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Bundesliga Germany

21.02.2026 14:30 UTC Match prediction

21.02.2026 14:30 UTC

Finished

Bundesliga

Union Berlin - Bayer Leverkusen

Germany Football

Union Berlin

1 : 0

Finished

Bayer Leverkusen

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Union Berlin - Bayer Leverkusen February 21, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Bayer Leverkusen.

Line favourite market consensus: Bayer Leverkusen. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.05 / X 3.40 / 2 2.39
1X2 market: Union Berlin 31.5% / X 28.3% / Bayer Leverkusen 40.2%
Total 2.5: over probability 50.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.0%

1 31.5%

X 28.3%

2 40.2%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 3.1%

Over 2.5 50.0%

Under 2.5 50.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 21.02.2026 14:30 UTC

Match center

Union Berlin - Bayer Leverkusen

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.39 market consensus · line only

X 3.41 market consensus · line only

1 3.06 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 1.39 market consensus · line only

12 1.35 market consensus · line only

1X 1.60 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.40 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.14 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 2.36 market consensus · line only

2 +1 3.64 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.94 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 1.94 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 2.09 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.70 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	3.11 32.2%
X	3.44 29.1%
	2.41 41.5%

Match Winner

Outcome	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Marathonbet	Pinnacle	SStats Consensus
	3.00 33.3%	3.15 31.8%	3.00 33.3%	3.10 32.3%	3.11 32.2%	3.11 32.2%
X	3.50 28.6%	3.46 28.9%	3.30 30.3%	3.42 29.2%	3.44 29.1%	3.44 29.1%
	2.38 42.0%	2.45 40.8%	2.38 42.0%	2.40 41.7%	2.41 41.5%	2.41 41.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Marathonbet	Pinnacle	William Hill
no	2.15 46.5%	2.05 48.8%	2.05 48.8%	2.06 48.5%	2.20 45.5%	2.05 48.8%
yes	1.71 58.5%	1.70 58.8%	1.70 58.8%	1.68 59.5%	1.73 57.8%	1.67 59.9%

Double chance

Outcome	1xBet	Bet365	Marathonbet	Pinnacle	SStats Consensus	William Hill
draw_away	1.41 70.9%	1.36 73.5%	1.41 70.9%	1.41 70.9%	1.41 70.9%	1.36 73.5%
home_away	1.36 73.5%	1.33 75.2%	1.35 74.1%	1.35 74.1%	1.35 74.1%	1.33 75.2%
home_draw	1.62 61.7%	1.53 65.4%	1.62 61.7%	1.63 61.4%	1.63 61.4%	1.57 63.7%

Match center

Union Berlin

L D L L D

14.02 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Union Berlin 2:3 Hamburger SV

06.02 19:30 UTC Bundesliga

Union Berlin 1:1 Eintracht Frankfurt

31.01 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Union Berlin 1:3 1899 Hoffenheim

24.01 17:30 UTC Bundesliga

Union Berlin 0:3 Borussia Dortmund

18.01 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Union Berlin 1:1 VfB Stuttgart

0 Wins

2 Draws

3 Losses

1.0 Scored

2.2 Conceded

2 Points

Bayer Leverkusen

W D W W L

14.02 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen 4:0 FC St. Pauli

07.02 17:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen 1:1 Borussia Mönchengladbach

31.01 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen 3:1 Eintracht Frankfurt

24.01 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen 1:0 Werder Bremen

17.01 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen 0:1 1899 Hoffenheim

3 Wins

1 Draws

1 Losses

1.8 Scored

0.6 Conceded

10 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyUnion Berlin - Bayer Leverkusen

Union Berlin

2 matches total

Bayer Leverkusen

Union Berlin: 0 (0%)

Draws:1 (50%)

Bayer Leverkusen: 1 (50%)

Biggest win Bayer Leverkusen 0:2 (04.10 13:30 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 2 goals (0:2, 04.10 13:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 0:0 (12.04 13:30 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 2

2 Goals conceded 0

Match history

04.10 13:30 UTC

Bundesliga

Union Berlin

0:2

Bayer Leverkusen

12.04 13:30 UTC

Bundesliga

Union Berlin

0:0

Bayer Leverkusen