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Bundesliga
Bundesliga Germany
18.04.2026 13:30 UTC Match prediction Prediction
18.04.2026 13:30 UTC
Finished

Bundesliga

Germany

Union Berlin - VfL Wolfsburg

Germany Football
Stadium Stadion An der Alten Försterei
Capacity 22 467
Union Berlin
Union Berlin
1 : 2
Finished
VfL Wolfsburg
VfL Wolfsburg
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Union Berlin — 45%

1 · Union Berlin44.7%
X · draw26.4%
2 · VfL Wolfsburg28.9%

Model estimate: win Union Berlin 44.7%, draw 26.4%, win VfL Wolfsburg 28.9%. Model favourite — Union Berlin.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Union Berlin - VfL Wolfsburg April 18, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Union Berlin.

Strongest: Union Berlin - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.18 / X 3.54 / 2 3.21
  • 1X2 market: Union Berlin 43.6% / X 26.8% / VfL Wolfsburg 29.6%
  • Glicko: Union Berlin 44.7% / X 26.4% / VfL Wolfsburg 28.9%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 37.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.3%
1 43.6%
X 26.8%
2 29.6%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.8%
Over 2.5 51.6%
Under 2.5 48.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 44.6%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 18.04.2026 13:30 UTC
Stadium Stadion An der Alten Försterei (Berlin)
Capacity 22,467

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Union Berlin 45%
💹 Market Union Berlin 4357%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Union Berlin - VfL Wolfsburg

Union Berlin: Win 2.15 Union Berlin: Draw 3.60 VfL Wolfsburg Win: 3.25 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.91 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.91 Individualnyy total golov Union Berlin bolshe 1.5: 2.00 Individualnyy total golov Union Berlin menshe 1.5: 1.73 Individualnyy to…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:2
Events 15
Statistics 24
Lineups 40
min Event Player Team
11' 11' Normal Goal | Patrick Wimmer | assist/sub out: Joakim Mæhle VfL Wolfsburg
46' 46' Normal Goal VfL Wolfsburg
58' 58' Yellow Card | Jeanuël Belocian VfL Wolfsburg
68' 68' Substitution 1 | Ilyas Ansah | assist/sub out: Tim Skarke Union Berlin
68' 68' Substitution 2 | Tom Rothe | assist/sub out: Derrick Köhn Union Berlin
71' 71' Substitution 1 | Patrick Wimmer | assist/sub out: Yannick Gerhardt VfL Wolfsburg
71' 71' Substitution 2 | Mohamed Amoura | assist/sub out: Adam Daghim VfL Wolfsburg
75' 75' Substitution 3 | Aljoscha Kemlein | assist/sub out: András Schäfer Union Berlin
Metric Union Berlin VfL Wolfsburg SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.79 0.19 final
Zablokirovannye udary 5 0 final
Shots off target 13 1 final
Shots on target 7 4 final
Udary vsego 25 5 final
Fouls soversheno 13 15 final
Zheltye kartochki 1 1 final
Offsides 0 1 final
Union Berlin #1 K. Grabara, #3 D. Vavro, #4 K. Koulierakis, #5 Vinicius Souza, #6 J. Belocian, #9 M. Amoura, #17 D. Pejčinović, #21 J. Mæhle, #24 C. Eriksen, #25 A. Zehnter, #39 Patrick Wimmer
VfL Wolfsburg #1 F. Rønnow, #4 Diogo Leite, #5 D. Doekhi, #6 A. Kemlein, #7 O. Burke, #8 Rani Khedira, #10 Ilyas Ansah, #14 L. Querfeld, #15 T. Rothe, #23 A. Ilić, #28 C. Trimmel
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Ilić VfL Wolfsburg football.player.assists 1
A. Ilić VfL Wolfsburg Dribling popytki 5
A. Ilić VfL Wolfsburg Edinoborstva vyigrano 14
A. Ilić VfL Wolfsburg Fouls soversheno 3
A. Ilić VfL Wolfsburg Seyvy 0
A. Ilić VfL Wolfsburg football.player.minutes_played 94
A. Ilić VfL Wolfsburg Tochnost pasov % 2
A. Ilić VfL Wolfsburg Klyuchevye pasy 12
A. Ilić VfL Wolfsburg Pasy vsego 1
A. Ilić VfL Wolfsburg Reyting (staryy) 6.7
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Union Berlin 44.4% 44.7% market and model agree
Draw 26.3% 26.4% draw risk
VfL Wolfsburg 29.4% 28.9%
xG - 1.43 : 1.09
Total 2.5 Over 37.5% - Under 62.5%
Model check - - Difference 0.01
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.01

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 44.7% / 26.4% / 28.9% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,433 / 1,384 Union Berlin / VfL Wolfsburg
RD 76 / 76 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.21 market consensus · no value · model 28.9%
X 3.54 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.18 market consensus · no value · model 44.7%
Double chance
X2 1.68 market consensus · no value · model 55.3%
12 1.28 market consensus · no value · model 73.6%
1X 1.34 market consensus · no value · model 71.1%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.69 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.32 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.10 market consensus · line only
2 +1 5.65 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.85 market consensus · no value · model 37.5%
Under 2.5 1.97 market consensus · value +23.1% · model 62.5%
Both teams to score
No 2.12 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.68 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
2.18 45.9% 2.21 45.3% 2.23 44.8% 2.10 47.6% 2.20 45.5% 2.22 45.1%
X 3.45 29.0% 3.75 26.7% 3.71 27.0% 3.40 29.4% 3.60 27.8% 3.50 28.6%
3.10 32.3% 3.10 32.3% 3.37 29.7% 3.10 32.3% 3.20 31.3% 3.20 31.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 2.10 47.6% 2.12 47.2% 2.11 47.4% 2.15 46.5% 2.05 48.8% 2.12 47.2% 2.20 45.5% 2.10 47.6% 2.08 48.1%
yes 1.70 58.8% 1.73 57.8% 1.67 59.9% 1.70 58.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.67 59.9% 1.62 61.7% 1.65 60.6% 1.67 59.9%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.65 60.6% 1.74 57.5% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.70 58.8% 1.62 61.7%
home_away 1.25 80.0% 1.32 75.8% 1.30 76.9% 1.28 78.1% 1.29 77.5% 1.25 80.0%
home_draw 1.35 74.1% 1.37 73.0% 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2% 1.37 73.0% 1.30 76.9%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.05 95.2% — 1.02 98.0%
Over 0.75 — — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.25 — — 1.13 88.5%
Over 1.5 1.28 78.1% — 1.24 80.7%
Over 1.75 — — 1.30 76.9%
Over 2.5 1.85 54.1% 1.89 52.9% —
Over 3.5 3.25 30.8% — —
Over 4.5 6.25 16.0% — —
Under 0.5 9.50 10.5% — —
Under 1.5 3.55 28.2% — —
Under 2.5 1.90 52.6% 2.01 49.8% —
Under 3.5 1.33 75.2% — —
Under 4.5 1.11 90.1% — —
Match center
Union Berlin
Founded 1966
VfL Wolfsburg
Founded 1945
Match center
Union Berlin
L D L W L
11.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Union Berlin 1:3 1. FC Heidenheim1. FC Heidenheim
05.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
Union Berlin 1:1 FC St. PauliFC St. Pauli
21.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga
Union Berlin 0:4 BavariyaBavariya
15.03 16:30 UTC Bundesliga
Union Berlin 1:0 FrayburgFrayburg
08.03 16:30 UTC Bundesliga
Union Berlin 1:4 Werder BremenWerder Bremen
1 Wins
1 Draws
3 Losses
0.8 Scored
2.4 Conceded
4 Points
VfL Wolfsburg
L L L D L
11.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
VfL Wolfsburg 1:2 Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt
04.04 13:30 UTC Bundesliga
VfL Wolfsburg 3:6 Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen
21.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga
VfL Wolfsburg 0:1 Werder BremenWerder Bremen
14.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga
VfL Wolfsburg 1:1 1899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim
07.03 14:30 UTC Bundesliga
VfL Wolfsburg 1:2 Hamburger SVHamburger SV
0 Wins
1 Draws
4 Losses
1.2 Scored
2.4 Conceded
1 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyUnion Berlin - VfL Wolfsburg

Union Berlin
2 matches total
VfL Wolfsburg
Union Berlin: 1 (50%)
Draws:0 (0%)
VfL Wolfsburg: 1 (50%)
Biggest win VfL Wolfsburg 1:3 (06.12 14:30 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 4 goals (1:3, 06.12 14:30 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

2 Goals scored 3
3 Goals conceded 2

Match history

06.12 14:30 UTC Bundesliga
Union Berlin
1:3
VfL Wolfsburg
06.04 15:30 UTC Bundesliga
Union Berlin
1:0
VfL Wolfsburg
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.