52 59 Очки 32 103.61 Атаки 96.1 50.68 Опасные атаки 44.07 0 Голевые моменты 0 15.47 Удары по воротам 11.97 6 Удары в створ 3.77 0 Штанги/перекладины 0 5.37 Угловые 5.07 1.47 Оффсайды 1.7 9.47 Фолы 12.8 53.27 % владения мячом 39.43 1.5 Предупреждения 2.13 0 Удаления 0.1 Голы Макс Финкгрефе 1:0 22' Ромуло 2:0 25' Ридле Баку Ян Диоманд 3:0 63' Данило Дуки Йосип Юранович 3:1 78' Наказания Кристоф Баумгартнер 35' Диогу Лейте 84'