Free access Sign in to unlock the full prediction Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.

Bundesliga Germany

34 round 16.05.2026 13:30 UTC Match prediction

16.05.2026 13:30 UTC 34 round

Finished

Bundesliga

SC Freiburg - RB Leipzig

Germany Football

SC Freiburg

4 : 1

Finished

RB Leipzig

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction SC Freiburg - RB Leipzig May 16, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like SC Freiburg.

Line favourite market consensus: SC Freiburg. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.49 / X 3.72 / 2 2.56
1X2 market: SC Freiburg 37.8% / X 25.3% / RB Leipzig 36.9%
Total 2.5: over probability 62.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.1%

1 37.8%

X 25.3%

2 36.8%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.7%

Over 2.5 62.1%

Under 2.5 37.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: SC Freiburg

Main outcome SC Freiburg

Agreement 1/1

Confidence 45.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.

Match center

Stadium Europe-Park (Frayburg-im-Braysgau, Germany), 33 600 zriteley (97% pri vmestimosti 34 700)

Referee Sasha Shtegeman (Niderkassel)

Start 16.05.2026 13:30 UTC

Match center

SC Freiburg - RB Leipzig

Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi Frayburg - RB Leyptsig, 16 maya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. Championship Germany po futbolu (Bundesliga) 2025/2026, 34 round. Frayburg - RB Leyptsig, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 4:1

Events 16

Statistics 22

Lineups 40

min Event Player Team

24' 24' Normal Goal | J. Beste J. Beste SC Freiburg

26' 26' Normal Goal | I. Matanovic Igor Matanović SC Freiburg

33' 33' Normal Goal | A. Ouedraogo | assist/sub out: Y. Diomande A. Ouédraogo RB Leipzig

47' 47' Normal Goal | M. Ginter | assist/sub out: J. Makengo M. Ginter SC Freiburg

60' 60' Substitution 5 | J. Beste | assist/sub out: V. Grifo J. Beste SC Freiburg

60' 60' Substitution 6 | N. Hofler | assist/sub out: L. Kubler N. Hofler SC Freiburg

63' 63' Substitution 3 | B. Henrichs | assist/sub out: R. Baku B. Henrichs RB Leipzig

63' 63' Substitution 4 | B. Gruda | assist/sub out: A. Nusa B. Gruda RB Leipzig

Metric SC Freiburg RB Leipzig SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.41 1.24 final

Zablokirovannye udary 1 3 final

Shots off target 5 5 final

Shots on target 5 6 final

Udary vsego 11 14 final

Fouls soversheno 13 7 final

Zheltye kartochki 0 1 final

Offsides 1 1 final

SC Freiburg #1 N. Atubolu, #7 D. Scherhant, #27 N. Hofler, #31 Igor Matanović, #33 J. Makengo, #3 Philipp Lienhart, #8 M. Eggestein, #44 J. Manzambi, #19 J. Beste, #28 M. Ginter, #29 P. Treu

RB Leipzig #1 P. Gulácsi, #14 C. Baumgartner, #35 Max Finkgräfe, #49 Y. Diomande, #11 C. Harder, #13 N. Seiwald, #23 C. Lukeba, #4 W. Orbán, #10 B. Gruda, #20 A. Ouédraogo, #39 B. Henrichs

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Nusa RB Leipzig football.player.assists 0

A. Nusa RB Leipzig football.player.minutes_played 27

A. Ouédraogo RB Leipzig football.player.assists 0

A. Ouédraogo RB Leipzig football.player.goals 1

A. Ouédraogo RB Leipzig football.player.minutes_played 90

B. Gruda RB Leipzig football.player.assists 0

B. Gruda RB Leipzig football.player.minutes_played 63

B. Henrichs RB Leipzig football.player.assists 0

B. Henrichs RB Leipzig football.player.minutes_played 63

C. Baumgartner RB Leipzig football.player.assists 0

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.56 market consensus · line only

X 3.72 market consensus · line only

1 2.49 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 1.51 market consensus · line only

12 1.26 market consensus · line only

1X 1.49 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.54 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.23 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 2.46 market consensus · line only

2 +1 4.00 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.51 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 2.47 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 2.65 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.43 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	2.48 40.3%	2.61 38.3%	2.40 41.7%	2.45 40.8%	2.47 40.5%	2.55 39.2%
X	3.80 26.3%	3.84 26.0%	3.50 28.6%	3.80 26.3%	3.90 25.6%	3.60 27.8%
	2.48 40.3%	2.68 37.3%	2.50 40.0%	2.55 39.2%	2.57 38.9%	2.50 40.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	2.70 37.0%	2.62 38.2%	2.70 37.0%	2.62 38.2%	2.55 39.2%	2.63 38.0%	2.60 38.5%	2.62 38.2%	2.80 35.7%
yes	1.42 70.4%	1.44 69.4%	1.40 71.4%	1.44 69.4%	1.47 68.0%	1.44 69.4%	1.44 69.4%	1.43 69.9%	1.38 72.5%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.50 66.7%	1.56 64.1%	1.50 66.7%	1.50 66.7%	1.57 63.7%	1.44 69.4%
home_away	1.22 82.0%	1.31 76.3%	1.29 77.5%	1.25 80.0%	1.26 79.4%	1.22 82.0%
home_draw	1.50 66.7%	1.53 65.4%	1.44 69.4%	1.53 65.4%	1.53 65.4%	1.44 69.4%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	—	1.02 98.0%
Over 1.0	—	1.04 96.2%
Over 1.5	1.15 87.0%	1.11 90.1%
Over 1.75	—	1.14 87.7%
Over 2.0	—	1.18 84.8%
Over 2.25	—	1.35 74.1%
Over 2.5	1.50 66.7%	1.50 66.7%
Over 2.75	—	1.64 61.0%
Over 3.5	2.25 44.4%	—
Over 4.5	3.80 26.3%	—
Over 5.5	7.00 14.3%	—
Under 1.5	5.25 19.1%	—
Under 2.5	2.55 39.2%	—
Under 3.5	1.62 61.7%	—
Under 4.5	1.25 80.0%	—
Under 5.5	1.09 91.7%	—

Match center

SC Freiburg

No home-team absences found in the prematch data.

RB Leipzig

No away-team absences found in the prematch data.

Patrik Osterkhage Maksimilian Rozenfelder Yuito Sudzuki Travmirovannye Viggo Gebel Leopold Tsingerle Suleyman Sani

Match center

SC Freiburg

L D L W W

10.05 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

SC Freiburg 2:3 Hamburger SV

03.05 17:30 UTC Bundesliga

SC Freiburg 1:1 VfL Wolfsburg

26.04 15:30 UTC Bundesliga

SC Freiburg 0:4 Borussia Dortmund

19.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

SC Freiburg 2:1 1. FC Heidenheim

12.04 17:30 UTC Bundesliga

SC Freiburg 1:0 Maynts

2 Wins

1 Draws

2 Losses

1.2 Scored

1.8 Conceded

7 Points

RB Leipzig

W L W W W

09.05 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

RB Leipzig 2:1 FC St. Pauli

02.05 16:30 UTC Bundesliga

RB Leipzig 1:4 Bayer Leverkusen

24.04 18:30 UTC Bundesliga

RB Leipzig 3:1 Union Berlin

18.04 16:30 UTC Bundesliga

RB Leipzig 3:1 Eintracht Frankfurt

11.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

RB Leipzig 1:0 Borussia Mönchengladbach

4 Wins

0 Draws

1 Losses

2.0 Scored

1.4 Conceded

12 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historySC Freiburg - RB Leipzig

SC Freiburg

2 matches total

RB Leipzig

SC Freiburg: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

RB Leipzig: 2 (100%)

Biggest win RB Leipzig 0:2 (14.01 19:30 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 4 goals (1:3, 26.10 13:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0

0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

14.01 19:30 UTC

Bundesliga

Frayburg

0:2

RB Leipzig

26.10 13:30 UTC

Bundesliga

Frayburg

1:3

RB Leipzig

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 SC Freiburg

Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 RB Leipzig

33 Games 33

12 Wins 20

8 Draws 5

13 Losses 8

47 Scored 65

56 Conceded 43

44 Points 65

100.66 Attacks 105.68

44.84 Dangerous attacks 51.94

0 Big chances 0

11.85 Shots on goal 15.36

4.27 Shots on target 6.03

eniya 1.55 0.09 Sendoffs 0 Goly Yan-Niklas Beste 1:0 24' Igor Matanovich Yokhan Manzambi 2:0 26' Assan Uedraogo Yan Diomand 2:1 33' Mattias Ginter Zhordi Makengo 3:1 47' Derri Sherkhant Igor Matanovich 4:1 75' Nakazaniya Kristof Baumgartner 77'

Frayburg RB Leyptsig 33 Games 33 12 Wins 20 8 Draws 5 13 Losses 8 47 Scored 65 56 Conceded 43 44 Points 65 100.66 Attacks 105.68 44.84 Dangerous attacks 51.94 0 Big chances 0 11.85 Shots on goal 15.36 4.27 Udary v stvor 6.03 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 4.21 Uglovye 5.36 2.03 Offsaydy 1.42 9.21 Foly 9.3 48.21 % vladeniya myachom 53.94 1.52 Warnings 1.55 0.09 Sendoffs 0 Goly Yan-Niklas Beste 1:0 24' Igor Matanovich Yokhan Manzambi 2:0 26' Assan Uedraogo Yan Diomand 2:1 33' Mattias Ginter Zhordi Makengo 3:1 47' Derri Sherkhant Igor Matanovich 4:1 75' Nakazaniya Kristof Baumgartner 77'