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Bundesliga Germany

02.05.2026 13:30 UTC Match prediction

02.05.2026 13:30 UTC

Finished

Bundesliga

Union Berlin - 1. FC Köln

Germany Football

Stadium Stadion An der Alten Försterei

Capacity 22 467

Union Berlin

2 : 2

Finished

1. FC Köln

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Union Berlin — 37%

1 · Union Berlin36.7%

X · draw27.3%

2 · 1. FC Köln36.0%

Model estimate: win Union Berlin 36.7%, draw 27.3%, win 1. FC Köln 36.0%. Model favourite — Union Berlin.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Union Berlin - 1. FC Köln May 2, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Union Berlin.

Strongest: Union Berlin - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.51 / X 3.40 / 2 2.77
1X2 market: Union Berlin 37.8% / X 27.9% / 1. FC Köln 34.3%
Glicko: Union Berlin 36.7% / X 27.3% / 1. FC Köln 36.0%
Total 2.5: over probability 37.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.4%

1 37.8%

X 27.9%

2 34.3%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.1%

Over 2.5 54.7%

Under 2.5 45.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: X

Main outcome X

Agreement 4/4

Confidence 28.1%

Total Under 2.5

Score 1:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Start 02.05.2026 13:30 UTC

Stadium Stadion An der Alten Försterei (Berlin)

Capacity 22,467

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Union Berlin 37%

💹 Market Union Berlin 3780%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Union Berlin - 1. FC Köln

Union Berlin: Win 2.40 Union Berlin: Draw 3.50 1. FC Köln Win: 2.80 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.91 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.91 Individualnyy total golov Union Berlin bolshe 1.5: 2.20 Individualnyy total golov Union Berlin menshe 1.5: 1.62 Individualnyy total…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 2:2

Events 19

Statistics 24

Lineups 40

min Event Player Team

31' 31' Yellow Card | E. Martel E. Martel 1. FC Köln

33' 33' Normal Goal | M. Bülter | assist/sub out: L. Waldschmidt M. Bulter 1. FC Köln

34' 34' Yellow Card | Diogo Leite Diogo Leite Union Berlin

55' 55' Yellow Card | J. Simpson-Pusey J. Simpson-Pusey 1. FC Köln

58' 58' Substitution 1 | A. Schafer | assist/sub out: Livan Burcu A. Schäfer Union Berlin

58' 58' Substitution 2 | A. Schafer | assist/sub out: Livan Burcu A. Schäfer Union Berlin

58' 58' Substitution 3 | Ilyas Ansah | assist/sub out: A. Ilić Ilyas Ansah Union Berlin

61' 61' Normal Goal | S. El Mala | assist/sub out: K. Lund S. El Mala 1. FC Köln

Metric Union Berlin 1. FC Köln SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.15 1.75 final

Zablokirovannye udary 4 0 final

Shots off target 6 4 final

Shots on target 3 4 final

Udary vsego 13 8 final

Fouls soversheno 7 10 final

Zheltye kartochki 2 3 final

Offsides 0 2 final

Union Berlin #10 Ilyas Ansah, #15 T. Rothe, #25 C. Klaus, #34 S. Nsoki, #4 Diogo Leite, #6 A. Kemlein, #7 O. Burke, #5 D. Doekhi, #8 Rani Khedira, #13 A. Schäfer, #18 J. Juranović

1. FC Köln #1 M. Schwabe, #6 E. Martel, #13 S. El Mala, #30 M. Bulter, #32 K. Lund, #5 T. Krauss, #16 J. Kaminski, #39 C. Ozkacar, #7 L. Waldschmidt, #22 J. Simpson-Pusey, #28 S. Sebulonsen

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Ilić Union Berlin Dribling popytki 5

A. Ilić Union Berlin Dribling uspeshno 1

A. Ilić Union Berlin Edinoborstva vyigrano 13

A. Ilić Union Berlin Seyvy 0

A. Ilić Union Berlin football.player.minutes_played 39

A. Ilić Union Berlin Tochnost pasov % 1

A. Ilić Union Berlin Klyuchevye pasy 5

A. Ilić Union Berlin Reyting (staryy) 7

A. Ilić Union Berlin Shots on target 1

A. Ilić Union Berlin Bloki 1

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Union Berlin 38.5% 36.7% market and model agree

Draw 29.0% 27.3% draw risk

1. FC Köln 32.5% 36.0%

xG - 1.23 : 1.22

Total 2.5 Over 37.5% - Under 62.5%

Model check - - Difference 0.04

Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.04

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 36.7% / 27.3% / 36.0% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,415 / 1,439 Union Berlin / 1. FC Köln

RD 75 / 73 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.77 market consensus · no value · model 36.0%

X 3.40 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 2.51 market consensus · no value · model 36.7%

Double chance

X2 1.52 market consensus · no value · model 63.3%

12 1.30 market consensus · no value · model 72.7%

1X 1.44 market consensus · no value · model 64.0%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.54 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.23 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 2.70 market consensus · line only

2 +1 4.53 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.74 market consensus · no value · model 37.5%

Under 2.5 2.10 market consensus · value +31.3% · model 62.5%

Both teams to score

No 2.28 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.58 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	2.46 40.7%	2.55 39.2%	2.45 40.8%	2.45 40.8%	2.67 37.5%	2.45 40.8%
X	3.35 29.9%	3.52 28.4%	3.20 31.3%	3.50 28.6%	3.40 29.4%	3.30 30.3%
	2.74 36.5%	2.95 33.9%	2.75 36.4%	2.80 35.7%	2.65 37.7%	2.80 35.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	2.35 42.6%	2.30 43.5%	2.25 44.4%	2.20 45.5%	2.35 42.6%	2.30 43.5%	2.30 43.5%	2.25 44.4%	2.25 44.4%
yes	1.55 64.5%	1.56 64.1%	1.62 61.7%	1.62 61.7%	1.55 64.5%	1.57 63.7%	1.53 65.4%	1.57 63.7%	1.58 63.3%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.53 65.4%	1.58 63.3%	1.53 65.4%	1.53 65.4%	1.50 66.7%	1.50 66.7%
home_away	1.25 80.0%	1.35 74.1%	1.33 75.2%	1.28 78.1%	1.31 76.3%	1.25 80.0%
home_draw	1.42 70.4%	1.46 68.5%	1.40 71.4%	1.40 71.4%	1.52 65.8%	1.44 69.4%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.05 95.2%	1.02 98.0%
Over 0.75	—	1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0	—	1.02 98.0%
Over 1.25	—	1.12 89.3%
Over 1.5	1.22 82.0%	1.21 82.6%
Over 1.75	—	1.26 79.4%
Over 2.0	—	1.32 75.8%
Over 2.25	—	1.60 62.5%
Over 2.5	1.70 58.8%	—
Over 3.5	2.70 37.0%	—
Over 4.5	5.00 20.0%	—
Under 0.5	9.50 10.5%	—
Under 1.5	4.00 25.0%	—
Under 2.5	2.10 47.6%	—
Under 3.5	1.44 69.4%	—
Under 4.5	1.17 85.5%	—

Match center

Union Berlin

Founded 1966

1. FC Köln

Founded 1948

Match center

Union Berlin

L L L D L

24.04 18:30 UTC Bundesliga

Union Berlin 1:3 RB Leipzig

18.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

Union Berlin 1:2 VfL Wolfsburg

11.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

Union Berlin 1:3 1. FC Heidenheim

05.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

Union Berlin 1:1 FC St. Pauli

21.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Union Berlin 0:4 Bavariya

0 Wins

1 Draws

4 Losses

0.8 Scored

2.6 Conceded

1 Points

1. FC Köln

L D W D D

25.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

1. FC Köln 1:2 Bayer Leverkusen

17.04 18:30 UTC Bundesliga

1. FC Köln 1:1 FC St. Pauli

12.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga

1. FC Köln 3:1 Werder Bremen

05.04 15:30 UTC Bundesliga

1. FC Köln 2:2 Eintracht Frankfurt

21.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

1. FC Köln 3:3 Borussia Mönchengladbach

1 Wins

3 Draws

1 Losses

2.0 Scored

1.8 Conceded

6 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyUnion Berlin - 1. FC Köln

Union Berlin

1 matches total

1. FC Köln

Union Berlin: 1 (100%)

Draws:0 (0%)

1. FC Köln: 0 (0%)

Biggest win Union Berlin 1:0 (20.12 14:30 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 1 goals (1:0, 20.12 14:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 0

0 Goals conceded 1

Match history

20.12 14:30 UTC

Bundesliga

Union Berlin

1:0

1. FC Köln

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.