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Bundesliga Germany

05.04.2026 13:30 UTC Match prediction

05.04.2026 13:30 UTC

Finished

Bundesliga

Union Berlin - FC St. Pauli

Germany Football

Stadium Stadion An der Alten Försterei

Capacity 22 467

Union Berlin

1 : 1

Finished

FC St. Pauli

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Union Berlin — 47%

1 · Union Berlin46.7%

X · draw27.1%

2 · FC St. Pauli26.2%

Model estimate: win Union Berlin 46.7%, draw 27.1%, win FC St. Pauli 26.2%. Model favourite — Union Berlin.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Union Berlin - FC St. Pauli April 5, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Union Berlin.

Strongest: Union Berlin - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.23 / X 3.08 / 2 3.53
1X2 market: Union Berlin 42.4% / X 30.8% / FC St. Pauli 26.8%
Glicko: Union Berlin 46.7% / X 27.1% / FC St. Pauli 26.2%
Total 2.5: over probability 35.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.6%

1 42.4%

X 30.7%

2 26.8%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.5%

Over 2.5 38.1%

Under 2.5 61.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 4/4

Confidence 45.9%

Total Under 2.5

Score 1:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Start 05.04.2026 13:30 UTC

Stadium Stadion An der Alten Försterei (Berlin)

Capacity 22,467

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Union Berlin 47%

💹 Market Union Berlin 4239%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Union Berlin - FC St. Pauli

Union Berlin: Win 2.15 Union Berlin: Draw 3.25 FC St. Pauli Win: 3.70 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.50 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.53 Individualnyy total golov Union Berlin bolshe 1.5: 2.50 Individualnyy total golov Union Berlin menshe 1.5: 1.50 Individualnyy tot…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 1:1

Events 11

Statistics 26

Lineups 40

min Event Player Team

25' 25' Normal Goal | Mathias Pereira Lage L. Zingerle FC St. Pauli

52' 52' Normal Goal | Andrej Ilić | assist/sub out: Derrick Köhn Union Berlin

60' 60' Substitution 1 | Martijn Kaars | assist/sub out: Andreas Hountondji FC St. Pauli

73' 73' Substitution 1 | Woo-Yeong Jeong | assist/sub out: Alex Král L. Mugni Union Berlin

74' 74' Substitution 2 | Joel Chima Fujita | assist/sub out: Connor Metcalfe FC St. Pauli

81' 81' Substitution 3 | Derrick Köhn | assist/sub out: Tom Rothe Union Berlin

81' 81' Substitution 2 | Derrick Köhn | assist/sub out: Tom Rothe Union Berlin

86' 86' Yellow Card | Jackson Irvine G. Ilenikhena FC St. Pauli

Metric Union Berlin FC St. Pauli SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2 0.33 final

Zablokirovannye udary 4 4 final

Shots off target 4 3 final

Shots on target 8 2 final

Udary vsego 16 9 final

Fouls soversheno 10 8 final

Red cards 0 1 final

Zheltye kartochki 0 2 final

Union Berlin #1 F. Rønnow, #4 Diogo Leite, #5 D. Doekhi, #7 O. Burke, #8 Rani Khedira, #11 Jeong Woo-Yeong, #13 A. Schäfer, #14 L. Querfeld, #19 J. Haberer, #23 A. Ilić, #39 D. Köhn

FC St. Pauli #3 K. Mets, #5 H. Wahl, #7 J. Irvine, #10 D. Sinani, #11 A. Pyrka, #16 J. Fujita, #19 M. Kaars, #20 M. Rasmussen, #22 N. Vasilj, #25 A. Dźwigała, #28 Mathias Pereira Lage

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Ilić Union Berlin Dribling popytki 16

A. Ilić Union Berlin Dribling uspeshno 3

A. Ilić Union Berlin Edinoborstva vyigrano 25

A. Ilić Union Berlin Fouls soversheno 4

A. Ilić Union Berlin football.player.goals 1

A. Ilić Union Berlin Conceded golov 2

A. Ilić Union Berlin Seyvy 0

A. Ilić Union Berlin football.player.minutes_played 93

A. Ilić Union Berlin Tochnost pasov % 1

A. Ilić Union Berlin Klyuchevye pasy 18

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Union Berlin 45.0% 46.7% market and model agree

Draw 30.2% 27.1% draw risk

FC St. Pauli 24.8% 26.2%

xG - 1.40 : 0.97

Total 2.5 Over 35.8% - Under 64.3%

Model check - - Difference 0.03

Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 46.7% / 27.1% / 26.2% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,454 / 1,406 Union Berlin / FC St. Pauli

RD 78 / 78 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 3.53 market consensus · no value · model 26.2%

X 3.08 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 2.23 market consensus · weak value +4.1% · model 46.7%

Double chance

X2 1.64 market consensus · no value · model 53.3%

12 1.35 market consensus · no value · model 72.9%

1X 1.30 market consensus · no value · model 73.8%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.69 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.28 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 3.47 market consensus · line only

2 +1 7.13 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.49 market consensus · no value · model 35.8%

Under 2.5 1.53 market consensus · no value · model 64.3%

Both teams to score

No 1.70 market consensus · line only

Yes 2.06 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
	2.22 45.1%	2.28 43.9%	2.32 43.1%	2.20 45.5%	2.25 44.4%	2.30 43.5%
X	3.05 32.8%	3.00 33.3%	3.23 31.0%	2.90 34.5%	3.20 31.3%	3.05 32.8%
	3.40 29.4%	3.70 27.0%	3.64 27.5%	3.40 29.4%	3.40 29.4%	3.50 28.6%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet
no	1.73 57.8%	1.79 55.9%	1.70 58.8%	1.67 59.9%	1.70 58.8%	1.72 58.1%	1.75 57.1%	1.67 59.9%	1.68 59.5%
yes	2.05 48.8%	2.03 49.3%	2.06 48.5%	2.05 48.8%	2.05 48.8%	2.05 48.8%	2.00 50.0%	2.05 48.8%	2.06 48.5%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.62 61.7%	1.68 59.5%	1.62 61.7%	1.67 59.9%	1.65 60.6%	1.57 63.7%
home_away	1.30 76.9%	1.40 71.4%	1.36 73.5%	1.33 75.2%	1.36 73.5%	1.30 76.9%
home_draw	1.30 76.9%	1.33 75.2%	1.30 76.9%	1.28 78.1%	1.33 75.2%	1.29 77.5%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.10 90.9%	—	1.06 94.3%
Over 0.75	—	—	1.08 92.6%
Over 1.0	—	—	1.11 90.1%
Over 1.25	—	—	1.29 77.5%
Over 1.5	1.48 67.6%	—	1.50 66.7%
Over 1.75	—	—	1.60 62.5%
Over 2.0	—	1.91 52.4%	—
Over 2.5	2.45 40.8%	—	—
Over 3.5	4.75 21.1%	—	—
Over 4.5	9.50 10.5%	—	—
Under 0.5	6.50 15.4%	—	—
Under 1.5	2.60 38.5%	—	—
Under 2.0	—	1.99 50.3%	—
Under 2.5	1.53 65.4%	—	—
Under 3.5	1.18 84.8%	—	—
Under 4.5	1.05 95.2%	—	—

Match center

Union Berlin

Founded 1966

FC St. Pauli

Founded 1910

Match center

Union Berlin

RS R. Skov Muscle Injury

MR M. Raab Hand Injury

FC St. Pauli

ES E. Smith Injury

MS M. Saliakas Thigh Injury

Union Berlin Founded: 1966

FC St. Pauli Founded: 1910

Match center

Union Berlin

L W L L W

21.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Union Berlin 0:4 Bavariya

15.03 16:30 UTC Bundesliga

Union Berlin 1:0 Frayburg

08.03 16:30 UTC Bundesliga

Union Berlin 1:4 Werder Bremen

28.02 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Union Berlin 0:1 Borussia Mönchengladbach

21.02 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Union Berlin 1:0 Bayer Leverkusen

2 Wins

0 Draws

3 Losses

0.6 Scored

1.8 Conceded

6 Points

FC St. Pauli

L L D W W

22.03 16:30 UTC Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli 1:2 Frayburg

13.03 19:30 UTC Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli 0:2 Borussia Mönchengladbach

08.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli 0:0 Eintracht Frankfurt

28.02 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli 1:0 1899 Hoffenheim

22.02 16:30 UTC Bundesliga

FC St. Pauli 2:1 Werder Bremen

2 Wins

1 Draws

2 Losses

0.8 Scored

1.0 Conceded

7 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyUnion Berlin - FC St. Pauli

Union Berlin

1 matches total

FC St. Pauli

Union Berlin: 1 (100%)

Draws:0 (0%)

FC St. Pauli: 0 (0%)

Biggest win Union Berlin 1:0 (23.11 16:30 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 1 goals (1:0, 23.11 16:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 0

0 Goals conceded 1

Match history

23.11 16:30 UTC

Bundesliga

Union Berlin

1:0

FC St. Pauli

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.