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Bundesliga Germany

10.01.2026 14:30 UTC Match prediction

10.01.2026 14:30 UTC

Finished

Bundesliga

Union Berlin - FSV Mainz 05

Germany Football

Union Berlin

2 : 2

Finished

FSV Mainz 05

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Union Berlin - FSV Mainz 05 January 10, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Union Berlin.

Line favourite market consensus: Union Berlin. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.19 / X 3.19 / 2 3.71
1X2 market: Union Berlin 43.9% / X 30.2% / FSV Mainz 05 25.9%
Total 2.5: over probability 58.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.0%

1 43.9%

X 30.2%

2 25.9%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 3.5%

Over 2.5 41.8%

Under 2.5 58.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 10.01.2026 14:30 UTC

Match center

Union Berlin - FSV Mainz 05

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 0 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 3.72 market consensus · line only

X 3.19 market consensus · line only

1 2.19 market consensus · line only

Double chance

X2 1.72 market consensus · line only

12 1.38 market consensus · line only

1X 1.30 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.73 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.31 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 3.61 market consensus · line only

2 +1 7.33 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.31 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 1.66 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.82 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.94 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome	SStats Consensus
	2.20 45.5%
X	3.23 31.0%
	3.79 26.4%

Match Winner

Outcome	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Marathonbet	Pinnacle	SStats Consensus
	2.17 46.1%	2.25 44.4%	2.15 46.5%	2.21 45.3%	2.20 45.5%	2.20 45.5%
X	3.20 31.3%	3.25 30.8%	3.20 31.3%	3.20 31.3%	3.23 31.0%	3.23 31.0%
	3.75 26.7%	3.80 26.3%	3.60 27.8%	3.74 26.7%	3.79 26.4%	3.79 26.4%

Both teams to score

Outcome	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Marathonbet	Pinnacle	William Hill
no	1.84 54.4%	1.80 55.6%	1.80 55.6%	1.79 55.9%	1.88 53.2%	1.83 54.6%
yes	1.97 50.8%	1.92 52.1%	1.95 51.3%	1.92 52.1%	2.00 50.0%	1.85 54.1%

Double chance

Outcome	1xBet	Bet365	Marathonbet	Pinnacle	SStats Consensus	William Hill
draw_away	1.72 58.1%	1.67 59.9%	1.73 57.8%	1.74 57.5%	1.74 57.5%	1.70 58.8%
home_away	1.39 71.9%	1.36 73.5%	1.40 71.4%	1.39 71.9%	1.39 71.9%	1.36 73.5%
home_draw	1.31 76.3%	1.28 78.1%	1.31 76.3%	1.30 76.9%	1.30 76.9%	1.29 77.5%

Match center

Union Berlin

W W L L W

20.12 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Union Berlin 1:0 1. FC Köln

12.12 19:30 UTC Bundesliga

Union Berlin 3:1 RB Leipzig

06.12 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Union Berlin 1:3 VfL Wolfsburg

29.11 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

Union Berlin 1:2 1. FC Heidenheim

23.11 16:30 UTC Bundesliga

Union Berlin 1:0 FC St. Pauli

3 Wins

0 Draws

2 Losses

1.4 Scored

1.2 Conceded

9 Points

FSV Mainz 05

D D L L D

21.12 14:30 UTC Bundesliga

FSV Mainz 05 0:0 FC St. Pauli

14.12 16:30 UTC Bundesliga

FSV Mainz 05 2:2 Bavariya

05.12 19:30 UTC Bundesliga

FSV Mainz 05 0:1 Borussia Mönchengladbach

30.11 18:30 UTC Bundesliga

FSV Mainz 05 0:4 Frayburg

21.11 19:30 UTC Bundesliga

FSV Mainz 05 1:1 1899 Hoffenheim

0 Wins

3 Draws

2 Losses

0.6 Scored

1.6 Conceded

3 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyUnion Berlin - FSV Mainz 05

Union Berlin

0 matches total

FSV Mainz 05

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Union Berlin - FSV Mainz 05

AI match prediction Union Berlin - FSV Mainz 05 January 10, 2026

Fair probability (no margin)

Buy the full AI analysis

Union Berlin - FSV Mainz 05

What data is collected and where it is shown

Match markets

Market 1

Match Winner

Both teams to score

Double chance

Match history