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Bundesliga Germany

14.12.2025 14:30 UTC Match prediction

14.12.2025 14:30 UTC

Finished

Bundesliga

SC Freiburg - Borussia Dortmund

Germany Football

SC Freiburg

1 : 1

Finished

Borussia Dortmund

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction SC Freiburg - Borussia Dortmund December 14, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Borussia Dortmund.

Line favourite market consensus: Borussia Dortmund. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.45 / X 3.34 / 2 2.16
1X2 market: SC Freiburg 27.6% / X 28.5% / Borussia Dortmund 44.0%
Total 2.5: over probability 52.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.2%

1 27.5%

X 28.5%

2 44.0%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.5%

Over 2.5 47.1%

Under 2.5 52.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 14.12.2025 14:30 UTC

Match center

SC Freiburg - Borussia Dortmund

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.16 market consensus · line only

X 3.34 market consensus · line only

1 3.46 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 1.31 market consensus · line only

12 1.33 market consensus · line only

1X 1.72 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.32 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.09 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 2.13 market consensus · line only

2 +1 3.30 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.03 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 1.81 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.98 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.78 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	3.54 28.3%
X	3.40 29.4%
	2.21 45.3%

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	3.40 29.4%	3.35 29.9%	3.60 27.8%	3.30 30.3%	3.40 29.4%	3.50 28.6%
X	3.30 30.3%	3.50 28.6%	3.48 28.7%	3.25 30.8%	3.30 30.3%	3.30 30.3%
	2.15 46.5%	2.19 45.7%	2.22 45.1%	2.10 47.6%	2.15 46.5%	2.18 45.9%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	Marathonbet	Pinnacle
no	2.00 50.0%	2.01 49.8%	1.96 51.0%	1.95 51.3%	1.95 51.3%	2.00 50.0%	2.00 50.0%	1.94 51.6%	2.05 48.8%
yes	1.77 56.5%	1.81 55.3%	1.77 56.5%	1.75 57.1%	1.80 55.6%	1.75 57.1%	1.75 57.1%	1.77 56.5%	1.83 54.6%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Marathonbet
draw_away	1.30 76.9%	1.34 74.6%	1.30 76.9%	1.28 78.1%	1.33 75.2%	1.33 75.2%
home_away	1.28 78.1%	1.36 73.5%	1.33 75.2%	1.30 76.9%	1.32 75.8%	1.35 74.1%
home_draw	1.67 59.9%	1.74 57.5%	1.70 58.8%	1.73 57.8%	1.72 58.1%	1.73 57.8%