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Bundesliga
Bundesliga Austria
05.04.2026 12:30 UTC Match prediction
05.04.2026 12:30 UTC
Finished

Bundesliga

Austria

TSV Hartberg - Red Bull Salzburg

Austria Football
Stadium Profertil Arena
TSV Hartberg
TSV Hartberg
1 : 2
Finished
Red Bull Salzburg
Red Bull Salzburg
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Red Bull Salzburg — 57%

1 · TSV Hartberg18.3%
X · draw24.4%
2 · Red Bull Salzburg ✓ Pick57.4%

Model estimate: win TSV Hartberg 18.3%, draw 24.4%, win Red Bull Salzburg 57.4%. Model favourite — Red Bull Salzburg.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction TSV Hartberg - Red Bull Salzburg April 5, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Red Bull Salzburg.

Strongest: Red Bull Salzburg - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 4.91 / X 3.92 / 2 1.63
  • 1X2 market: TSV Hartberg 19.0% / X 23.8% / Red Bull Salzburg 57.2%
  • Glicko: TSV Hartberg 18.3% / X 24.4% / Red Bull Salzburg 57.4%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 15.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.2%
1 19.0%
X 23.8%
2 ✓ Pick 57.2%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.7%
Over 2.5 54.7%
Under 2.5 45.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 57.8%
Total Under 2.5
Score 0:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 05.04.2026 12:30 UTC
Stadium Profertil Arena (Khartberg)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Red Bull Salzburg 57%
💹 Market Red Bull Salzburg 5719%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

TSV Hartberg - Red Bull Salzburg

TSV Hartberg: Win 5.50 TSV Hartberg: Draw 3.60 Red Bull Salzburg Win: 1.53 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.73 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.08 Individualnyy total golov TSV Hartberg bolshe 0.5: 1.57 Individualnyy total golov TSV Hartberg menshe 0.5: 2.25 Individualny…

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:2
Events 20
Statistics 26
Lineups 17
min Event Player Team
30' 30' Normal Goal TSV Hartberg
36' 36' Yellow Card | K. Konaté Red Bull Salzburg
46' 46' Substitution 2 | F. Krätzig | assist/sub out: Kerim-Sam Alajbegović Red Bull Salzburg
46' 46' Substitution 1 | T. Drexler | assist/sub out: S. Lainer Red Bull Salzburg
50' 50' Yellow Card | S. Lainer A. Jimenez Red Bull Salzburg
57' 57' Normal Goal | K. Konaté Red Bull Salzburg
58' 58' Normal Goal | S. Kitano | assist/sub out: E. Baidoo Red Bull Salzburg
62' 62' Substitution 1 | J. Drew | assist/sub out: M. Hoffman TSV Hartberg
Metric TSV Hartberg Red Bull Salzburg SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.15 2.01 final
Zablokirovannye udary 2 7 final
Shots off target 9 6 final
Shots on target 3 8 final
Udary vsego 14 21 final
Fouls soversheno 7 8 final
Red cards 1 0 final
Zheltye kartochki 2 3 final
TSV Hartberg #1 Alexander Schlager, #3 A. Terzić, #8 S. Kitano, #11 Y. Vertessen, #13 F. Krätzig, #18 M. Bidstrup, #20 E. Baidoo, #23 Kouakou Joane Gadou, #44 Jannik Schuster
Player Team Metric SStats
L. Pazourek Red Bull Salzburg football.player.assists 0
L. Pazourek Red Bull Salzburg Edinoborstva vyigrano 2
L. Pazourek Red Bull Salzburg Seyvy 0
L. Pazourek Red Bull Salzburg football.player.minutes_played 28
L. Pazourek Red Bull Salzburg Klyuchevye pasy 6
L. Pazourek Red Bull Salzburg Reyting (staryy) 6.3
L. Pazourek Red Bull Salzburg Shots on target 1
L. Pazourek Red Bull Salzburg Otbory vsego 4
L. Pazourek Red Bull Salzburg Yellow cards 1
A. Terzić TSV Hartberg football.player.assists 0
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
TSV Hartberg 18.6% 18.3%
Draw 23.4% 24.4% draw risk
Red Bull Salzburg 58.0% 57.4% market and model agree
xG - 0.81 : 1.65
Total 2.5 Over 15.7% - Under 84.3%
Model check - - Difference 0.01
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.01

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 18.3% / 24.4% / 57.4% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,532 / 1,564 TSV Hartberg / Red Bull Salzburg
RD 78 / 80 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.63 market consensus · no value · model 57.4%
X 3.92 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 4.91 market consensus · no value · model 18.3%
Double chance
X2 1.17 market consensus · no value · model 81.7%
12 1.23 market consensus · no value · model 75.6%
1X 2.22 market consensus · no value · model 42.6%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.20 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.01 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.62 market consensus · line only
2 +1 2.08 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.73 market consensus · no value · model 15.7%
Under 2.5 2.09 market consensus · weak value +76.1% · model 84.3%
Both teams to score
No 2.01 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.72 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
5.10 19.6% 4.65 21.5% 4.78 20.9% 5.00 20.0% 4.90 20.4% 5.00 20.0%
X 3.90 25.6% 4.00 25.0% 3.98 25.1% 3.75 26.7% 3.85 26.0% 4.00 25.0%
1.64 61.0% 1.63 61.4% 1.65 60.6% 1.62 61.7% 1.65 60.6% 1.62 61.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Marathonbet William Hill
no 2.00 50.0% 2.01 49.8% 2.02 49.5% 2.00 50.0% 2.02 49.5% 1.99 50.3% 2.05 48.8%
yes 1.70 58.8% 1.78 56.2% 1.71 58.5% 1.75 57.1% 1.72 58.1% 1.71 58.5% 1.67 59.9%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet
draw_away 1.17 85.5% 1.16 86.2% 1.17 85.5% 1.19 84.0% 1.17 85.5% 1.16 86.2%
home_away 1.20 83.3% 1.22 82.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.24 80.7% 1.22 82.0% 1.22 82.0%
home_draw 2.20 45.5% 2.19 45.7% 2.25 44.4% 2.30 43.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.19 45.7%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.04 96.2% — 1.00 100.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.00 100.0%
Over 1.25 — — 1.10 90.9%
Over 1.5 1.25 80.0% — 1.19 84.0%
Over 1.75 — — 1.24 80.7%
Over 2.0 — — 1.31 76.3%
Over 2.5 1.73 57.8% — —
Over 2.75 — 1.96 51.0% —
Over 3.5 2.80 35.7% — —
Over 4.5 5.25 19.1% — —
Under 0.5 10.00 10.0% — —
Under 1.5 3.95 25.3% — —
Under 2.5 2.10 47.6% — —
Under 2.75 — 1.92 52.1% —
Under 3.5 1.42 70.4% — —
Under 4.5 1.15 87.0% — —
Match center
TSV Hartberg
Founded 1946
Red Bull Salzburg
Founded 1933
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.